What potential do ecosystems and species have in a changing environment?

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1 What potential do ecosystems and species have in a changing environment? Sandra Balzer Federal Agency for Nature Conservation Unit Habitats Directive / Natura 2000 International Workshop Ecological Networks and Climate Change, October 2008, Isle of Vilm

2 Status quo of the german biodiversity More than 14 % of the german terrestrial area are Natura 2000 sites, national parks and nature reserves ca. 41 % of the german marine area are Natura 2000 sites Only a third of the species and habitats protected under the habitats directive are in a good conservation status (national report 2007) 72,5 % of the german biotopes are threatened (Red List 2006) 40 % of the german species are endangered (Red List 1998) land use

3 Questions How are habitat types expected to change due to climate change not only in location but also in species? Can it be expected that new habitat types will form? How will their ecosystem change and can these be taken over by other or new habitats? Which specific demands on arise from this? Wich demands e.g. on water, agriculture and forest policy arise from this?

4 Observed Effects on Biodiversity changes of phenology changes in species interaction and species could be expect by changes of phenology Flowering time of apple 1961 to 1990 Flowering time of apple 1991 to 1999 Schanowski 2007

5 Observed Effects on Biodiversity changes of range changes in species range: increase of range of species with adaptation to higher temperatures changed distribution of changes in species interaction and species Lycaena dispar (butterfly) could be in expect by changes southwest of range Germany Schanowski 2007

6 Observed Effects on Biodiversity changes of range changes in species range: migration of species changed distribution of Mantis religiosa (mantid) in Germany (green points: occurences since 1990) Schanowski 2007 changes in species interaction and species could be expect by changes of range

7 observed shift of water zone Classes of temperature of biocoenotic regions of alpine rivers Kromb-Kolp (2003)

8 changes in species Loss of some plant and animal species like alpine or arctic ones because of increasing temperature in winter: Snow grouse (prey animal of stone eagle) No higher way to go Loss of some plant and animal species in the lowland because of increasing temperature in summer and summer drought: Spruce (relict stand of spruce in saxony) No mountain area to go

9 species How are habitat types expected to change due to climate change not only in location but also in species? Loss of locations (e.g. mires, temporary and permanent standing water) Species The species will change because of new species and a loss of species, changes of species competition and species interactions But: there must no changement in the function of the habitat type as habitat for species And there must no damages in ecosystem

10 Estimated shift of vegetation zone Scenario of development of the vegetation zones in the Alps

11 loss of habitat types Habitat type: glaciers Where we lose habitat types there we will could get new ones, but which one? Filling the gaps by other habitats with increasing distribution Developing of intermediate stages to stabil habitats

12 new habitats Existing habitats could be changed by new species (or aliens) in structure and But we did not know if these structure and are right for the survival of the native flora and fauna New habitats will be develop in new climate conditions But we did not know which species will be there exactly (e.g. type of dry woodland of eastern europe in Germany / Brandenburg, type of dry grassland of southwestern europe in Germany / Oberrhein

13 ecosystem How will their ecosystem change and can these be taken over by other or new habitats? Neozoa in German waters

14 Pacific oyster reefs/habitat type with new structure new habitat type? The Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) appears to be more ly potent than the European oyster (Ostrea edulis) Will the new oyster reefs, together with their associated community of organisms, be a positive example of population 'enrichment'? Blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) are eventually overgrown Neozoic or invasiv species?

15 Options for action Adaptive measures e.g. restoration and improvement of water cycle in degenerated ecosystems and habitats for example bogs and fens Where? Core areas, buffer zones and stepping stones Recreation of habitats for example rivers

16 Options for action II maintainance and development of effective structural and functional coherence (e.g. linear structures like hedges) inside and between core areas Development of connectivity between core areas and potential habitats with higher permeability of the landscape A sustainabel use in agriculture and forestry and by adaptation measures to mitigate climate change effects Enforcement of implementation of Removal of anthropogenic barriers (e.g. in rivers)

17 Options III ex-situ conservation for singular species Reintroducement / translocation of some species (e.g. where necessary for food chain) monitoring of climate effects on biodiversity for species with small dispersal rates by enlargement of protected areas integration of the mitigation measures of nature conservation in all policy goals

18 demands on 1) dispersal over small distances: on local and regional level implemention of landscape features / stepping stones 2) reducing the habitat fragmentation by planning corridors 3) improvement of connectivity along altitudenal gradients and between landscape units of high nature value Lucanus cervus

19 demands on safeguarding the permeability of landscape due to a adaptiv land use developing the conservation status of habitats in the core areas

20 Outlook I Research projects and results are needed about: the requirements of species and habitats and their sensitivity against climate change the optimum of species and their genetic plasticity changes of species competition changes of species to species interaction under climate change Establishment of species and habitats on new sites a list of very threatened species and ecotypes where ex situ measurements could be necessary a list of affected habitats and species by climate change identification of potential habitats and locations research results

21 Outlook II Spatial and landscape planning: Identify and protect potential areas on different scales On local scale for: sessile species, species with low dispersal, species and habitats of the alpine and mountain regions and isolated lowland mires On regional scale for: species with medium to high mobility or high dispersal rate, habitats with higher dynamics like dunes, rivers On national and international scale for: migratory species, marine habitats and species, streams Development of minimum requirements for landscape permeability under climate change conditions (arable land and forests, flood control) planning policy

22 Research and Development Projects of BfN Germany s protected areas and climate change (PIK, UFZ, Uni Mainz, FHE Eberswalde) ( ) Influences of climate change on animals, plants and habitats and adaptation measures of nature conservation (Uni Bayreuth) ( )

23 Thank you very much for your attention! Contact: Unit Natura 2000/ Habitats Directive Federal Agency of Nature Conservation