Avoided Deforestation

Transcription

1 Avoided Deforestation Sten Nilsson Acting Director, IIASA Megaflorestais 2008, Brasília Manaus, Brazil, October 2008

2 Average Carbon Per Hectare and Number of Hectares for Tropical Forests in Three Models t C/ha (million ha) Model Central and South America Africa Southeast Asia GTM 106 (913) 100 (352) 132 (202) DIMA 86.4 (842) 87.7 (684) 74.7 (181) GCOMAP 97.2 (965) 54.6 (650) 48 (286) Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)

3 Average Annual Hectare Deforested and Carbon Emitted as a Result Between 2005 and 2030 Million ha yr -1 (Gt CO 2 yr -1 ) Model Central and South America Africa Southeast Asia Global GTM 4.84 (1.86) 4.58 (1.72) 2.23 (1.07) (4.69) DIMA 3.62 (1.15) 4.98 (1.61) 1.14 (0.31) (3.22) GCOMAP 4.31 (1.57) 5.99 (1.37) 1.90 (0.38) (3.31) Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)

4 Marginal Costs in 2010 of Emissions Reductions with AD Activities in 3 Regions with Predictions of the 3 Models Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)

5 Marginal Costs in 2020 of Emissions Reductions with AD Activities in 3 Regions with Predictions of the 3 Models Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)

6 Emission Reduction: $20 ton CO 2 : Global emission reduction of 1.6 to 4.3 Gt CO 2 /year $100 ton CO 2 : Global emission reduction of 3.1 to 4.7 Gt CO 2 /year

7 Costs to Reduce Deforestation by 10% and 50% Estimation of a projected base line deforestation rate for a given period Agreement to reduce this deforestation rate Paid export for reductions achieved 10% global reduction $2 5 per ton CO 2 50% global reduction $10 20 per ton CO 2

8 Costs to Reduce Deforestation by 10% and 50% continued Carbon prices of $2 per ton CO 2 carbon rental values of $20 35 per ha and year Carbon prices of $10 per ton CO 2 carbon rental values of $ per ha and year 50% reduction would reduce emissions by Gt CO 2 per year and would cost $17 to 28 billion per year Additional costs for transactions and leakage $33 billion/year

9 The Carbon Balance Source: UNESCO SCOPE (2006)

10 Current Global Investments ~$18 billion/year

11 Provisioning Services Products obtained from ecosystems Food Fresh water Fuelwood Fiber Biochemicals Genetic resources Regulating Services Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes Climate regulation Disease regulation Water regulation Water purification Pollination Cultural Services Nonmaterial benefits obtained from ecosystems Spiritual and religious Recreation and ecotourism Aesthetic Inspirational Educational Sense of place Cultural heritage Supporting Services Services necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services Soil formation Nutrient cycling Primary production Source: Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (2005)

12 Costanza (1997) estimated that globally ecosystems are worth 33 trillion dollars, however critics say: Not possible to put value on ES Not possible to extrapolate Big gaps in ecosystem valuation Millennium ecosystems assessment Better valuation techniques since then Taking increasingly people and livelihoods into account

13 Costanza (1997) Recent activities to improve map of Costanza (1997)

14 Wikipedia

15 Reverse deforestation Support vulnerable populations STOP illegal deforestation Value connections & collaboration Promote biodiversity & sustainable forest products

16 Transparent Internet-based Forum R S V P You, Me and Our Organizations

17 Illegal Deforestation: Ombudsman contacted Licensed Deforestation by Soybaron DeCasta

18 StoraEnso Integrated Project

19 Rural Development Project Civil Society Groups Space Monitor Reforestation for Timber Reforestation for Carbon Value ENGO Partner Space Verify Avoided Deforestation for Carbon Value Courtesy: StoraEnso

20 R S V P Respond!!!

21 What It Will Achieve Increase public and political awareness Reveal and monitor land use in critical forests Verify carbon sink agreements Reduce CO 2 impact by acknowledging forests and forest products as carbon sinks Employ transparency to promote accountability and expose illegal logging and corruption Promote effective models of reforestation and examples of good governance and leadership Connect governments, NGOs scientists, industry, unions, local communities and individuals to find effective local solutions

22 Thank you