3/2/15. Climate defines biomes. Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate. Section 5: Habitats, Communities, Ecosystems

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1 Section 5: Habitats, Communities, Ecosystems Reading: Ch 3 (coral bleaching, ocean acidification, polar bear habitat); Ch 5 Learning outcomes understand definitions related to ecosystems explain how climate change affects biomes, and what the impacts are to ecosystem processes discuss examples of how climate change affects tropical, temperate, polar, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, and what the consequences of these changes are 1 Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate (a) Higher NAO -> deeper snow -> hunting in larger pack (b) larger pack size -> inc. kill efficiency per pack and per wolf (c) larger packs, inc. kill efficiency -> fewer moose (d) fewer moose -> higher fir growth Post et al., Climate defines biomes 3 1

2 Climate defines biomes 4 Cascading impacts of changes: Arid ecosystems Increase in shrubs Higher than average winter precip during Brown et al., 1997 Cascading impacts of changes: Arid ecosystems Increases, decreases, and no change in animal populations Increase in shrubs rodents rodents ants 6 Brown et al.,

3 Evidence for biome shift: Tree expansion at northern treeline Beck et al., Evidence for biome shift: Tree expansion at northern treeline Why does this figure provide evidence supporting tree expansion at northern treeline? Beck et al., Recent shrub expansion in the Arctic Sturm et al.,

4 Boreal Conifer Forest Desert Ice Temperate Broadleaf Forest Temperate Conifer Forest Temperate Grassland Temperate Mixed Forest Slide Climate courtesy Change M. Ecology Jennings, TNC Temperate Woodland Tropical Deciduous Broadleaf Forest Tropical Evergreen Broadleaf Forest Tropical Grassland Tropical Woodland Tundra and Alpine Water Source: 10 The Nature Conservancy Climate Change Prof. Initiative J. Hicke Boreal Conifer Forest Desert Ice Temperate Broadleaf Forest Temperate Conifer Forest Temperate Grassland Temperate Mixed Forest Slide Climate courtesy Change M. Ecology Jennings, TNC Temperate Woodland Tropical Deciduous Broadleaf Forest Tropical Evergreen Broadleaf Forest Tropical Grassland Tropical Woodland Tundra and Alpine Water Source: 11 The Nature Conservancy Climate Change Prof. Initiative J. Hicke Uncertainty in projected future shifts of biomes: LPJ model, two climate change scenarios HADCM3 A2 ECHAM5 B1 IPCC, WG II, AR4 12 4

5 Impact of biome shift on ecosystem functioning: Arctic shrub expansion Sturm et al., Impact of biome shift on ecosystem functioning: Arctic shrub expansion Sturm et al., Impact of biome shift on ecosystem functioning: Arctic shrub expansion more soil biological activity projected in future Sturm et al.,

6 Impact of biome shift on ecosystem functioning New Mexico Environmental Gradient C source C sink C sequestration plant growth Desert Grass; Desert Shrub; Juniper Savanna; Pinyon-Juniper; Ponderosa Pine; Subalpine Conifer Anderson-Teixeira 16 et al., 2011 Tropical ecosystems: cloud forests Projected changes in clouds wind Effects of dry periods on animals in cloud forest Hannah, Temperate forest ecosystems Shifts in range of ponderosa pine Hannah,

7 Climate influences regional fire years For roughly the past four centuries, regional fire years were ones of warm springs that were followed by dry summers (Figure 5). Morgan et al., Early snowmelt and longer, drier summers => more large fires Westerling et al Science 2006, Running, Science 2006 Climate is a major driver of Canadian wildfires Canadian GCM Hadley GCM Flannigan et al.,

8 Wildfire: Projec ons based on future climate change increase in burned area for 1º C increase in temperature Li ell et al., Ecological Applica ons, 2009; Na onal Academies, Climate Stabiliza on Targets, Projected future wildfire frequency Gonzales et al., Observed tree dieoff from climate change IPCC AR5, WG 2,

9 Drought: Texas drought in 2011 Dr. Ron Billings, Texas Forest Service 25 Drought: Pinyon pine dieoff in Southwest in 2000s Jemez Climate Mts. Change near Ecology Los Alamos, October Photo: Craig D. Allen, Prof. J. USGS Hicke Drought: Pinyon pine dieoff in Southwest in 2000s Breshears et al.,

10 Drought: Tree dieoff in Southwest Warming: higher evapotranspiration Southwest Climate bark beetles s drought 58 Temperature Precipitation Average Annual Temperature (Fareinheit) s drought Average Precip (In) Breshears et al. PNAS, October 18, 2005, vol. 102, no. 42, , and graphic from Neil Cobb 28 Drought: Tree dieoff in Southwest evapora ve demand by atmosphere temperature Drought: Projec ons of forest stress given climate change in the Southwest precipita on Forest Drought Stress Index megadrought 29 Williams et al., Nature Climate Change, 2012 Drought: Tree dieoff in Southwest Tree die- off effects on ecosystem processes and services Breshears 30 et al.,

11 Benson Glacier (courtesy USDA) Eagle Cap, Wallowa Mountains, OR 1920 (H. Richardson) 1992 (D. Jensen) 31 Andrew G. Fountain Portland State University Tropical glacier melt Barnett et al., Nature, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:glacier_mass_balance_map.png 33 11

12 Glaciers in the American West 1 : 24, perennial snow and ice features km 2 (266 miles 2 ) Andrew G. Fountain Portland State University US Forest Service lands National Park Service lands 34 Glaciers Fraction of Glacier Area Lost since % 31% 46% 24% 66%?? 30% 40% 56% Andrew G. Fountain Portland State University US Forest Service lands National Park Service lands 35 Glaciers Slide courtesy Climate T. Link, Change UI Ecology 36 12

13 Lower Spring Snowpack Spring snowpack is projected to decline as more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, especially in warmer mid-elevation basins +4 F, +4.5% winter precip Snowpack will melt earlier with warmer spring temperatures Source: Climate Climate Change Impacts Ecology Group, University of Washington, 37 April 1 Snowpack Shifts in Streamflow More winter rain higher winter streamflows Warmer temperatures earlier snowmelt and a shift in the timing of peak runoff Lower winter snowpack lower spring and summer flows +3.6 (~2050s) to +5.4 F (~2080s) Sensitivity analysis for the Yakima River basin Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, gton.edu/cig 38 Increase in tree mortality rates in old-growth forests van Mantgem et al., Science,

14 Increase in tree mortality rates in old-growth forests due to warming (stress, biotic causes) observed mortality van Mantgem and Stephenson, Ecology Letters, 2007 likely cause unlikely cause 40 Warming leads to longer growing season but reduced plant growth Shallower snowpack => longer growing season length but less water availability => less plant growth (dependence on snow melt water) => less carbon storage (lower Net Ecosystem Productivity) Hu et al., Global Change Biology, Reliance of trees on snow melt water, not summer precip in this area from summer precip growth from melt water Hu et al., Global Change Biology,

15 Source: Climate Impacts Group, University 43 of Washington, Predicted response of bull trout to warming +0.6ºC +1.6ºC +5.0ºC Rieman et al Trout species respond differently to warming Brook Brown Rainbow Cutthroat fishandboat.com/trout.htm; fieldguide.mt.gov Wenger et al

16 Species responses to air temperature, streamflow Brook Brown Rainbow Cutthroat Wenger et al Predic ons using future climate projec ons Overall: 47% decrease by 2080 Wenger et al Rainbow: negative T offset by flow changes that are beneficial (spring, not winter, spawners) 47 Vulnerability to Climate Change Mobility Least Vulnerable Rainbow Trout Catostomids Cyprinids Brown Trout Redband Trout Spring Chinook Cutthroat Trout Brook Trout Summer Chinook Steelhead Fall Chinook Bull Trout Most Vulnerable Thermal Sensitivity Black = fall spawner 48 Slide courtesy D. Isaak, Prof. USDA J. Hicke FS 16

17 Cutthroat trout risk analysis that includes climate change Factors influencing risk of losing cutthroat trout populations: Adding climate change climate Williams et al., NAJ Fish. Manag., Cutthroat trout risk analysis that includes climate change Factor 1: Summer temperature Risk of higher summer T: above 22º or 24ºC (depending on population) after 3ºC warming Williams et al., NAJ Fish. Manag., Cutthroat trout risk analysis that includes climate change Factor 2: Winter flooding Winter precipdominated watersheds Change from snow- to rain-dominated with 3ºC winter warming Williams et al., NAJ Fish. Manag.,

18 Cutthroat trout risk analysis that includes climate change Factor 3: Wildfire impacts Intermediate elevations may be more susceptible to changes in fire regime (Westerling et al., 2006) Williams et al., NAJ Fish. Manag., Cutthroat trout risk analysis that includes climate change Composite risk = max of three climate risks Bonneville subspecies: 73% in high risk Colorado subspecies: 29% in high risk More change from flooding, fire than from summer warming summer T winter flooding wildfire + + Williams et al., NAJ Fish. Manag., Cutthroat trout risk analysis that includes climate change Westslope subspecies: 65% in high risk More change from flooding, fire than from summer warming Williams et al., NAJ Fish. Manag.,

19 Wildfire effects on stream temperature Burned : loss of shading from streamside vegetation Reorganized : flooding, debris flows following fires that redistribute sediment and wood (and remove live vegetation) Changes in T lasted for decades Dunham et al., Ecosystems, Cascading effects of changes in climate through physical and biological systems Warm water entering into Arctic -> changes in circulation -> deflection of low-salinity water to west of Greenland with resulting impacts to marine ecosystems Greene and Pershing, Science, Coral bleaching Hannah,

20 Coral bleaching FIGURE : A Deadly Year for Corals. The right panel shows corals bleached in the El Ni ñ o event of The left panels show a single coral head pre- and postbleaching: (a) prebleaching, (b) bleached coral head, (c) partially recovered coral head, and (d) fully recovered postbleaching. Left Source: Manzello et al., 2007; Right Source: Courtesy U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Hannah, Coral bleaching Marshall, Schuttenberg, Ocean acidification NOAA, State of Washington Report on Ocean Acidification,

21 Ocean acidification 61 Ocean acidification Recent changes in atmospheric CO2, CO2 in seawater, and ph NOAA, State of Washington Report on Ocean Acidification, Ocean acidification NOAA, State of Washington Report on Ocean Acidification,

22 Arctic sea ice retreat mean, 2 SD Change in extent during winter 2012 Extent during each year nsidc.org 64 Arctic sea ice retreat Extent in fall (minimum) oceantoday.noaa.gov/welcome.html 65 Arctic sea ice retreat 2007: bad year (2012 worse) globalwarmingart.com 66 22

23 Arctic sea ice retreat Models do not predict retreat as fast as observed (worrying) observations multi-model mean Stroeve et al., GRL, Climate change effects on Antarctic food webs climate change Hannah,