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1 Resilient Agro-landscapes to Climate Change in Tanzania Hydrological Sub-Project O. Dietrich, M. Schäfer, M. Nathkin Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.v. World Agroforestry Centre Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) Müncheberg, 20. August 2010

2 Background Output Identifying of important indicators for ecological impact of climate change and agricultural adoptation options water balance in Ngerengere River Hydrological monitoring system including meteorological station, gauging stations and groundwater wells Adapted hydrological model including model parameter sets for Ngerengere River basin Scenarios analyses assessment of the impact of climate and land use change on hydrological cycle in Ngerengere River basin.

3 Ngerengere River basin Ngerengere catchment Source: Main river basins in Tanzania Source: Kalugendo 2008 Ruvu Basin Catchment area: : ~ km 2 Ngerengere: ~2.780 km 2 Source: Ruvu Basin ALCOM-WWF Watershed Model

4 Material & Methods Hydrological Monitoring Selection of a suitable catchment Indicators Water levels and discharge in rivers Groundwater levels Establishment of a hydrological monitoring system Monitoring and analysing Hydrological Modelling Precipitation/runoff models Experiences with SWAT and WASIM-ETH in Germany Check-up of practicability for agro-landscapes in Tanzania Research for other suitable models Selection of a suitable model Assembling, calibration and validation of a model in study region Application for scenario analyses

5 Hydrological Monitoring Presented at 11th WaterNet/WARFSA/GWP-SA Symposium in Entebbe/Uganda in October 2009 Paper in Physics and Chemistry of the Earth M.C. Gomani, O. Dietrich, G. Lischeid, H. Mahoo, F. Mahay, B. Mbilinyi and J. Sarmett: Establishment of a hydrological monitoring network in a tropical African catchment: An integrated participatory approach (accepted) Soil map and hydro-meteorological monitoring network in the Ngerengere catchment

6 Historical time series, GIS data, soil & plant parameter Time series Meteorological data for Morogoro ( ) Rainfall data for 7 stations since 1960er years up to 2009 Historical discharge for 4 stations ( ) GIS data DEM, Soil, geology, stream network, land use (Problem: land use change in last decades) Soil & plant parameter Not complete soil analyses are on the way, plant parameter from literature

7 Hydrological Modelling Area of watershed: 2732 km² Number of Sub-catchments: 300 Number of Land uses: 10 Number of soils: 6 Number of HRUs: 606 Utari

8 Links to other sub-projects Regional climate scenarios Regionalised climate scenarios input for hydrological modelling SVAT-Modelling (agro-ecosystem models) Same time series as model input Common GIS data base for models Need same specific model input parameter Results from one model are boundary conditions or calibration/validation parameters of the other model Common monitoring system Participative Scenario Development Agricultural adaptation options Land use scenarios (input for hydrological scenario analyses) Detailed modelling for sub-catchments of socio-economic sample villages

9 Next steps Completion of monitoring (12/2010) Identifying and removal of gaps and problems Completion of soil analyses Preparation of handover of the systems Completion of model assembling, including calibration and validation (12/2010) Handover of monitoring systems (03/2011) Scenario analyses (03/2011)

10 Thank for your attention! Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.v. World Agroforestry Centre Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) Müncheberg, 20. August 2010