Japan Wood Market Summary

Transcription

1 JAWIC Japan Wood Market Summary July Domestic wood (Northern Kanto) Tochigi prefecture Forest owners reluctance for harvesting persists. Arrivals at log auction markets are on the decline. Sugi and hinoki logs for posts are selling well and even demand for medium-sized logs are recovering due to the reduced volume of arrivals and the low level of sawmills inventory. Prices of logs for posts are going up auction after auction and those for medium-sized logs have hit the bottom and moving upward. Gunma prefecture Arrivals and shipments of logs are at normal levels. Sawmills are increasing their operating rates and lumber shipments are larger than some months ago. It remains to be seen, however, how long this recovery mood continues. Home builders are demanding lower lumber prices and sawmills are still having tough time making good profits. The prefecture put forward an economic stimulus measures which includes subsidies to home building using prefectural wood but housing starts are still at a low level. 2. North American wood The US housing starts in May were 17.2% higher than in April but still at a very level (45.2% compared to the same month last year). Log production in the US and Canada continues to be at a low level due to the diminishing demand and prices remain flat for

2 both second growth and old growth. The US export log inventory increased by 20.7 % from the previous month to 47.2 million scribner (roughly 212,000 m 3 ) but it was because the previous month inventory was extremely low. Weyerhaeuser s July shipments of Douglas fir IS sort seem to be for the same price as in June. On the Japan side, arrivals, shipments and inventory remained unchanged. Shipments from large sawmills in port areas in June were about the same level as in May. Inland sawmills continue to struggle and they buy logs at a minimum necessity level. As a result of stringent production curtailment, SPF lumber prices shot up in June. Export prices of J-grade lumber did not rise but if SPF prices continue to rise in the US market, it will be reflected in the export price as well. Arrivals of lumber decreased while shipments remain flat and inventory shrunk a little. The Japanese domestic demand is still weak and lumber imports from North America will not increase in the short term. 3. Tropical wood In Sabah the weather has been fair and log production is proceeding well in anticipation of the expiry of logging license at the end of the year. Log prices are softening both for sawlogs and peelers due to weak demand from consuming countries except for some hardwoods such as Kapor and Apiton. In Sarawak the continued dry weather is causing difficulties for river transport. Demand for logs from local plywood manufactures is weak reflecting the depressed international plywood market. Since log export control is not strictly enforced until the end of June, log producers are trying to sell to overseas market rather than to domestic buyers. Log prices remain at low levels. In PNG and Solomon, demand from consuming countries is weak and so are log prices. Arrival of logs at Japanese ports are decreasing, shipments flat, and inventory is decreasing. Arrivals of lumber remain unchanged from the previous month. Sales of logs and lumber are stagnant. 4. Russian wood

3 Log export volume from Russia via Suifenhe for January through June increased recently but was roughly 60% of a year ago level. Exports from Vanino to Japan for January through May were less than 50% compared to the same period in the previous year, whereas those for China and Korea maintained about 70%. Export log inventory at Vanino at the end of June was approximately 46,000 m 3, which was nearly double the volume of May but the increase was targeted for China. Japan bound logs are very few and sporadic. Arrivals of logs in June at Toyama and Toyama Shinko combined sharply increased by 128.7% from May to 31,026 m 3 (red pine 10,069 m 3, spruce 18,845 m 3, larch 2,112 m 3, Korean pine 0 m 3 ). On the other hand, arrivals of lumber including red pine genban decreased by 40% to 11,912 m 3. Prices of both spruce and larch logs remain unchanged but red pine weakening. Sawmills have 3 months supply of logs. Lumber domestically produced from Russian logs are competing hard against imported lumber in Tokyo and Kawasaki. 5. Plywood Manufactures of both tropical and softwood plywood are continuing with production curtailment. Due to the stagnant plywood prices, log purchases are sluggish and manufactures have enough log supplies. Log prices remained unchanged for tropical, Russian and domestic species. Plywood production in May was 166,000 m 3, which was 78.1% compared to May 2008 and 91.9% compared to the previous month. Softwood plywood production volume was 141,000 m 3 (85.6% and 92.8% respectively). Shipment volume of softwood plywood was about the same level as the production, i.e. 143,000m 3 (81.3%, 81.1%), and inventory level remain unchanged around 222,000 m 3. Sales of domestically produced tropical plywood are lackluster and manufactures are sustaining 20-30% production cut, waiting for the market to rebound. Prices of softwood plywood seemed to have stopped falling due to major manufactures resistance. Arrivals of imported plywood continue to be small in quantity and some items are starting to be in tight supply but due to the overall weak demand prices remain unchanged.

4 6. Glulam Arrivals of European redwood lamina under the second quarter contracts have been smooth. In Scandinavia, manufactures are implementing significant production curtailment including temporary shutdowns. When the European market entered the construction season and demand for wood products picked up, the supply and demand balance braced up. Under the circumstances, European suppliers of lamina are demanding 10% increase for the third quarter contract negotiation. For the Japanese glulam manufactures they are for production in October through December. At the current exchange rate of yen/euro, profitability of Japanese manufactures will be seriously affected. Orders received from pre-cut mills by domestic glulam manufactures increased as the former anticipated rising prices of kudabashira. Kudabashira manufactures wanted a 50-yen up or 1500 yen/piece for June delivery but, due to increased production by major manufactures, it did not materialize. Price of imported kudabashira for July through September has been settled for 1450 yen. The domestic price will be affected by this price and will stay yen until the end of September. The new entrant Schweighofer of Romania has been expanding exports to the Japanese market since May with relatively inexpensive kudabashira. 7. Wholesale Sales of structural lumber both domestic as well as imported species are dull due to the low number of wooden housing construction. Sales of non-structural sugi and hinoki lumber for remodeling and those of spruce hirawari are a few of the bright spots. Lumber auction markets, even those of once-a month commemorative ones, are having a hard time attracting buyers. 8. Retail No significant changes have been seen in sales of sugi KD posts and hinoki square for dodai. Prices of red pine taruki (rafter) are strengthening because of small volume of arrivals. Some items of hemlock such as 45x90mm are in short supply and price

5 remains rather high but most other items including square and hirawari remain flat. European mabashira remains firm. With regard to glulams, prices remain at same levels for whitewood posts, redwood posts and beams. Prices of plywood both tropical and softwood are flat in general but softwood plywood 3x6x12 is weakening.