Predicting current and future potential ranges. of eucalypt plantations in the Iberian Peninsula. and possible conflicts with the Natura 2000

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1 Predicting current and future potential ranges of eucalypt plantations in the Iberian Peninsula and possible conflicts with the Natura 2000 Ernesto Deus Joaquim Sande Silva Pilar Castro-Díez Ângela Lomba María Laura Ortiz Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union Joana Vicente

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3 In a nutshell Climate change will affect species distribution The range shifts will depend on the climate change pathways We used SDM to project the future distribution of eucalypt plantations in Iberia using climatic data Even through climate is not the only predictor, it can depict the most productive areas *Possible scenarios We rated productivity across Iberia and the importance of biodiversity areas to depict where conflicts are more likely to occur

4 EUCALYPTS agriculture.gov.au pxhere.com trover.com

5 INTRODUCTION TO EUROPE Late 18th century

6 MAIN EUCALYPT SPP. Eucalyptus globulus Eucalyptus camaldulensis Eucalyptus nitens Eucalyptus gunnii Eucalyptus viminalis

7 E. GLOBULUS COVERAGE 2.4 million ha worlwide 1.3 million ha in Iberia inovgeo.pt Portugal (800k ha; 9%) Cmjornal.pt Spain (500k ha; 1%) inovgeo.pt Expresso.pt Cerasoli et al. (2016)

8 Limited seed dispersal IMPORTANT TRAITS Wide environmental tolerance Rapid growth Maturity 3-6 years Cerasoli et al. (2016) Resprouts Fire-triggered seed shed

9 Abandonment E. GLOBULUS PLANTATIONS Private forests Small size High tree density Mono-specific stands 2-3 rotations (10-12 years)

10 E. GLOBULUS EXPANSION ( ) A massive, uncontrolled Portugal proliferation of monospecific exotic plantations with major landscape Spain M ha 1,5 1,2 0,9 0,6 transformations 0,3 0,

11 E. GLOBULUS VS. NATURA 2000 Eucalyptus globulus Natura 2000

12 NATURA 2000 Coordinated network of protected areas designated under the Birds Directive and the Habitats Directive to preserve the most endangered European habitats and species Iberian Peninsula

13 IBERIAN BIODIVERSITY 20% OF NATURA 2000 LOCATED IN IBERIA; 1505 sites (26%; 15.6M ha) Wikipedia Pinterest Flora-on BioLib Ittiofauna

14 Ecological impacts

15 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

16 POTENTIAL CONFLICTS WITH NATURA 2000 Replacement of valuable habitats (planting or invasion) Reduced biodiversity (monospecific plantations) Fragmentation of habitats Obstruct species movement Obstruct gene flow Halt species migration Wildfires

17 E. GLOBULUS VS. NATURA 2000 Eucalyptus globulus Natura 2000 Lets zoom in

18 Natura 2000 E. globulus plantations

19 Natura 2000 E. globulus plantations

20 Natura 2000 E. globulus plantations

21 PRELIMINARY ANALYSES Is E. globulus inside and around Natura 2000? Did plantations expanded inside and around Natura 2000?

22 150 sites hosted E. globulus at the time of designation PRELIMINARY ANALYSES Can we find E. globulus inside and around Natura 2000? c. 150,000 ha (12%) of E. globulus inside Natura 2000 sites c. 150,000 ha (12%) of E. globulus within a 1 km buffer 235 Natura 2000 sites host E. globulus plantations Average 6% cover by E. globulus; 21 sites >20% cover; 4 sites >50% cover

23 PRELIMINARY ANALYSES Did plantations expanded inside Natura 2000? Dynamics *sample of 26 sites designated before the first land-cover map (year 1990) Overall, plantations decresead c. 37%, yet mostly influenced by three sites in SW Spain Without the three sites, plantations expanded 34% (expanded in 19 out of 26 sites) Portugal (+48%) Spain (+32%; without the three sites)

24 PRELIMINARY ANALYSES Did plantations expanded around Natura 2000? Around the Natura 2000, plantations expanded 71% Portugal (+46%) Spain (+69%)

25 PROJECTING E. GLOBULUS DISTRIBUTION Species Distribution Models Grid of 10x10 km (6036 cells) Model projection was reclassified into a probability ramp, that can be assumed as levels of suitability for plantations

26 ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES

27 VARIABLE IMPORTANCE

28 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (YEARS ) RCP8.5 (worst case scenario) Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6 Four scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration adopted by the IPCC in 2014 (best case scenario)

29 RESULTS: PROJECTIONS

30 RESULTS: PROJECTIONS 1. The suitable range is expected to reduce under both scenarios (economical impact) RCP RCP Shrinking range more expressive under RCP The suitability will increase in most of the receding range (and new areas emerge)

31 RATING BIODIVERSITY IMPORTANCE In order to rate the conflicts we had to rate biodiversity importance in each 10x10km cell 3 sites 1-2 sites 0 sites Each cell was classified according to the number of Natura 2000 sites within

32 RATING BIODIVERSITY IMPORTANCE Conflict was rated based on the combination of environmental suitability and level of biodiversity importance for each 10x10 km cell

33 FINAL RESULTS: CONFLICTS

34 RESULTS: CONFLICTS 1. The extension of potential conflicts will likely decrease, especially under the RCP Conflicts will aggravate due to the improved suitability for plantations

35 DISCUSSION Range contraction NOT EQUAL TO less plantations; it may be counterbalanced by at least four reasons: a) New suitable areas will emerge b) Plantations in the lost range will likely persist (adandoned?) c) The improved suitability may encourage more plantations d) Market may encourage new plantations to compensate losses Therefore, plantations may proliferate in the receding range

36 DISCUSSION Protected areas are not static!

37 MITIGATING CONFLICTS AND IMPACTS 1. The importance of eucalypt plantations require efforts in reconciling plantations with conservation values and strategies 2. Improve planning monitoring, supervision, law enforcement 3. Safety belt around protected areas 4. Turn E. globulus plantations more environment-friendly 5. Foresee the need of new protected areas

38 Thank you Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union