Forests and climate change mitigation - energy system transformation and the 2-degree target

Transcription

1 Forests and climate change mitigation - energy system transformation and the -degree target Stop the iwuc!!! Forest carbon time bomb???? C payback time? Fight C debt!!!! KSLA seminar June 6. Göran Berndes, Chalmers

2 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL, Next year, in December, delegates from more than 9 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 99. For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than degrees Celsius (.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the The world has only about 5 years left in which to begin to bend the emissions curve downward. Otherwise NYT editorial, April,

3 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL, Next year, in December, delegates from more than 9 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 99. For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The world has only Since it is urgent to reduce GHG emissions we about 5 years left in should only invest in options that deliver which to begin to bend almost immediate net GHG savings and help the emissions curve reaching near term GHG reduction targets downward. Otherwise The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than degrees Celsius (.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the NYT editorial, April,

4 How much do individual forest bioenergy projects reduce GHG emissions? Mg Carbon ha Old Soil Trees Litter & Residuals Residuals Trees Litter & Residuals Simulation Years Residuals Litter & Residuals Stem Volume, Million m sk Annual Increment Gross felling Year

5 Mg Carbon ha Old Soil Trees Litter & Residuals Residuals Trees Litter & Residuals Simulation Years Residuals Litter & Residuals

6 If you extract biomass from a forest stand and use it for energy, then the carbon in the biomass is immediately lost to the atmosphere. Mg Carbon ha Old Soil Trees Litter & Residuals Residuals Trees Litter & Residuals Simulation Years Residuals Litter & Residuals

7 You will therefore create a carbon debt that needs to be re-paid before the bioenergy systems reduces net GHG emissions... Mg Carbon ha Old Soil Trees Litter & Residuals Residuals Trees Litter & Residuals Simulation Years Residuals Litter & Residuals

8 Better to leave the biomass in the forest.since using it will not help us meet our near term GHG target Mg Carbon ha Old Soil Trees Litter & Residuals Residuals Trees Litter & Residuals Simulation Years Residuals Litter & Residuals

9 Before a tree can be burned it has to grow by absorbing carbon from the atmosphere... Mg Carbon ha Old Soil Trees Litter & Residuals Residuals Trees Litter & Residuals Simulation Years Residuals Litter & Residuals

10 Theories on carbon debt are not credible, because they are based on the unrealistic assumption that trees are first burned and then grown! Mg Carbon ha Old Soil Trees Litter & Residuals Residuals Trees Litter & Residuals Simulation Years Residuals Litter & Residuals

11 Burn baby burn? Trees killed by spruce budworm, Quebec (E. Thiffault)

12 Atmospheric CO concentration (parts per million, ppm) Roughly 9 percent of total global CO emissions is currently associated with fossil fuel use 9 Business As Usual for energy, but deforestation rate is reduced linearly to reach % of the level by Chalmers Climate Calculator Scenarios where the atmospheric CO concentrations stabilize somewhat above 5 ppm. Even lower levels needed for high likelihood of staying below degree warming Berndes et al. (IEA Bioenergy:ExCo::)

13 Atmospheric CO concentration (parts per million, ppm) Reaching the -degree target requires drastic changes in the way the global energy system functions. 9 Business As Usual for energy, but deforestation rate is reduced linearly to reach % of the level by Chalmers Climate Calculator The difference between the two lower graphs is due to different emissions associated with deforestation. The upmost graph corresponds to a scenario that has constant deforestation rate equal to the level up to. The lowest graph corresponds to a scenario where the deforestation rate is reduced as in the BAU case. Berndes et al. (IEA Bioenergy:ExCo::)

14 Atmospheric CO concentration (parts per million, ppm) The effect of strongly reduced LUC emissions is relatively small compared to what is required for reaching such stabilization targets. 9 Business As Usual for energy, but deforestation rate is reduced linearly to reach % of the level by Chalmers Climate Calculator Bending the BAU curve to stay below 5 ppm requires drastic energy system transformation Berndes et al. (IEA Bioenergy:ExCo::)

15 Starting point: we need to stop injecting fossil carbon into the atmosphere-biosphere system Atmosphere-Biosphere System Large & variable Biosphere Atmosphere Fossil fuels Difficult to monitor & control Pedosphere Ocean

16

17 Will we reach our near term GHG target if forest residues are used for energy instead of being left to decay?

18 Will we reach our near How about this as the term GHG target if key challenge to forest residues are used consider? for energy instead of being left to decay?

19 How can bioelectricity and other balancing options facilitate growth in intermittent electricity generation?

20 How can biofuels facilitate electrification of road transport by providing renewable fuels for plug-in vehicles?

21 Will investments in bioenergy reduce investments in fossil energy capacity?

22 Will investments in bioenergy reduce investments in fossil energy capacity?

23 Policy and strategy development: Depends on objective Promote carbon sinks and use some biomass to displace some fossil fuels so that we can meet near-term GHG targets; minimize effects on food and biomaterials production Burn baby burn?

24 Policy and strategy development: Depends on objective Promote development in agriculture and forestry sectors towards a future where they can provide food, biomaterials and bioenergy that contributes substantially to the future energy supply Burn baby burn?

25 Policy and strategy development: Depends on objective Promote development in agriculture and forestry sectors towards a future where they can provide food, biomaterials and bioenergy that contributes substantially to the future energy supply Burn baby burn?

26 Cumulative CO emissions From the perspective of global temperature targets, scientists have estimated a concentration of atmospheric GHGs that should not be exceeded. 5 5 Remaining emission space up to 5 5% probability of staying below C 75% probability of staying below C 5 Fossil fuel use 75-6 Fossil fuel use since mid 97s 5 Land use change 85-5 Berndes et al. (IEA Bioenergy:ExCo::)

27 Cumulative CO emissions The difference between current concentrations and this threshold can be considered the atmospheric capacity for GHG emissions emissions space, carbon budget, etc 5 5 Remaining emission space up to 5 5% probability of staying below C 75% probability of staying below C 5 Fossil fuel use 75-6 Fossil fuel use since mid 97s 5 Land use change 85-5 Berndes et al. (IEA Bioenergy:ExCo::)

28 The difference between current concentrations and this threshold can be considered the atmospheric capacity for GHG emissions emissions space, carbon budget, etc Remaining emission space

29 Development of new energy and transport systems will take time and the development process will in itself be associated with GHG emissions Sorry, this railway bridge cannot be built: lots of emissions and too long carbon payback time...

30 Development of new energy and transport systems will take time and the development process will in itself be associated with GHG emissions Committed emissions in existing energy infrastructure represent about half the remaining emission space Remaining emission space Fill it up with fossil carbon? Non-fossil fuel related

31 Transitions to energy futures that include a significant contribution from bioenergy may enhance or reduce biospheric carbon stocks Atmosphere-Biosphere System Large & variable Biosphere Atmosphere Difficult to monitor & control

32 If carbon stock reductions occur, the drawback of such reductions needs to be weighted against benefits of developing a bioenergy industry to provide renewable energy supply Remaining emission space Fill it up with fossil carbon? Reversible (and can be negative from the start) Non-fossil fuel related...or use some space for developing alternatives to fossil fuels? LUC for bioenergy Non-fossil fuel related

33 Sweden: climate neutrality and fossil independent transport sector Absolute emissions in BAU Net emissions in BAU Fossil emissions Forest management and LUC Sweden s CO budget (66% chance of staying below degree warming) Cintas O, Berndes G, Hansson J, Poudel B, Bergh J, Bo rjesson P, Egnell G, Lundmark T, Nordin A. The potential role of forest management in Swedish scenarios towards climate neutrality by mid-century. Soon available in Forest Ecology and Management

34 Sweden: climate neutrality and fossil independent transport sector CO Budget CO CO Fossil Budget Budget emissions Fossil Fossil emissions Forest emissions management Forest Forest management and management LUC Displaced and and LUC LUC products-bio Displaced Displaced products-bio products-bio Displaced products- Displaced Displaced produc pr LESS EXPORT LESS LESS EXPORT EXPO Pg CO Fossil emissions CO Budget Pg CO Pg CO Absolute net - net Net Net net - - net Net emissions Net Budget increase-displaced Budget net products BIO products - net Net emissions More Net slash Budget & increase-displaced stumps products BIO BIO net net net net-bio net-bio net-bio cumulative C budget cumulative (5-) C budget (5-) fixing cumulative C budget (5-) C budget (5-) cumulative fixing C budget (5-) fixing fixing Net cumulative historical C budget debt (5-) cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget historical debt products cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT fixing Net historical Budget debt increase cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget fixingincrease-displaced historical debt products cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT fixing Net historical Budget debt increase cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget fixingincrease-displaced historical debt products (5- cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT (5- - (5- historical debt historical historical debt debt ) fixing historical ) debt ) fixing fixing historical historical debt debt fossil fuels fossil fossil fuels fuels fossil fuels fossil fossil fuels fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels forest and REF forest products and forest forest and forest products forest and forest forest and forest products - - Net LESS products EXPORT forest and forest forest products and forest BIO products BIO - Effect abroad forest forest and forest and forest products products fossil fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels Forest management and LUC Net Budget increase REF LESS EXPORT BIO BIO BIO BIO Effect Effect abroad abroa BAU Energy transition forest and forest forest products forest and forest and forest cumulative products products C budget cumulative (5-) cumulative C budget C budget (5- fixing historical debt fixing historical fixing historical debt debt Displaced products-bio Displaced Displaced products-bio products-bio - Energy transition More slash & stumps Enhanced forest growth Roundwood for energy- - -

35 Sweden: climate neutrality and fossil independent transport sector Lots of bioenergy projects here CO Budget CO CO Fossil Budget Budget emissions Fossil Fossil emissions Forest emissions management Forest Forest management and management LUC Displaced and and LUC LUC products-bio Displaced Displaced products-bio products-bio Displaced products- Displaced produc and some folks might conclude Displaced pr LESS EXPORT Absolute LESS LESS EXPORT EXPO that certain projects do not deliver near term GHG savings: depends on type of feedstock as well as evaluation approach Fossil emissions Pg CO CO Budget Pg CO Pg CO net - net Net Net net - - net Net emissions Net Budget increase-displaced Budget net products BIO products - net Net emissions More Net slash Budget & increase-displaced stumps products BIO BIO net net net net-bio net-bio net-bio cumulative C budget cumulative (5-) C budget (5-) fixing cumulative C budget (5-) C budget (5-) cumulative fixing C budget (5-) fixing fixing Net cumulative historical C budget debt (5-) cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget historical debt products cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT fixing Net historical Budget debt increase cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget fixingincrease-displaced historical debt products cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT fixing Net historical Budget debt increase cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget fixingincrease-displaced historical debt products (5- cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT (5- - (5- historical debt historical historical debt debt ) fixing historical ) debt ) fixing fixing historical historical debt debt fossil fuels fossil fossil fuels fuels fossil fuels fossil fossil fuels fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels forest and REF forest products and forest forest and forest products forest and forest forest and forest products - - Net LESS products EXPORT forest and forest forest products and forest BIO products BIO - Effect abroad forest forest and forest and forest products products fossil fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels Forest management and LUC Net Budget increase REF LESS EXPORT BIO BIO BIO BIO Effect Effect abroad abroa BAU Energy transition forest and forest forest products forest and forest and forest cumulative products products C budget cumulative (5-) cumulative C budget C budget (5- fixing historical debt fixing historical fixing historical debt debt Displaced products-bio Displaced Displaced products-bio products-bio - Energy transition More slash & stumps Enhanced forest growth Roundwood for energy- - -

36 Sweden: climate neutrality and fossil independent transport sector CO Budget CO CO Fossil Budget Budget emissions Fossil Fossil emissions Forest emissions management Forest Forest management and management LUC But Displaced and and on LUC LUC a national products-bio Displaced Displaced level, products-bio the products-bio Displaced products- Displaced Displaced produc pr bioenergy implementation LESS EXPORT Absolute LESS LESS EXPORT EXPO supports the energy transition and investments in forestry leads to increasing forest carbon stocks Fossil emissions Pg CO CO Budget Pg CO Pg CO net - net Net Net net - - net Net emissions Net Budget increase-displaced Budget net products BIO products - net Net emissions More Net slash Budget & increase-displaced stumps products BIO BIO net net net net-bio net-bio net-bio cumulative C budget cumulative (5-) C budget (5-) fixing cumulative C budget (5-) C budget (5-) cumulative fixing C budget (5-) fixing fixing Net cumulative historical C budget debt (5-) cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget historical debt products cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT fixing Net historical Budget debt increase cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget fixingincrease-displaced historical debt products cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT fixing Net historical Budget debt increase cumulative C budget Net (5-) Budget fixingincrease-displaced historical debt products (5- cumulative LESS C budget EXPORT (5- - (5- historical debt historical historical debt debt ) fixing historical ) debt ) fixing fixing historical historical debt debt fossil fuels fossil fossil fuels fuels fossil fuels fossil fossil fuels fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels forest and REF forest products and forest forest and forest products forest and forest forest and forest products - - Net LESS products EXPORT forest and forest forest products and forest BIO products BIO - Effect abroad forest forest and forest and forest products products fossil fuels fossil fuels fossil fuels Forest management and LUC Net Budget increase REF LESS EXPORT BIO BIO BIO BIO Effect Effect abroad abroa BAU Energy transition forest and forest forest products forest and forest and forest cumulative products products C budget cumulative (5-) cumulative C budget C budget (5- fixing historical debt fixing historical fixing historical debt debt Displaced products-bio Displaced Displaced products-bio products-bio - Energy transition More slash & stumps Enhanced forest growth Roundwood for energy- - -

37 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL, Next year, in December, delegates from more than 9 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 99. For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The world has only Since it is urgent to reduce GHG emissions we about 5 years left in should only invest in options that deliver which to begin to bend almost immediate net GHG savings and help the emissions curve reaching near term GHG reduction targets downward. Otherwise The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than degrees Celsius (.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the NYT editorial, April,

38 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL, Next year, in December, delegates from more than 9 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 99. For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The world has only Since it is urgent to reduce GHG emissions we about 5 years left in should only invest in options that deliver which to begin to bend almost immediate net GHG savings and help the emissions curve reaching near term GHG reduction targets downward. Otherwise The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than degrees Celsius (.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the NYT editorial, April,

39 hmm...i guess it is better we just store this pile here, need to keep the biospheric carbon out of the atmosphere as long as possible Byholma airport: storage of about.% of trees felled by storm Gudrun (photo source:

40 hmm...i guess it is better we just store this pile here, need to keep the biospheric carbon out of the atmosphere as long as possible Byholma airport: storage of about.% of trees felled by storm Gudrun (photo source:

41 Sweden: climate neutrality and fossil independent transport sector Stem Volume, Million m sk Annual Increment Gross felling Year Sweden, late 9 th century: forest planting in response to a reforestation policy to secure raw material supply for the forest industry. Forest owners were also required to reforest after felling a law that has been effective up to present time, combined with an ambition to not harvest above the level of annual increment over time Increment and fellings: how are these affected when the forest sector adapts to anticipated increases in bioenergy demand?

42 Remaining emission space () for 66% chance of keeping global average temperature below C warming Allocated Swedish quota.5 Total remaining CO quota 9

43 Swedish level: GHG emissions in BAU Forest supply vs. demand Years

44 Swedish level: the GHG neutrality goal by 5/5 Forest supply vs. demand BIO: Increase growth + increase harvest intensity BIO: Increase harvest intensity BAU: Current forest management Bioenergy demand Years