HTAP Experiment Set 4: Future Emission and Climate Scenarios

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1 HTAP Experiment Set 4: Future Emission and Climate Scenarios Thanks to: Bill Battye (EC/R) and Suvi Monni (JRC) Ruth Doherty, Ian MacKenzie, David Stevenson (University of Edinburgh)

2 HTAP Experiment Set 4: Future Emission and Climate Scenarios Two parts: FE: Future Emissions with 21 Meteorology Estimate a reasonable range of possible changes in the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions FC: Future Meteorology with 21 Emissions Explore the potential for future shifts in transport patterns due to climate change

3 RCP Scenarios The Integrated Assessment Modeling Community is developing 4 Reference Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for analysis in IPCC AR5. Model RF at 21 W/m 2 Institute IMAGE 2.6 MPN MiniCAM 4.5 PNNL AIM 6. NIES MESSAGE 8.5 IIASA

4 RCP Global Trends Sulfur OC CO NOx VOC NH 3

5 Bounding the RCP Scenarios HTAP High 22 HTAP Low 25 NO X MESSAGE 8.5 IMAGE 2.6 VOC IMAGE 2.6 IMAGE 2.6 SO 2 MiniCAM 4.5 IMAGE 2.6 BC IMAGE 2.6 MiniCAM 4.5 OC IMAGE 2.6 MiniCAM 4.5 CO MESSAGE 8.5 IMAGE 2.6 CH 4 MESSAGE 8.5 IMAGE 2.6 NH 3 MESSAGE 8.5 MiniCAM 4.5

6 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% Regional Distribution of SO 2 Emissions % 4% 3% 2% 1% % OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) SO 2

7 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total Change in emissions (%) SO 2 Change by Region from 2 to 22 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE IIASA GAINS SO 2

8 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) Change in emissions (%) SO 2 Change by Region from 2 to 25 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE SO 2

9 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % SO 2 Emissions by Source Category Energy Industry Aviation Intl shipping Surf transport Solvents Res & comml Waste Animals & crops Ag burning Savannah burn Deforestation Total (Tg) SO 2

10 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% Regional Distribution of NO X Emissions % 4% 3% 2% 1% % OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) NO X

11 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total Change in emissions (%) NO X Change by Region from 2 to 22 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE IIASA GAINS NO X

12 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) Change in emissions (%) NO X Change by Region from 2 to 25 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE NO X

13 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % NO X Emissions by Source Category Energy Industry Aviation Intl shipping Surf transport Solvents Res & comml Waste Animals & crops Ag burning Savannah burn Deforestation Total (Tg) NO X

14 1% Regional Distribution of VOC Emissions 25 9% 8% 2 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) VOC

15 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total Change in emissions (%) VOC Change by Region from 2 to 22 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE IIASA GAINS VOC

16 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) Change in emissions (%) VOC Change by Region from 2 to 25 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE VOC

17 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % VOC Emissions by Source Category Energy Industry Aviation Intl shipping Surf transport Solvents Res & comml Waste Animals & crops Ag burning Savannah burn Deforestation Total (Tg) VOC

18 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% Regional Distribution of CO Emissions % 4% 3% 2% 1% % OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) CO

19 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total Change in emissions (%) CO Change by Region from 2 to 22 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE IIASA GAINS CO

20 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) Change in emissions (%) CO Change by Region from 2 to 25 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE CO

21 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % CO Emissions by Source Category Energy Industry Aviation Intl shipping Surf transport Solvents Res & comml Waste Animals & crops Ag burning Savannah burn Deforestation Total (Tg) CO

22 1% Regional Distribution of BC Emissions 9 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) BC

23 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total Change in emissions (%) BC Change by Region from 2 to 22 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE IIASA GAINS BC

24 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) Change in emissions (%) BC Change by Region from 2 to 25 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE BC

25 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BC Emissions by Source Category Energy Industry Aviation Intl shipping Surf transport Solvents Res & comml Waste Animals & crops Ag burning Savannah burn Deforestation Total (Tg) BC

26 1% Regional Distribution of OC Emissions 45 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) OC

27 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total Change in emissions (%) OC Change by Region from 2 to 22 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE IIASA GAINS OC

28 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) Change in emissions (%) OC Change by Region from 2 to 25 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE OC

29 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % OC Emissions by Source Category Energy Industry Aviation Intl shipping Surf transport Solvents Res & comml Waste Animals & crops Ag burning Savannah burn Deforestation Total (Tg) OC

30 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% Regional Distribution of NH 3 Emissions % 4% 3% 2% 1% % OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) NH 3

31 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total Change in emissions (%) NH 3 Change by Region from 2 to 22 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE IIASA GAINS NH 3

32 OECD Reforming econ Mideast & Afr Asia Latin America Total (Tg) Change in emissions (%) NH 3 Change by Region from 2 to 25 IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE NH 3

33 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % NH 3 Emissions by Source Category Energy Industry Aviation Intl shipping Surf transport Solvents Res & comml Waste Animals & crops Ag burning Savannah burn Deforestation Total (Tg) NH 3

34 Proposed FE Experiments FE1: 22 High Emissions (~ SR1) FE2: 25 Low Emissions (~ SR1) FE3: 2% dec of all polls from FE1 (~ SR6) NA, EU, EA, SA, GL FE4: 2% dec of all polls from FE2 (~SR6) NA, EU, EA, SA, GL Temporal allocation will be proportional to 21

35 Some Issues with FE Experiments How do we capture the range of possible futures? Min-Max Approach No one model is consistently low or high Mixing models creates inconsistent spatial distributions Easily communicated and implemented Sensitivity Analyses Timing of Simulations

36 Proposed FC Experiments FC1: SR1 with 2 A2 Climate (3 years) Capture some interannual variability around SR1? FC2: SR1 with 21 A2 Climate (3 years) Capture some shift in transport patterns? FC3: 2% dec of all polls from FC1 (~ SR6) NA, EU, EA, SA, GL FC4: 2% dec of all polls from FC2 (~ SR6) NA, EU, EA, SA, GL Use native SSTs from group s coupled GCM

37 Some Issues with FC Experiments RCP results will not be ready in time Fall back to SRES: A2 or A1B Maintaining Comparibility to SR runs Future Climate & Future Emissions? Which Models? Timing? Step-wise approach?

38 Radiative forcing (W/m 2 ) Stabilization In 25 level In 25 CO 2 concentration (ppm) Stabilization level RCPs IMAGE MiniCAM MESSAGE a 552 a SRES b b1_low b1_high b a a1b a a1f a a1f_lo 4.95 a 576 a a1f_hi 5.2 a 582 a a1t a a 539 a Notes: a - Levels do not stabilize by 21.

39 Emissions (Tg/yr) Comparison of SR1 with RCP baseline emissions for NO X Global Northern Hem Southern Hem Europe North America South Asia East Asia SR1 total SR1 anthropogenic RCP

40 Global Northern Hem Southern Hem Europe North America South Asia East Asia Emissions (Tg/yr) Comparison of SR1 with RCP baseline emissions for SO 2 SR1 total SR1 anthropogenic RCP

41 1, Global Northern Hem Southern Hem Europe North America South Asia East Asia Emissions (Tg/yr) Comparison of SR1 with RCP baseline emissions for VOC SR1 total SR1 anthropogenic RCP

42 Global Northern Hem Southern Hem Europe North America South Asia East Asia Emissions (Tg/yr) Comparison of SR1 with RCP baseline emissions for BC SR1 total SR1 anthropogenic RCP

43 Emissions (Tg/yr) Comparison of SR1 with RCP baseline emissions for OC Global Northern Hem Southern Hem Europe North America South Asia East Asia SR1 total SR1 anthropogenic RCP

44 Emissions (Tg/yr) 1,2 1, Comparison of SR1 with RCP baseline emissions for CO Global Northern Hem Southern Hem Europe North America South Asia East Asia SR1 total SR1 anthropogenic RCP

45 Emissions (Tg/yr) Comparison of SR1 with RCP baseline emissions for NH 3 Global Northern Hem Southern Hem Europe North America South Asia East Asia SR1 total SR1 anthropogenic RCP