Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD): Will Trees Grow on Money?

Transcription

1 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD): Will Trees Grow on Money? Frances Seymour Director General Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) Bogor, May 12, 2008

2 Presentation outline: What is CIFOR? Why do forests matter? REDD What s the big idea? REDD challenges ahead

3 A quick introduction to CIFOR: One of 15 centers in the CGIAR Headquarters in Indonesia and staff based in Brazil, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Zambia Research activities in more than 40 countries throughout the tropics

4 CIFOR s global research agenda: Forests and climate change mitigation (REDD) Forests and adaptation to climate change Small-scale and community forestry Conservation and development at landscape scale Impacts of trade and investment on forests Sustainable management of production forests

5 Why do forests matter?

6 Forests are significant for national economies Example of Indonesia: 3-4% of gross domestic product (forestry, wood products, paper) One-fifth of the industrial sector 9% of total export value > $50 million/year NTFPs exports (rattan, resins) 600,000 formal sector jobs (of which one-third furniture)

7 Forests matter for biodiversity Borneo < 1% of the earth s land area 6% of the world s Flowering plant species Bird species Mammal species

8 Forest biodiversity is important to local people Field survey results (200 plots in East Kalimantan): 15,430 plant records > 2,100 species 3,642 specific uses 1,449 species 119 non-substitutable

9 Forests are important for ecosystem services

10 Forests are important for energy Up to 80 % of primary energy needs met from wood fuels

11 Forests provide safety nets for vulnerable individuals and communities Forests provided an important source of income during the financial crisis in Indonesia Bushmeat provides an important source of protein for AIDS orphans in sub-saharan Africa

12 Forests are important to human health clean water nutritious food traditional medicine disease control

13 Forests are important for climate adaptation Climate change is likely to bring a higher probability of high intensity rainfall events, which in turn increase the risk of landslides Maintenance of forest vegetation can help stabilize the slope for some types of land movement

14 Forests are important for climate mitigation Some 20% of global emissions are from forest and landuse change Indonesia and Brazil now globally-significant sources of emissions due to deforestation and forest fires

15 Significance of forest-based emissions (Among top five emitters) 7,000 MtCO2e 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 (1,000) United States China Indonesia Brazil Russia Energy Agriculture Forestry Waste Source: Adopted from PEACE (Pelangi Energi Abadi Citra Enviro) report, 2007.

16 REDD: What s the big idea?

17 Avoided deforestation among the cheapest options for emissions mitigation

18 Outcomes of UNFCCC COP13 Bali Action Plan includes Road map to incorporating REDD in the global climate protection regime

19 Compensated reductions below an agreed baseline C-removals (Mton) Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) National Reference rate Actual Nat. emissions Compensated reduction

20 Money may finally grow on trees left standing

21 How much money are we talking about for Indonesia? Assume a baseline of 3 billion tons of carbon emissions per year Assume a reduction of 20% below the baseline Assume a price of $5/ton of avoided carbon emissions = $3 billion per year By comparison: Development aid to the forestry sector in Indonesia over the last two decades = $1 billion cumulative Loss to the Indonesian economy from undocumented timber extraction = $3 billion per year

22 Good investments are available Research shows much forest conversion provides limited economic return In some cases, <$1 per ton of carbon emitted

23 Why might REDD succeed? Volume of finance sufficient to shift the political economy of drivers of deforestation and degradation Political attention and engagement at the national level Alignment of the interests of multiple constituencies Performance-based finance

24 Potential for REDD win-wins Emissions reductions and improved local livelihoods improved biodiversity conservation improved forest governance

25 REDD challenges ahead

26 REDD will require a new level of forest governance Need for REDD readiness : governance mechanisms and institutional capacity To decide on strategy To measure and monitor change To transfer payments Need to manage risks and trade-offs Need to establish legitimacy Inclusive process Equitable outcomes

27 Lessons from early Payments for Ecosystems Services (PES) experience: Likely tradeoffs between efficiency and equity

28 Need to manage REDD risks of leading to human rights violations of making poor people worse off of corruption of ineffectiveness

29 REDD is still controversial Concern about market mechanisms Concern about risks, especially to indigenous peoples

30 Discussions at Forest Day illuminated areas for consensus-building and research: Better data and methods Role of markets Managing trade-offs

31 National REDD processes underway Indonesia: Led by the Ministry of Forestry in preparation for the Bali COP 14 countries have submitted plans to World Bank s forest carbon facility

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