Strategy and Recommendations. Strategy and Recommendations
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1 Strategy and Recommendations C H A P T E R 6 6 Strategy and Recommendations 33
2 Bangsamoro Development Plan 6Strategy and Recommendations A. Overall Goal of the Bangsamoro Development Plan The immediate objective of the BDP is to provide an immediate short- and medium-term vision and strategy for the recovery and development of the Bangsamoro based on its unique needs, anchored in justice and building a peaceful and prosperous society emerging from long years of conflict. The BDP will build the foundations of a functioning just economy that will strengthen institutions and promote greater access to social services, jobs and economic opportunities, and citizen security, justice and the rule of law. In shifting the economy toward high value production that improves overall welfare, promoting inclusive and sustainable growth, ensuring a proper and more transparent and accountable distribution of public funds, and establishing a peaceful and stable society, the BDP will help the Bangsamoro break the vicious cycle of injustice, insecurity, and underdevelopment, fostering a virtuous cycle where sustained poverty reduction can take hold (see Figure 7). Figure 7: Transforming a Vicious Cycle to a Virtuous Cycle Source: BDP-CPT 34
3 Strategy and Recommendations C H A P T E R 6 B. Strategic Interventions The BDP must address these challenges through an integrated approach of transforming the institutions of the state and restoring confidence among citizens to build a society that is resilient to external stresses. However, with limited resources, priority socioeconomic interventions must be tailored to the local environment and focused on areas most prone to social exclusion, poverty, and violence. C. Priorities Table 10 shows the sequencing of projects/activities envisaged during the transition period of Phase I and into the Bangsamoro Government in Phase II. Further details of the recommended list of projects under the various sectoral concerns are discussed in the next chapter. As a general principle, priority programs and projects are selected on the basis of their ability to restore confidence in the peace process and build inclusive enough coalitions to support reform. 1. Investments for Social Justice. Increasing access to basic services and employment and livelihood opportunities are necessary to promote social justice. Where poverty incidence is low but the number of poor people is high (e.g., in densely populated urbanized communities), programs must be tailored to target those most in need. Where poverty incidence is high but the number of poor people is low (e.g., in rural areas), programs must benefit the whole community. 2. Support to Economic Growth and Production. Where there is potential for improving productivity or expanding capacity, particularly in small-scale enterprise farming and fishing, programs must open up opportunities for growth. 3. Support to Areas Vulnerable to Conflict and Environmental Shocks. In areas prone to conflict or environmental shocks, or both, programs must address past or current injustice while building a socially cohesive resilient community. In particular, early recovery and humanitarian support is essential. To maximize the benefits, build synergies across the region, and foster a strong common growth objective, interventions will further be designed to ensure points of geographic convergence across sectoral interventions. With a strong complementary institutional reform and strengthening program, the BDP will help lift the Bangsamoro to higher sustained growth in the medium and the long term. Programs that generate jobs and improve the quality of life will be a top priority. Those that open up access to culturally important initiatives, such as Islamic financing, halal industry development, support for madaris, and cultural activities to record and celebrate the rich history of the Bangsamoro people will also be given priority in the initial period. Finally, the Bangsamoro will embark on programs that will put the region on track to build legitimate institutions those with technical capacity and accountability that will sustain the gains of the FAB and CAB. D. Potential Impacts The reduction of violence in ARMM in recent years, combined with regional governance reforms and increased investment from the Central Government, development partners, and the private sector, resulted in economic growth of 3.6% in During the transition to the Bangsamoro Government, the BDP must, at a minimum, be able to preserve, sustain, and improve these gains. But higher economic growth is necessary to catch up with the rest of the nation. Central Government spending during the transition period (2015 to mid-2016) will be a catalyst for growth. Targeted spending toward activities and programs that accrue to the local economy, particularly in terms of inducing local employment, would imply additional 35
4 Bangsamoro Development Plan Table 10: Sequencing of Recommended Projects/Activities for Phases I and II of the Transition Period Theme Phase I Phase II Economy and Livelihood Infrastructure Social Services Environment and Natural Resources Culture and Identity Provide basic agricultural assistance to farmers and fishers, including women, to ensure food security Provide financial support to develop small-scale agricultural and fishery industries Develop organic farming industry Conduct analytical and feasibility studies to promote agribusiness investments, and studies to create integrated development zones Develop Polloc Port and other export processing zones as manufacturing and trading hubs Promote Bangsamoro as a regional trade partner Develop economic policies Promote and establish Islamic microfinance institutions Provide infrastructure projects along key value-chains to improve economic growth and increase productivity, improve delivery of basic education, and health services, etc. Provide key energy projects Conduct feasibility and detailed engineering studies of strategic infrastructure projects Write Bangsamoro history textbooks (traditions, culture, governance, and values transformation) Strengthen provision of basic health services (immunization, nutrition, reproductive healthcare, mobile clinics, etc.) and medical missions Improve basic education (madrasah, adult education, IP education, OSY programs, scholarships) and technical vocational education Continue/intensify CCT and CDD programs Establish social safety nets and protection mechanisms for the most vulnerable groups Conduct analytical studies in support of long-term improvement of social service delivery The institutionalization of formal and informal peace education-peacebuilding strategy Conduct analytical and feasibility studies to establish Shari ah-compliant insurance system Implement sustainable forest management and reforestation, reef and mangrove rehabilitation projects in selected sites, recruit forest and sea guards, etc. Conduct capacity-building training programs on DRRM in selected communities Construct public museums, libraries, historical markers, and establishment of Bangsamoro public cemeteries (maqaabir al- aam) Establish Bangsamoro language, orthography, cultural and Da wah centers Provide financing for youth and interfaith activities, and grants for textbook development to promote a shared understanding of the Bangsamoro struggle Promote culture-sensitive and gender-responsive health approaches Promote tourism development with cultural identity Accelerate provision of agricultural services and goods to farmers and fishers Continue development of organic farming industry Promote growth of the halal food industry Strengthen Islamic financial institutions Implement recommendations of analytical/feasibility studies Complete key infrastructure projects started in Phase I Implement infrastructure projects with completed feasibility and detailed engineering studies Develop curriculum (including the integration of Bangsamoro history for elementary and secondary levels) Conduct propagation (Da wah) on Bangsamoro values formation Accelerate provision of basic education, health services, and sanitation including reproductive health Strengthen and sustain social safety nets and protection mechanisms established for vulnerable groups Implement recommendations to improve provision of basic education, health services, and sanitation Establish centers for women Implement recommendations of analytical/ feasibility studies Accelerate implementation of activities on conservation and rehabilitation Full mobilization and equipping of forest and sea guards Implement institutional arrangements and measures critical for a successful DRRM response in the selected communities Attain full operation of public museums, libraries, language/cultural centers, and other programs and projects started in Phase I Continue support for youth leadership trainings, interfaith activities and similar peace efforts Strengthen culturally appropriate health systems and approaches Establish cultural centers for women 36
5 Strategy and Recommendations C H A P T E R 6 Theme Phase I Phase II Governance, Justice, and Security Develop a Results-based Monitoring and Evaluation (RbM&E) system Establish technical assistance facilities for the Bangsamoro, capacity-building of Bangsamoro Government senior and mid-level officials of BTA transition team Establish satellite offices of key national and regional government agencies in the island provinces Implement CSO capacity-building programs on monitoring service delivery in the Bangsamoro, Bangsamoro Open Data Portal, regular polling on justice, security and jobs Establish judicial capacity-building program for judges and lawyers, increase access to legal aid for the poor Strengthen mediation and reconciliation capacity of community level justice systems (especially on land conflict and rido) Conduct analytical studies to improve good governance, justice delivery, and security Institute and implement RbM&E into the government system Continue implementation of capacity-building programs for the Bangsamoro Government s senior and mid-level officials Operational national and regional satellite offices Implement findings and recommendations of analytical and feasibility studies undertaken in Phase I concession that could improve rapid national economic growth. Proposed programs during the transition are projected to reach PhP 225 billion. Around PhP 116 billion is already covered by planned activities of various government agencies for the period from 2014 to The financing gap of PhP 109 billion corresponds to proposed projects that are not included in programmed budget of the government for 2014 to This allotment of funds for various programs will have significant impact on economic growth. implementation arrangements are in place, and therefore fund-releases and implementation can proceed without delay. Figure 8 presents the best-case (high) scenario and alternative scenarios (low and medium) using different levels of utilization: 19% for the low scenario and 38% for the medium scenario. Projected growth under the low scenario is 4.1% and 5.5% in 2015 and 2016, respectively; and under the medium scenario is 6.5% to 8.7%. Figure 8: GRDP Growth Scenarios in Bangsamoro ( ) If inflation (which averaged around 6.5% between 2007 and 2013) remains stable, economic growth is projected to reach as high as 9.7% in 2015 and 12.8% in This is far above the projected growth at the baseline (i.e., following historical trends) which is at 1.9% in 2015 and 2.4% in This best-case scenario, however, assumes a high absorptive capacity and at least a 63% utilization rate of funds during the transition. In addition, this assumes that detailed project plans are in place, projects have been approved in principle, contracting out of projects proceeds smoothly, Source: NEDA and BDP-CPT estimate 37
6 Bangsamoro Development Plan The sources of growth during the transition will rely heavily on government spending, which cannot be sustained in the medium term. Instead, the gains from improved agriculture practices, infrastructure, and public service should prompt the private sector to participate more vigorously in the regional economy. Building a just economy in the Bangsamoro through the targeted interventions identified in this plan will deliver the necessary conditions for the Bangsamoro to move to a higher growth path similar to that observed in Mindanao and the rest of the country in recent years. An average annual growth rate of 6% to 8% in 2017 to 2022 would help significantly in lifting communities out of poverty. Sustained economic growth could reduce poverty incidence to 40% to 42% in 2022 from 55.8% in This would translate to 300,000 people rising from poverty. High priority placed on wide delivery of basic social services is expected to improve people s capabilities and household welfare. An examination of the post-conflict situation reveals that the most important development constraint specific to the region is the level of its human resources and human capital. This is borne out, among others, by the extraordinarily low levels of education and health and other human-development indicators. Table 11 presents the targeted improvements on selected human development indicators by the end of the transition and the medium term. Table 11: Targets on Human Capital and Household Welfare Participation rate in elementary school National (baseline) 95.2% (2012 and 2013) Participation rate in high school 64.6% ( ) Inactive youth (between 15 and 25 years old, not in school or labor force) Adults with at least elementary education Households with access to safe water Households with access to sanitary toilets 17% Immunized children of age at 1 year 69% (2013) Population with health insurance coverage Households with access to electricity ARMM (baseline) 70.4% (2013 and 2014) 26.1% ( ) 23% 83.4% (2010) 54% (2010) 79.9% 36.6% 87.2% 22.5% 29% (2013) 63.0% (2013) 44.2% (2013) 88.8% 58.1% (FIES 2012) Transition (end 2016) Medium Term (end 2022) 75 to 80% 80 to 85% 35 to 40% 55 to 60% 18 to 20% 15 to 17% 56 to 58% 72 to 74% 50 to 60% 60 to 70% 30 to 40% 50 to 60% 40 to 45% 60 to 70% 50 to 55% 60 to 70% 60 to 65% 70 to 75% Source: NEDA and BDP-CPT estimate, using data from DepEd-ARMM (EBEIS) and PSA-LFS (2013), CPH (2010), and NDHS (2013) 38
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