Forests in a changing world challenges and opportunities. Prof. Markku Kanninen University of Helsinki

Transcription

1 Forests in a changing world challenges and opportunities Prof. Markku Kanninen University of Helsinki 1

2 Trends in forests During the last 40 years Deforestation: 500 M Ha Consumption of forest products: 50 % increase During the next 40 years Deforestation: 400 M Ha Over 100 million hectares of new agricultural land Biofuel expansion, mining, urbanization etc. Consumption of forest products: 50 % increase % of industrial wood from plantations Importance of forest ecosystem services increases Carbon, water, etc. Climate change adaptation and mitigation 2

3 Forest loss and climate emissions Some % of global carbon emissions are from forest loss and land-use change mainly in the tropics More carbon to the atmosphere than comes from the fossil fuel-intensive global transport sector In many developing countries, emissions from land-use change account for % of total national emissions 3

4 CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget PgC Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO 2 land ocean (5 models) 2.3 (4 models) 4

5 Fire area and emissions Average over Region Area burned (Mha yr -1 ) Emissions (TgC yr -1 ) Boreal Asia (BOAS) 9.7 ± ± 133 N. Africa (NHAF) ± ± 75 S. Africa (SHAF) 79.2 ± ± 72 Southeast Asia (SEAS) 13.4 ± ± 14 Equatorial Asia (EQUAS) 4.0 ± ± 349 Northern S. America (NHSA) 3.9 ± ± 26 Southern S. America (SHSA) 12.8 ± ± 88 Global Total ± ± 403 Van der Werf et al

6 Urgency protection of forests allows immediate action In order to avoid dangerous climate change of 2 o C, global greenhouse gas emissions should start declining by 2015 Parry et al

7 Forests in the UNFCCC context Sustainable forest management Rehabilitation/restoration/revegetation Reforestation Degradation Afforestation Deforestation Kyoto - Annex 1 Kyoto - CDM A/R REDD FOREST NON- FOREST 7

8 How can forests mitigate CC? Increasing carbon stocks Creating plantations Policy Developing agroforestry Years Avoiding losses of carbon stocks Benefit Baseline Forest Reducing deforestation and degradation Applying other REDD+ activities With conservation Benefit Baseline Years Producing biomaterials and bioenergy Energy 8

9 Scope of REDD+ Forest carbon (C) = Forest Area (ha) * Carbon Density (C/ha) Changes in Forest area (hectares) Carbon density (carbon per hectare) Reduce negative change Avoided deforestation (RED) Avoided degradation (REDD) Enhance positive change Afforestation & reforestation (A/R) Enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) 9

10 Eligible REDD+ Actions policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (UNFCCC Decision 2/CP.13 11). Reduced emissions from: Deforestation Forest degradation And the role of Conservation Sustainable management of forests Enhancement of forest carbon stocks 10

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12 Net Change in Forest Area (ha/year) Source: FAO

13 Forest transition Forest cover Triggers: access by road Reinforcing loops: demand, capital accumulation, population Stabilizing loops: forest scarcity, rural development Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric. mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Time Mather 1992 Mather

14 Forest transition: France and Costa Rica France (0-2000) Costa Rica ( ) 14

15 Forest transition Forest cover PNG/DR Congo Indonesia/Brazil India China/Costa Rica Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric. mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Time Kanninen et al. (2007) 15

16 Scenario: forest sector mitigation by 2030 Mitigation potential IPCC (2007): 1-3 Gt CO2 eq. year-1 Isenberg & Potvin (2010): Gt CO2 eq. year-1 Mitigation cost billion USD year -1 Comparison Value of global carbon markets in 2008: 126 billion USD year -1 Annual financial flows (ODA & investments) to forestry sector in developing countries: billion USD year -1 Forest sector ODA billion USD year -1 (about 1% of the total ODA) 16

17 Forest cover and percentage of trees on farms Importance of forests Ecosystem services Drivers of change - global outcomes Global changes local realities Forest transition Climate change agenda and forests Source data: FAO, ICRAF 17

18 Two-track approach to REDD+ TRANSFORMATIONAL REFORMS SPECIFIC POLICIES Tenure reform Governance Decentralization may or may not in itself lead to REDD+ but positive effects on equity and poverty reduction, which is necessary for the longterm success of REDD+ efforts Payments for Ecosystem Services Community-based NRM Agricultural policies Energy policies Land use restrictions Sustainable forest management Sectorial, simpler (Angelsen et al., 2009) 18

19 Enabling REDD+ through broad policy reforms Tenure and rights - critical Essential for long-term success of REDD+ Some no regret REDD policies available Corruption Puts a severe limit, in some cases very difficult to address (systemic institutional changes needed) Monitoring (MRV) of both carbon and financial flows can reduce risks Decentralization & Community-based forest management Enhancing effective, efficient, and equitable outcomes Research on success [and failure] factors 19

20 Why might REDD+ succeed? Volume of finance sufficient (?) to shift the political economy of drivers of deforestation and degradation Political attention and engagement at the national level Alignment of the interests of multiple constituencies Performance-based finance payments based on achievements 20

21 Why might REDD fail? Main barriers: For participating in REDD: Weak institutions and governance structures Conflicts (e.g. central vs. local governmentetc.) Lack of human and institutional capacity For successful REDD: Those above Political economy underlying causes of deforestation Lack of transparency, corruption 21

22 Forests and climate change: Mitigation and adaptation Climate change and Climate variability Impacts Mitigation Adaptation maintaining and increasing ecosystem C pools and C sequestration reducing emissions from biosphere Responses maintaining and increasing ecosystem resilience reducing vulnerability 22

23 Conclusions REDD+: part of a global climate change regime National circumstances and priorities Effectiveness, efficiency, and equity Overshooting climate targets adaptation needed Adaptation becomes crucial for sustainable development Mitigation needs adaptation (= synergies) Adaptation is essential to protect future mitigation potential of forests Future focus on: Drivers of change (dynamics), barriers of adoption, Synergies (win-win), trade-offs Links between sustainable development, forests and and adaptation to climate change 23

24 Thank you for your attention 24