Overview of European sawn softwood market in 2016 International Softwood Conference Paris, October Andreas von Möller

Transcription

1 Overview of European sawn softwood market in 2016 International Softwood Conference Paris, October 2016 Andreas von Möller

2 Eurostat construction production index for the EU Member States value of seasonally adjusted production output (2010 = 100) Monthly for the period Jun 2012 to July 2016 Slow pace of recovery in construction Value of EU construction in July 2016 still 5% lower than 2010 & 20% down on 2008 Construction activity rising at the end of 2015 but dipped again in 2016 Volatile activity in Poland fell sharply in 2016 Activity still good in Germany & UK Spain & Netherlands recovering strongly France & Italy flat at low level Source: Eurostat

3 Eurostat construction confidence index for the EU Member States Jun 2012 to Aug 2016 Confidence rising but still fragile across EU Consistent increase in confidence in Netherlands & Germany Confidence in UK dipped after Brexit vote Rising confidence in France & Italy but still in negative territory Source: Eurostat note index value of below zero indicates balance of construction professionals expect declining orders over the following 3 months Sharp decrease in confidence in Spain during 2016 despite rising production value

4 EU Building Permits Index Q to Q =100 Building Permits increasing in 2016 but still well below 2010 Sharp rise in Germany in 2015 & 2016 Building permits rising in Poland while construction value is falling UK rising in 2014 & 2015 but dipped in 2016 France & Spain low but rising slowly in 2015 & 2016 Netherlands up sharply in 2014 & 2015 but falling in 2016 Source: Eurostat

5 EU door sector recovers ground Total value of wood doors supplied to the EU28 increased 7.1% to 6.62b in Production value in 2015: Increased in Germany (+6.2%), UK (+7.1%), Poland (+11.2%), Spain (+19.0%) & Netherlands (+4.9%). Stable in Italy & Sweden Declined in France ( 1.7%), Austria ( 2.8%) Data compiled by Forest Industries Intelligence Ltd from Eurostat PRODCOM and COMEXT statistics.

6 Flat EU window production Total value of wood windows supplied to the EU28 increased only 1.2% to 6.11b in Production value in 2015: Increased in Italy (+2.4%), Poland (+8.3%), Denmark (+8.7%) and Netherlands (+2.2%). Stable in Sweden Declined in Germany ( 4.0%), France ( 4.8%), Austria ( 8.5% and UK ( 13.3%) Data compiled by Forest Industries Intelligence Ltd from Eurostat PRODCOM and COMEXT statistics.

7 UN data indicates stable sawn softwood production in Europe European sawn softwood production increased 0.25% to million m 3 in 2015 EU28 production: 93.5 million m 3 in both 2014 and 2015 Source: Forest Industries Intelligence analysis of FAOSTAT & UNECE Europe here includes all European countries including Turkey but excluding CIS.

8 Source: FAOSTAT/UNECE

9 UN estimate EU sawn softwood consumption up 1% in 2015 Consumption rises from 79.2m m3 in 2014 to 80.0m m3 in 2015 Consumption during 2015: Increases in UK (+1% to 9.0m m3), Sweden (+2% to 5.9m m3), Austria (+4% to 5.3m m3), & Poland (+6% to 4.6m m3) Stable in Italy (4.6 m m3) Declines in France ( 5% to 8.2m m3 & Finland 15% to 3.4m m3 Source: Forest Industries Intelligence analysis of UNECE Production & COMEXT trade data

10 Slow growth in exports by EU countries in 2015 and 2016: Year 2015: +1% to 45.2m m 3 Jan Jun 2016: +2% to 23.9m m 3 First 6 months of 2016: Exports increased from: Finland: +13% to 4.4m m 3 Germany: +6% to 3.2m m 3 Austria: +5% to 2.8m m 3 Latvia: +6% to 1.3m m 3 Exports stable from Sweden Exports decreased from: Czech R.: 1% to 0.7m m3 Romania: 34% to 0.7m m 3 Slovenia: 8% to 0.6m Source: Forest Industries Intelligence Ltd analysis of Eurostat for ETTF

11 Total imports by EU countries increased in 2015 & accelerated in 2016: Year 2015: +4% to 30.3m m 3 Jan Jun 2016: +10% to 16.7m m 3 First 6 months of 2016, imports increased into most EU countries including: UK: +7% to 3.0m m 3 Germany: +11% to 2.2m m 3 Italy : +6% to 2.0m m 3 France: +15% to 1.4m m 3 Austria: +29% to 1.1m m 3 Netherlands: +9% to 1.1m m 3 Denmark: +1% to 0.6m m 3 Estonia: +12% to 0.5m m 3 Spain: +14% to 0.4m m 3 Poland: +3% to 0.4m m 3 Latvia: +35% to 0.4m m 3 Imports decreased into: Belgium: 4% to 1.0m m 3 Source: Forest Industries Intelligence Ltd analysis of Eurostat for ETTF

12 EU external sawn softwood trade EU28 imports EU28 exports EU28 trade surplus of 12.0 million m3 in 2015 against EU domestic consumption of 80m m3

13 Per capita sawn softwood consumption in Europe in 2015 Significant growth potential in South & East Europe Scope to expand in traditional import markets UK, Netherlands, France Source: Forest Industries Intelligence Ltd analysis of FAOSTAT, Global Trade Atlas and Eurostat COMEXT

14 COUNTRY BY COUNTRY

15 France Coming elections causes stagnation After a strong decrease over the last 3 years imports are levelling off in 2016 Domestic production gains market share vs. imports Confidence is returning. Housing starts flat

16 Italy After years of decline returning to a slight growth: + 0,8% Investment in buildings: fall of 35% bottomed out early 2016 Improvement in real estate sale +21% Q1/16 vs Q1/15 Transactions and consumption show an overall improvement in Q1. Q2 starts to show different trends. Nervous market. Increase in timber construction quota Difficult access to credit for enterprises

17 Denmark Construction still not at pre crisis level, however real estate market has improved, which gives a positive effect on the consumer market Interest rates remain historically low in principal negative interest on savings Softwood import has improved in 2016 with app. 10 % (Jan July)

18 The Netherlands Economy is recovering from crisis Economy is expected to grow by 1,8% in 2016 and 2,1% in 2017 Decline in housing 40% from Turnaround since 2015 After a period of decrease softwood market recovering

19 Spain Macro economic figures continue to improve, but very slowly and from very low Unemployment dropping, but still at 19% Construction continues to grow Political uncertainty contributes to climate of distrust. Consumer confidence is declining

20 Germany Economy growing at modest level Over 300k building permits in 2015 (<200K in 2009) Sales growth + 6% in 1st half year 2016 conditions for timber are good

21 United Kingdom Overall decline in 2015 in production and import Forecast 2016: +4% increase in production, + 3% increase in imports Forecast 2017: low growth in production and plateauing of imports and exports

22 Belgium Economy early 2016 influenced by terrorist attacks. Last months slight increase. Fundamentals stay positive. Expected growth 2016 and ,4% p.a. Stable demand but payment problems due to difficulties in getting credit

23 Summary General conditions improved. Tired of bad news. Proud survivor attitude Demand and consumption increased Financial conditions improved Home grown content increasing Wood in construction spreading everywhere Stability in Sup. vs Dem. appreciated by all

24 YTD and Outlook Generally continuous good mood Business at a little slower pace in Q3, but no worry Confidence for rest of 2016 Expectations modest but positive into 2017 Just go on like this

25 Thanks for your interest and patience Andreas von Möller President ETTF