)~--~ L' q608 K? OFFICIAL 7 or- 3 DOCUMENTSi

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1 )~--~ L' q608 K? OFFICIAL 7 or- 3 DOCUMENTSi Amended and Restated Supplemental Letter No. 2 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C United States of America REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN Re: Dear Sirs and Mesdames: Loan No KZ and GEF Trust Fund Grant Number TF (Forest Protection and Reforestation Project) Performance Monitoring Indicators Referring to the provisions of Schedule 5, paragraph 10(a) of the Loan Agreement and paragraph 12(a) of Schedule 4 to the Global Environment Facility Trust Fund Grant Agreement (Forest Protection and Reforestation Project) dated November 6, 2006 between the Republic of Kazakhstan (the Borrower) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the Bank), the Borrower hereby confirms to the Bank that, from this date onwards, the indicators set forth in the attachment to this letter shall serve as a basis for the Borrower to monitor and evaluate the progress of the Project and the achievements of the objectives thereof. This Amended and Restated Supplemental Letter No. 2 replaces Supplemental Letter No. 2, dated November 6, REPUBLIC OF Very truly yours, A ori Representative STAN Attachment

2 Annex 1. Performance Monitoring Indicators Republic of Kazakhstan Forest Protection and Reforestation Project Performance Monitoring Indicators Vision 2025' Outcome indicators 2025 Use of outcome information Forest lands and associated Land degradation (specifically, Set project outcomes in context rangelands rehabilitated and deterioration or lack of trees or of long-term vision well managed other vegetative cover) prevented, reduced, or ameliorated in * Irtysh pine forests: * 180,000 ha burned or deforested area replanted and 650,000 ha good condition * Dry Aral Seabed: 800,000 ha covered with vegetation (through planning and natural spread) * Effective interventions underway to maintain public saxaul rangelands in good condition * Organizational and procedural arrangements facilitating sustainable and cost-effective results applied to the management other forest lands and other public expenditure investment programs Project Development Outcome Indicators (End of Use of outcome information Objective Project) Development and initiation Land degradation (specifically Gauge of cost effective and deterioration or lack of tree or * Scale of coverage and sustainable ways of other vegetative cover) prevented, extent of changes in land environmental rehabilitation reduced, or ameliorated in degradation and associated and management of forest 0 Irtysh pine forest environmental and economic lands and associated including 41,000 ha impacts, in relationship to rangelands, with a focus on rehabilitated forest and overall magnitude of land the Irtysh pine forest, dry reversal of fire degradation trends degradation problem and in AralSeabed, and The 2025 vision is indicative only and does not represent a formal view of the Goven ment. It will be further considered and refined under the policy subromponent of the Project.

3 saxaulrangelands on 650,000 ha comparison to projections of * Dry Aral Seabed: more what would happen in absence than61,000 ha of current total 2.2 of project; mln. ha dry seabed area covered * Realism of projections by vegetation (from pre-project and adjust project design or coverage, project planting, and expectations if necessary; natural spread) * Success of new * 168,000 ha of saxaul and incentive frameworks which adjoining rangelands with will help prevent future sustainable resource-led grazing degradation and thus make management mitigation worthwhile and inform decision-making on future public investment programs in project areas Capacity and decision to upscale Gauge success of new investment programs for forest lands operational arrangements and based on improved knowledge of analytic capacities which performance, costs, and impacts as promote ongoing research and demonstrated by learning culture, responsive * Decisions to scale up Irtysh adaptation, and improved pine reforestation program accountability * Decisions to scale up vegetative planting of dry Aral seabed, and * Replication of saxaul rangeland restoration program with own funds Application of lessons learned from competitive grant subprojects and reflected in replication plan Number of people employed under Gauge magnitude of social and the project, or otherwise benefited as poverty impacts of project a result of the project Irtysh pine: 3,000 employed Dry Aral Seabed: 2,000 employed Saxaul rangelands: 1,500 employed Improved knowledge of modem Gauge extent of institutional planting and fire management impact technologies and of natural resource dynamics and management, as well as capacity of cost effective and results oriented public expenditure on forest lands Project reputation for integrity and Gauge reputation for integrity public support for improved forest and effectiveness and associated rangeland management as reflected in public opinion surveysandthusmake

4 Intermediate Results Results Indicators for Each Use of Results Monitoring Component Component IA: Irtysh pine Component IA: Component IA: forest: Improved reforestation 41,000 ha replanted during project YR I - YR 6: Low Year I - through re-establishment of period, and by year 6 unit costs of Year 6: Low levels may flag seed production areas to replanting reduced from US$ 240 per constraints in fund flow, ensure quality, applied ha to less than US$190 per ha with methodologies, or unrealistic research on cost effective survival rate increased from 30% to expectations nursery and planting 55% technologies (e.g. greenhouses, containers, seeding), and expansion of program to enable completion of reforestation of 180,000 ha by Component IB: Component IB: Component IB: Irtysh pine forest: 650,000 ha under improved fire Year I - Year 6: Low levels Development and management comprising: may flag constraints in fund implementation of improved (i) effective fire breaks and fuel flow, methodologies, forest fire management reduced buffer zones accompanied unrealistic expectations through improved fire by public education campaigns; prevention, improved fire (ii) more effective fire detection detection, fire suppression to information system with obsolete reverse long-term trends in towers replaced and new towers degradation of forest lands from fire. where needed; (iii) improved fire suppression capability through better equipment, fast-attach vehicles, replacement of obsolete fire trucks and improvement of key forest roads; and (iv) annual program of thinning and cleaning where necessary, integrated pest management support provided Component I C: Irtysh pine Component IC: PFM framework Component I C: forest: Forest Partnership designed and reflected in operational Year 1 -Year 6: Low levels development manual and then under may flag constraints in fund implementation, initially in 4 flow, methodologies, or villages and then in 12 villages unrealistic expectations Component IB A: Dry Aral Component 11 A: Component 11 A: Seabed: Vegetative planting: 52,000 ha planted and 9,000 ha Year I - Year 6: Low levels Increased afforestation through direct seeded during project period, may flag constraints in fund upgraded facilities, improved with year 6 unit costs reduced from flow, methodologies, or contracting arrangements, US$207 to less than US$175 per ha unrealistic expectations applied research on improved with survival rate no less than 25% planting methods, expansion of and using revised arrangements for program to achieve planting flexible, performance based rates of at least 31,000 ha per budgeting and contracting year by 2011.reducedbufferzonesac

5 Component 11 B: Component Il B: Component 11 B: Participatory saxaul rangelands 20 demonstrations covering a total of Year I - Year 6: Low levels rehabilitation: Herder approximately 4,000 ha covered by may flag constraints in fund agreements to enable planting with seedlings and seeds flow, methodologies, or restoration of degraded saxaul with survival rates no less than 25% unrealistic expectations rangelands, and provision of and at least 168,000 ha rangelands water resources for provided with increased access to compensatory rangelands water for grazing animals Component IlIlA: Component IA: Component IA: Improvements in policy (i) analytical studies on policy and Year I -Year 6: Low levels information, and human public expenditure; may flag constraints or resource capacity (ii) expansion of information unrealistic expectations facilities and development of information system; (iii) HRD plan and in-service program training Component IIIB: Component IIB: Component tub: Competitive grant fund for Operational manual approved, and Year I - Year 6: Numbers pilot demonstration 35 grants approved and then indicate that this component is investments (e.g. timber implemented with well monitored functioning usufruct sharing) results Component IllC: Component IIIC: Component HIC: Project administration is Bank supervision ratings Year I - Year 6: Flags administrative and satisfactory communication problems