CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR ILLINOIS FOREST MANAGEMENT. September 29, 2017 Leslie Brandt Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science

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1 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR ILLINOIS FOREST MANAGEMENT September 29, 2017 Leslie Brandt Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science

2 Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science Climate Carbon Provides practical information, resources, and technical assistance related to forests and climate change Regional multi-institutional partnership among:

3 WHY SHOULD I CARE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE?

4 WHY SHOULD I CARE?

5 CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING

6 ILLINOIS WARMING AT 1 F PER CENTURY

7 RISING TEMPS IN THE US Tebaldi et al.

8 IT S GETTING WETTER

9 HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING 40% more extreme rain events in the United States. National Climate Assessment, 2014

10 MORE HEAVY RAIN IN ILLINOIS

11 FLOODING HAS INCREASED Percent change in floods/decade vs to 1958 Peterson et al. 2013

12 DECREASING DROUGHTS

13 LOOKING AHEAD: WHAT S IN STORE?

14 FUTURE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions High Greenhouse Gas Emissions imate-change/scenarios.htm

15 CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING Range of model projections

16 MORE HOT DAYS ARE COMING Up to 60 more days above 90 degrees by end of century in cities like Chicago. Hayhoe and Wuebbles 2007

17 WETTER SPRINGS

18 MORE DROUGHT? High Emissions Higher temperatures=more evaporation! Low Emissions Cumulative Drought Severity Index Iverson et al., In press End of 21 st century

19 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FORESTS IN IL?

20 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS High-quality information about future change in climate and the potential effects on forest ecosystems Help identify areas of greatest risk Brandt et al Brandt et al. 2017

21 ASSESSMENT AREAS Chicago Wilderness: Northeastern IL Central Hardwoods: Southern IL

22 FOREST IMPACTS

23 CHANGING HABITAT SUITABILITY: TREE ATLAS 134 Eastern Tree Species Based on statistical relationships between FIA data and climate, soils, topography 20 km resolution Developed by Dr. Louis Iverson and the Landscape Change Research Group fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas

24 BIGGEST LOSERS

25 BLACK CHERRY: HABITAT LOSS High Emissions Low Emissions Current Habitat End of century

26 WHITE OAK: HABITAT LOSS High Emissions Low Emissions Current Habitat End of century

27 HOLDING STRONG

28 PIN OAK: RETAINS HABITAT High Emissions Low Emissions Current Habitat End of century

29 RED MAPLE: RETAINS HABITAT High Emissions Low Emissions Current Habitat End of century

30 NEWLY SUITABLE HABITAT

31 SOUTHERN RED OAK: HABITAT GAIN High Emissions Low Emissions Current Habitat End of century

32 BLACKGUM: HABITAT GAIN High Emissions Low Emissions Current Habitat End of century

33 NON-NATIVES, INVASIVES, OTHER PLANTS, CULTIVARS?

34 CHANGES IN HARDINESS ZONES Iverson et al., in press

35 OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

36 LONGER GROWING SEASON Benefits: - More time for growth! Limits: - Early bud break/loss of cold hardening - Frost damage with spring frosts Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

37 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS Extreme events are rare and hard to model.

38 WILDFIRE RISK Fire may increase, because: Warmer/drier summers Increased mortality from stress, pests, events More frequent weather conditions that promote large fires or maybe not, because: Fire suppression will continue Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more mesic species Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation Source: Guyette et al. 2014, Tang et al. 2014, Miranda et al. 2012, Moritz et al. 2012, Nowacki et al. 2014

39 INCREASED BIOLOGICAL STRESSORS Many forests are already under stress from other causes. Climate change could make forests more susceptible to existing or new stressors. But Oak Blight: Favored by wet spring conditions Exotic Earthworms: Increase drought susceptibility Invasive Plants: Outcompete stressed trees

40 ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITY

41 HIGH VULNERABILITY: MESIC UPLAND FORESTS Reduced habitat suitability for dominant species Less soil moisture in summer/fall

42 MODERATE-HIGH VULNERABILITY: BOTTOMLAND FORESTS Model projections for dominant species mixed Changes in flood regime could add stress

43 LOW-MODERATE VULNERABILITY: DRY-MESIC FOREST Suitability may decline for some species and increase for others Lots of biodiversity Widespread

44 LOW-MODERATE VULNERABILITY: FLATWOODS Species are adapted to a range of stressors that could be intensified Geologically-constrained community type

45 LOW VULNERABILITY: WOODLANDS, BARRENS, AND SAVANNAS Conditions should generally be favorable dominant species Generally adapted to fire and drought.

46 MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES Fire season shifts Spring too wet for burning Late summer/fall at risk for wildfire Conditions ideal for harvesting may change Less frozen soil (particularly in the south) Dry soil conditions may be periodic Altered recreation seasons Less snow and ice-based recreation Longer shoulder seasons Changing in phenology of invasive species Leaf out earlier? Set seed earlier?

47 WHAT DO I DO ABOUT IT?

48 Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al ADAPT! Adaptation is the adjustment of human or natural systems in response to climate change.

49 Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al ADAPTATION Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in response to climate change. Adaptation activities can build on sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of forests

50 ADAPTATION OPTIONS Resistance Resilience Transition Manage for persistence Manage for change

51 ADAPTATION OPTION #1: RESISTANCE Improve the defenses of the forest against effects of change. Short-term High-value Photo: USFS Millar et al. 2007

52 ADAPTATION OPTION #1: RESISTANCE Desired Future Condition Climate Change Trajectory TIME?

53 RESISTANCE EXAMPLES Use structures to control flooding Protect at-risk species and sites Remove or prevent the spread of invasive species Controlling erosion Reducing runoff

54 ADAPTATION OPTION #2: RESILIENCE Accommodate gradual change, usually returning to a prior condition after disturbance Photo: USFS Millar et al. 2007

55 ADAPTATION OPTION #2: RESILIENCE Desired Future Condition Climate Change Trajectory TIME?

56 RESILIENCE EXAMPLES Restoring soil structure Increasing species and genetic diversity Restoring natural hydrologic processes Conducting prescribed burns and thinning Removing dead/dying trees following disturbances (large-scale flooding, fires, pest outbreaks) Revegetating areas after disturbance

57 Millar et al ADAPTATION OPTION #3: TRANSITION Intentionally encourage change, help ecosystems respond in a targeted fashion

58 ADAPTATION OPTION #3: TRANSITION Climate Change Trajectory TIME?

59 TRANSITION EXAMPLES Moving plant/tree species up/down slope or across latitudes to more suitable conditions Incorporating seeds from outside current seed zones to enhance genetic diversity Re-locating at-risk species Expanding the range of future-adapted trees Creating habitat for new wildlife migrants Ceasing to manage for migratory wildlife that no longer use the area

60 ADAPTATION OPTIONS Resistance Resilience Transition Manage for persistence Manage for change

61 FOREST ADAPTATION RESOURCES FOREST ADAPTATION RESOURCES Designed for a variety of land managers with various goals and objectives Tailored to eastern forests in rural and urban areas Does not make recommendations Two menus of adaptation strategies & approaches, including one for urban forest ecosystems

62 ADAPTATION WORKBOOK Define goal Vulnerability Assessment Monitor effectiveness Assess vulnerabilities Identify adaptation strategies Evaluate objectives

63 ONLINE WORKBOOK Adaptationworkbook.org

64 WHAT DOES ADAPTATION LOOK LIKE?

65 REAL-WORLD Adaptation EXAMPLES Demonstrations 200+ Projects underway Click Demonstration Projects

66 REAL-WORLD Adaptation EXAMPLES Demonstrations

67 DUCKS UNLIMITED: BOTTOMLAND HARDWOOD FOREST AND WETLAND RESILIENCE Resilience: Diversifying the species composition and genetic stock of hardwood trees used for reforestation efforts. Transition: Providing more productive wintering habitat for waterfowl species which are not expected to migrate as far south. Resistance/Resilience: Constructing box culverts to handle larger rain events.

68 REAL-WORLD Adaptation EXAMPLES Demonstrations

69 RIVERSIDE, IL: REFORESTATION PROJECT Transition: Planting future-adapted trees, such as baldcypress, pecan, and Ohio buckeye. Resistance/Resilience: Watering and mulching to reduce stress. Resistance: Removing invasive buckthorn.

70 WHAT CAN I RIGHT NOW?

71 WHAT CAN YOU DO? Pick up a copy or download a vulnerability assessment Chicago: Central Hardwoods: Pick up a copy or download a copy of Forest Adaptation Resources: 760

72 WHAT CAN YOU DO? Use the online adaptation workbook! Contact Leslie for individual assistance with an adaptation project: Thank you!