Click to edit Master title style

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1 Click to edit Master title style Global analysis of vulnerability Emilio Chuvieco Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group University of Alcalá, Spain

2 Fire Click risk = to Danger edit * Master Vulnerability title style Ignition Cause Human Lightning Danger Fuel moisture content Live Risk Propagation Fuel types Slope weather conditions Dead Vulnerability Fireglobe project Chuvieco et al., 2014, IJWF Loss of ecological values Marginal loss of ecosystem services Houses / infrastructures Recovery time Actual value of environmental services 2

3 Fire Click risk = to Danger edit * Master Vulnerability title style Ignition Cause Human Lightning Danger Fuel moisture content Live Risk Propagation Fuel types Slope weather conditions Dead Vulnerability Fireglobe project Chuvieco et al., 2014, IJWF Loss of ecological values Marginal loss of ecosystem services Houses / infrastructures Recovery time Actual value of environmental services 3

4 Semi-operational LFMC estimation Click to edit Master title style LUT Grassland Jurdao et al., 2013 Shrubland Jurdao et al., 2013 Woodland Jurdao et al Grassland Yebra et al Shrubland Yebra and Chuvieco 2009 Woodland Jurdao et al., 2013 MODIS images MCD43 Bands - NDII 6 Grassland Shrubland Woodland Grassland Shrubland Woodland Auxiliary information Vegetation Regions Spectral Angle Final LFMC map

5 Yebra et al., 2016 LFMC estimation from MODIS RTM Click to edit Master title style modelling WET DRY

6 Fire Click risk to = Danger edit Master * Vulnerability title style Danger Reduction of ecological values Recovery time Risk Vulnerability Fireglobe project Chuvieco et al., 2014, IJWF Reduction of socio-economic values Post-fire value of ecosystem services Losses in houses and infraestructure Pre-fire value of ecosystem services

7 Present Click to Marginal edit Master Loss (PML) title style PPPPPP = MMMM 1 (1 + rr) log nn rr ML = V 1 V 0 V 0 = Initial value of resource, related to economic assessment V 1 = Value after fire, related to fire behavior. n: number of years to regenerate, related to ecological conditions and fire behavior. r: Discount rate (2%). Assumed Estimated

8 Recovery Click to time edit (n) Master title style Chuvieco et al., 2014, IJWF Rodrigues et al., 2014, PPG

9 Ecosystem Click to edit services Master title style Recreation. Wood / Firewood resources. Livestock and agriculture. Non-wood resources: Hunting, Fungi, Pine, Nuts, Cork, etc. Biodiversity. Water resources. Carbon markets.

10 Ecosystem Click to edit services Master title style Roman and Azqueta, 2012

11 Global Click fire to vulnerability edit Master title style Chuvieco et al, GEB, 2014

12 Global Click fire to vulnerability edit Master title style Chuvieco et al, GEB, 2014

13 Spatial Click units: to edit ecoregions Master title style 825 tipified Terrestrial Ecoregions Source: Olson et al., 2001

14 Biodiversity Click to edit richness Master title style Strict endemics (END) Σ amphibians, reptiles, mammals and avian in that ecoregion. Total richness (TR): Σ amphibians, reptiles, mammals and avian in that ecoregion Average primary productivity (NPP).

15 Biodiversity Click to edit richness Master (Ecoregion) title style VARIABLE NAME VARIABLE RANGE (inside every ecoregion) Assigned values END 0-97 (units: nº species) Values between 1 TR (units: nº species) to 4 following natural breaks NPP (gr C)

16 Conservation Click to edit status Master title style Conservation status: Σ (PAC, PA, IFL) Priority areas for global conservation (PAC) (Global200 + Hot-spots of biodiversity: Myers et al. 2000) Degree of protection (PA): world database of protected areas from the UNEP. Intactness (IFL) (Potapov et al. (2008).

17 Habitat Click to fragmentation edit Master title style Global patterns of forest fragmentation GUIDOS software, JRC Fragmentation categories Source: Vogt, Riitters, et al. 2007,

18 Habitat Click to fragmentation edit Master title style MSPA categories Definition Core Pixels within the forest matrix 2 Bridge Pixels joining two forest patches 1.5 Perforation Borders of non-forest islands within the forest matrix 1.3 Edge Borders of the forest matrix 1.3 Loop Pixels joining the same forest patch 1.2 Branch Forest corridor linked to a forest patch 1.2 Islet Forest islands outside the forest matrix 1.1 Background Non-forested areas 1 w j

19 19 Ecological Click to Regeneration edit Master title Delay style Soil Erosion Potencial: Soils. Topography. Rainfall Fire adaptation: Potential vegetation (Orchidee) Actual vegetation (Globcover2005). Fire frequency (MODIS Hotspots).

20 20 Soil Click Erosion to edit Potential Master title style Slope factor Soil erodibility & Rainfall erosivity factor Level of protection Low Moderate High Very gentle Fully protected Low Moderate Moderate Gentle Fully protected Low Moderate Moderate Steep Fully protected Moderate Moderate High Very steep Fully protected Moderate High High Very gentle Not-fully protected Low Moderate Moderate Gentle Not-fully protected Moderate Moderate High Steep Not-fully protected Moderate High High Very steep Not-fully protected Moderate High High

21 21 Fire Click adaptation to edit Master title style Vegetated regions (density >60%): If current vegetation cover simulated: Low fire occurrence = Fire independent: highly vulnerable. High fire activity = Partially adapted If current vegetation cover simulated, fire dependent ecosystems.

22 Loss Click of Ecological to edit Master Values title (LEV) style Ecological values Ecological Regeneration Delay Low Moderate High Very High Low Low Low Moderate High Moderate Low Moderate High Very high High Moderate High Very high Very high

23 Loss Click of Ecological to edit Master Values title style Chuvieco et al., 2014, GEB

24 Analysis Click of to global edit fire Master vulnerability title style Chuvieco et al, GEB, in press

25 Present Click to Marginal edit Master loss (PML) title style PPPPPP = MMMM 1 (1 rr) log nn rr Favorable conditions: n = 20 for forest, n= 5 for shrublands Other conditions: 1.2 * FC for moderate ERD 1.4 * FC for low ERD 1.5 * FC for very low ERD.

26 Present Click to Marginal edit Master loss (PML) title style

27 Analysis Click of to global edit fire Master vulnerability title style Chuvieco et al, GEB, in press

28 Value Click of to houses edit Master title style LH = n i=1 ML i WUI i BD d n is the number of different countries in each cell; MLi is the marginal loss by country I WUIi is the area of the WUI corresponding to each county in each cell; BD is the Built Density, an estimation of the proportion of built area within a cell. This value was fixed to 0.3, following CORINE d is a correction factor corresponding to population density of the cell. Population Density Ranges (persons/km 2 ) > Correction factor (d)

29 Value Click of to houses edit Master title style

30 Final Click vulnerability to edit Master title style Ecological Values Socio-economic values Low Moderate High Very High Low Low Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High High High Very High Very High

31 Final Click vulnerability to edit Master title style