EVALUATION OF THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM CALIOPE IN SPAIN FOR 2011

Transcription

1 EVALUATION OF THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM CALIOPE IN SPAIN FOR 2011 J. M. Baldasano, M. T. Pay, G. Arévalo, S. Gassó Geneva, 13 December 2012

2 CALIOPE Air Quality Forecasting System ( Spain: 4 km (399x399 grid cells ), Europe: 12 km (480x400 grid cells ) Modules - Meteorology: WRF-ARW v3.2.1, ibc: GFS (NCEP) 38 sigma levels; top of the atmosphere 50 hpa - Emissions: HERMES - Chemistry: CMAQ-CTM v4.5, CBIV, Cloud chem. (aqu.), Aerosol module (AERO4), bc: LMDz-INCA model, 15sigma levels - Mineral dust from Africa: BSC-DREAM8b - Post-processes by Kalman filter - Evaluation: NRT-ground level observations, satellite, ozone soundes

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4 Confidence on the CALIOPE AQF system 1. Peer Review Publications: Domain 2. Near-Real Time (NRT) evaluation: Reference Europe Pay et al. (2010, 2012a) Basart et al. (2011) Baldasano et al. (2011) Spain Pay et al. (2011, 2012b) Sicardi et al. (2011) Barcelona & Madrid Gonçalves et al. (2009) Soret et al. (2011) Cataluña (NE Spain) Jiménez-Guerrero et al. (2008) 4

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6 Database air quality stations (201209) Total number of stations Domain Total Rural Suburban Urban Total (39%) 371 (41%) 178 (20%) Total number of measuring points by pollutant Domain O 3 NO 2 SO 2 PM 10 PM 2.5 Total Number of points per domain and station type Domain Total Rural Suburban Urban UE (51%) 279 (49%) IP (27%) 108 (29%) 160 (43%) CAN 33 5 (15%) 10 (30%) 18 (55%) 6

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11 Applicative computer cartography

12 Metrics: quality criteria Pollutant r MB RMSE (µg/m3) (µg/m3) r = 1* MB = 0* RMSE = 0* O 3 Very good r > 0.70 MB < 5 RMSE < 10 Good 0.50 < r MB < RMSE < 20 Aceptable 0.30 < r MB < RMSE < 30 Bad 0.10 < r MB < RMSE < 40 Very bad r 0.10 MB 30 RMSE 30 NO 2 Very good r > 0.60 MB < 5 RMSE < 5 Good 0.40 < r MB < 10 5 RMSE < 15 Aceptable 0.20 < r MB < RMSE < 25 Bad 0.10 < r MB < RMSE < 35 Very bad r 0.10 MB 30 RMSE 35 SO 2 Very good r > 0.40 MB < 3 RMSE < 5 Good 0.30 < r MB < 5 5 RMSE < 15 Aceptable 0.20 < r MB < RMSE < 25 Bad 0.10 < r MB < RMSE < 35 Very bad r 0.10 MB 20 RMSE 35 PM 10 Very good r > 0.55 MB < 10 RMSE < 10 Good 0.40 < r MB < RMSE < 15 Aceptable 0.25 < r MB < RMSE < 20 Bad 0.10 < r MB < RMSE < 30 Very bad r 0.10 MB 30 RMSE 30 PM 2.5 Very good r > 0.55 MB < 5 RMSE < 5 Good 0.40 < r MB < 10 5 RMSE < 15 Aceptable 0.25 < r MB < RMSE < 25 Bad 0.10 < r MB < RMSE < 35 Very bad r 0.10 MB 30 RMSE 35 12

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16 O3 has the better statistics. The average correlation coefficient is 0.68, with a bias of 1 μg/m3. SO2 present the worst results, this behavior is influenced by the variability of emissions of this pollutant. Background levels of SO2 are low (~ 4-5 μg/m3) NO2 results indicate that 91% of the stations have an annual average bias ± 5 μg/m3 hourly concentrations; regarding the correlation, 74% of the stations has a behavior between "very good" and "good (r > 0.40, and 33% with the stations > 0.60). PM10 indicates that 93% of the stations have an annual average bias ± 10 μg/m3; for the correlation, 57% of the stations show a behavior between "very good" and "good" (r > 0.4, with only 6% of the stations with r > 0.55). PM2.5 assessment indicates that 86% of the stations have an annual average bias ± 5 μg/m3; for the correlation, 39% of the stations show a behavior between "very good" and "good" (r> 0.4, with only 7% of the stations with r> 0.55). During certain episodes of Saharan dust intrusion, BSC-DREAM8b model over estimates the contribution of dust to PM10 and PM

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18 O 3 18

19 PM10 19

20 PM2.5 20

21 SO 2 21

22 AIR QUALITY SPAIN 2011: NO 2, O 3 and SO 2 22

23 AIR QUALITY SPAIN 2011: Particulate matter 23

24 AIR QUALITY EUROPE

25 2013 Developments New global chemical boundary conditions Update CTM version: CMAQ v5, Update emission inventory HERMES v2.0 Increase the number of layer in the CTM New spatial resolution new computational resources Updated mineral dust model NMMB/BSC-Dust

26 Thank you for your attention Webs: Daily Operational Air Quality Forecasts Europe / Spain: Daily BSC-DREAM8b mineral dust model forecasts North Africa/Europe/East-Asia: Daily NMMB/BSC-Dust mineral dust model forecasts Global and Sahara desert area: 26