Canadian Forest Carbon Budgets at Multi-Scales:

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1 Canadian Forest Carbon Budgets at Multi-Scales: Dr. Changhui Peng, Uinversity of Quebec at Montreal Drs. Mike Apps and Werner Kurz, Canadian Forest Service Dr. Jing M. Chen, University of Toronto U of T

2 OUTLINE Canada s Forests and C Accounting System Canadian Forest Carbon Budgets Modelling Approaches Data sources Model validation and comparison Future Challenges

3 - 10% of global forests - 25% of global boreal forests

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7 C Accounting at Four Spatial Scales nsures consistency across spatial scales ses best available data for each region Operational Stand-level Regional or Provincial National

8 Modelling Approach: 1. Forest Inventory Based Forest Carbon Accounting: CBM-CFS (Kurz and Apps, 1992, 1999) 2. Integrated Process-Model and Remote Sensing: InTEC (J. Chen et al, 2000, 2003) 3. Hybrid Model Simulation at Stand and Landscape Levels: TRIPLEX (Peng et al, 2002; Zhou et al. 2004)

9 CBM-CFS2: Carbon Budget Model of Canadian Forest Sector CBM-CFS First national scale forest analysis Data Driven: Forest Inventory (NFBI and CanFI) Soil Data Disturbances Fire Insects Harvests (Kurz, Apps, Webb, McNamee; 1992, Kurz and Apps, 1999)

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15 Key steps in satellite-based estimation of carbon balance (NBP) Land Cover Type (annual) Evapotranspiraton (ET) (daily) Spectral Reflectance Algorithms Leaf Area Index (LAI) (10 days) Net Primary Productivity (NPP) (daily) Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) (annual) Net Biome Productivity (NBP) (annual) Fire Scar Age (annual) Meteorological data (daily), soil and biomass data (long term) Disturbances (fire, insect, harvest) (annual) Changes in atmosphere, Climate (annual) (J. Chen et al, 2003)

16 Additional datasets used Remotely sensed land cover and LAI maps (1 km resolution) Modeled and partially validated NPP map for 1994 (1 km resolution) Gridded climate data ( , U. East Anglia, 0.5, monthly means) Soil Landscape of Canada (texture, total carbon, ~10k polygons) Nitrogen deposition data ( , 12 stations, CAPMoN) Tower flux data at 4 locations

17 Role of Disturbance NBP = NEP Fires Harvest Insect-induced Mortality NBP: Net Biome Productivity

18 The variation of NPP with age (Black Spruce in Ontario) NPP age = 156 *[1 + (2.0 * ( ) ]/ e age 25 Site index 11m,measured NPP ( g Cm -2 ) m,simulated 8m,measured 8m,simulated 5m,measured 5m,simulated age (yr.) Role of Forest Age (Chen et al. 2002)

19 Ontario s Forest Age-class Structure (1990) SA Boreal Region (BO) BO CT Area (million ha) MT Age (year) CBM-CFS2 Area (thousand ha) Moderate Temperate Region (MT) Area (million ha) Cool Temperate Region (CT) Age (year) Age (year) (Peng et al. 2000)

20 Ontario's Forest Age ( ) Age (year) Boreal Cool Temperate Moderate Temperate CBM-CFS Time (year) (Peng et al. 2000)

21 Model Validation and Comparison Testing model simulations against: - Forest Growth &Yield plots - Forest Inventory - Soil measurements - Eddy Covariance Flux Towers

22 Comparison of Averaged Simulations and Observations - Aboveground Biomass (Hegyi, 1972) TRIPLEX Simulations (Peng et al. 2002)

23 Comparison of modeled total aboveground biomass carbon with forest inventory Average aboveground biomass carbon in different types of Canada's forests Modeled (kgc/m 2 ) y = 1.393x R 2 = Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Deciduous Broadleaf Forest Mixed Forest Burns 1 Open Land Inventory (kgc/m 2 ) (J. Chen et al. 2003)

24 Comparison of modeled total soil organic carbon with polygon data from Soil Landscape of Canada Average dead organic carbon in different types of Canada's forests 30 y = x R 2 = Modeled (kgc/m 2 ) Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Deciduous Broadleaf Forest Mixed Forest Burns Open Land Soil Landscape of Canada (kgc/m 2 ) (J. Chen et al. 2003)

25 Historical Variation in NEP 121-year old black spruce stand, Saskatchewan ( o N, o W) NEP (gc/m 2 ) No change (baseline) climate All effects Measured Year Tower data source: Paul Jarvis of U Edinburgh and Andy Black of UBC (J. Chen et al. 2003)

26 Comparison of simulated NPP with Remoted Sensing based estimation of NPP at Landscape Level (Lake Abitibi Model Forest) a) TRIPLEX Simulation Zhou et al, 2004) b) Estimation based on emote sensing (Liu et al.2002) Kappa Statistic: K=0.6 Good agreement if 0.55<K<0.70)

27 300 Comparison of three sets of NBP results All Canada's Forests, 1901 to NBP (Tg C/y) Spatially Explicit Modeling (Chen et al., 2002b) Spatially Aggregated Modeling (Chen et al., 2000b) CBM-CFS (Kurz and Apps,1999) year (J. Chen et al. 2003)

28 What do the changes in disturbances in Canada s forests Affect Carbon Balance? 10 Note apparent increase after 1970 Area (Million ha) ClearCut Fire Insects Total

29 Challenges for Science Weaknesses in Scientific Understanding: Allocation of C in plant tissues Nutrient feedback CO 2 fertilization at ecosystem scale - is it real? important? Projecting changes in disturbance regimes (fire, insect, harvesting, ice damage ) Peatland carbon dynamics etc.

30 Scientific Challenges Quantifying land-use change at 1 ha resolution. Regional parameter databases and validation. Accounting for forest management impacts. Estimating C stock changes in forested wetlands. Estimating N 2 O and CH 4 emissions. Incorporating inter-annual variability and long-term climate effects. Identifying, quantifying and reducing uncertainty.

31 (Kurz and Apps, 2004)

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