ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF PLANTED FORESTS IN THE GLOBAL FOREST ECONOMY

Transcription

1 ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF PLANTED FORESTS IN THE GLOBAL FOREST ECONOMY Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zhu University of Wisconsin-Madison With support from USDA Forest Service, Jeff Prestemon

2 Objectives Wood production -World -Regions & countries Planted forests magnitude => Effects on markets -Roundwood -Manuf. products -Welfare Effects on natural forests

3 Plan Theory Model and data Results

4 P Theory 1

5 Theory 2

6 GFPM Dynamic spatial economic model 180 countries Forest area, stock 14 commodities + CO 2 e Production Consumption Imports, exports Prices Current version 2013

7 GFPM Product Flows Raw material Intermediate product Final product Fuelwood Fuelwood Industrial wood Sawnwood Plywood Inventory CO 2 e Other fibre pulp Waste paper Mechanical pulp Chemical pulp Particleboard Fiberboard Newsprint Printing paper Other paper

8 Market surplus: Static phase D ik max( P i, k 0 ik ( D ik ) dd ik Y ik m i, k 0 ik ( Y ik ) dy ik c i, j, k ijk T ijk ) Equilibrium: j T jik Y ik D ik n a ikn Y in j T ijk i, k Dual => P ik

9 DATA Base year = 2009 (FAOSTAT, 2012) Resources = FRA 2010 (FAO, 2010) Elasticities I-O coefficients <= Manuf. costs

10 Wood supply shift With planted forests P Q Without planted forests P Q 1 L( f ) From Planted forests

11 Planted forests production vs area L(F) L(F)=F 1-1/α US south Landes F

12 Forest Area Roundwood production Total Planted Total Planted million ha million m3 Brazil % % Russian Fed % % Canada % % Indonesia % % United States % % Chile % % South Africa % % New Zealand % % Portugal % % China % % Japan % % Germany % % United Kingdom % % DEVELOPED % % DEVELOPING % % WORLD % %

13 Price effects without <= P with Q

14 World prices With Without Difference $/m3 Fuelwood % Industrial roundwood % Sawnwood % Veneer & plywood % Particleboard % Fiberboard % $/t Mechanical pulp % Chemical pulp % Other fiber pulp % Waste paper % Newsprint % Printing & writing paper % Other paper & paperboard %

15 Effects on fuelwood

16 Effects of planted forests on Fuelwood Δ Consumption Δ Production 1000 m m3 AFRICA % % N/C AMERICA % % S AMERICA % % ASIA % % OCEANIA 291 3% % EUROPE % % EU % % Portugal 39 7% 45 8% DEVELOPED % % DEVELOPING % % WORLD % % Elasticity=-0.10

17 Effects on industrial roundwood

18 Impact of planted forests on Industrial roundwood Δ Consumption Δ Production 1000 m m3 % AFRICA % 661 1% N/C AMERICA % % SOUTH AMERICA % % ASIA % % OCEANIA % % EUROPE % % EU % % Portugal % % DEVELOPED % % DEVELOPING % % WORLD % %

19 Effects on natural forests

20 Impact of planted forests on harvest in natural forests Δ Harvest (Million m3) AFRICA % N/C AMERICA % SOUTH AMERICA % ASIA % OCEANIA % EUROPE % EU % Portugal % DEVELOPED % DEVELOPING % WORLD % Vs from planted

21 Impact on solid wood products Sawnwood Veneer & plywood Particleboard Fiberboard

22 Effects of planted forests on Sawnwood and panels Δ Consumption Δ Production 1000 m3 % 1000 m3 % AFRICA 425 2% % N/C AMERICA % % SOUTH AMERICA % % ASIA % % OCEANIA 252 2% % EUROPE % % EU % % Portugal 74 3% % DEVELOPED % % DEVELOPING % % WORLD % % Elasticity -0.22

23 Effects on pulp and paper Newsprint Printing & writing paper Other paper & paperboard Mechanical pulp Chemical pulp Waste paper Other fiber pulp

24 Effects of planted forests on Wood Pulp Δ Consumption Δ Production 1000 t % 1000 t % AFRICA % % N/C AMERICA % % SOUTH AMERICA % % ASIA % % OCEANIA 5 0% % EUROPE % % EU % % Portugal % % DEVELOPED % % DEVELOPING % % WORLD % %

25 Effects of planted forests on Paper and paperboard Consumption Production 1000 t % 1000 t % AFRICA 86 1% % N/C AMERICA % % SOUTH AMERICA 181 1% 992 7% ASIA % % OCEANIA 62 1% -13 0% EUROPE % % EU % % Portugal 14 1% % DEVELOPED % % DEVELOPING % % WORLD % % Elasticity -0.26

26 Effect of planted forests on consumer and producer surplus ΔConsumers Δ Producers Δ Total (million$) (million$) $/ha/y $/ha AFRICA N/C AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA ASIA OCEANIA EUROPE EU Portugal DEVELOPED DEVELOPING WORLD

27 Welfare effects Consumer surplus without P with P Producer surplus Q Q

28 Effect of planted forests on consumer and producer surplus Consumers Producers Total Million $ million $ million $ $/ha/y $/ha AFRICA N/C AMERICA S AMERICA ASIA OCEANIA EUROPE EU Portugal DEVELOPED DEVELOPING WORLD

29 Conclusion Planted forests effects Supply shift (Lorenz curve) Equilibrium reaction (GFPM) Prices End product consumption Wood & intermediate consumption & production Welfare consumers, producers, Net ~ $10,000/ha Harvest natural forests 26% Biodiversity Carbon sequestration

30 Thank you!