Narration: This presentation is divided into four sections. It looks first at climate change and adaptation for natural forests, and then for

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2 Narration: This presentation is an overview of the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. You will learn about the impacts of climate change on natural forests and tree plantations. You will also learn about the adaptation options for natural and planted forests, as well as agroforests. This presentation is an overview of the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. You will learn about the impacts of climate change on natural forests and tree plantations. You will also learn about the adaptation options for natural and planted forests, as well as agroforests. 2

3 Narration: This presentation is divided into four sections. It looks first at climate change and adaptation for natural forests, and then for production forests and plantations. The final section considers autonomous adaptation strategies. 3

4 Narration: Forests are among the most valuable ecosystems in the world. Although forests cover less than 10 per cent of the earth s land area, they harbour the largest terrestrial reservoir of biological diversity. More than 50 per cent of known plant species grow in forests. They are also vital in climate regulation because they store vast amounts of carbon. More than 800 million people rely on forests for fuel, food and income. Forests are among the most valuable ecosystems in the world. Although forests cover less than 10 per cent of the earth s land area, they harbour the largest terrestrial reservoir of biological diversity, from the gene level to the habitat level. For example, more than 50 per cent of known plant species grow in forests. They are also vital in climate regulation because they store vast amounts of carbon in biomass, necromass (dead organisms), and soil. More than 800 million people rely on forests for fuel, food and income. 4

5 Narration: Tropical forests lie between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. Despite their recognised importance, tropical forests are undergoing rapid land use changes, including deforestation as a result of agricultural expansion, commercial logging, plantation development, mining, industry, urbanisation and road building. This trend has adverse impacts on biodiversity and water resources, as well as on rural livelihoods and climate regulation. The areas in yellow in South America and Southeast Asia are protected areas that are threatened by deforestation. Tropical forests lie between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. Despite their recognised importance, tropical forests are undergoing rapid land use changes, including deforestation as a result of agricultural expansion, commercial logging, plantation development, mining, industry, urbanisation and road building. This trend has adverse impacts on biodiversity and water resources, as well as on rural livelihoods and climate regulation. The areas in yellow in South America and Southeast Asia are protected areas that are threatened by deforestation. Sources: Global Land-Cover 2000 map; Mayaux et al.,

6 Narration: Forest ecosystems cover about 30 per cent of all the world s land area. Most of these forest ecosystems are in the tropics with the rest in the temperate and boreal zones. These forests, especially those in the boreal zones are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the long run. However, they may become adversely affected much sooner if disturbance regimes exceed critical thresholds, partly due to climate change. Forest ecosystems cover about 30 per cent of all land area of the world. Most of theseforest ecosystems are in the tropics with the rest in the temperate and boreal zones. These forests, especially those in the boreal zones are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the long run. However, they may become adversely affected much sooner if disturbance regimes exceed critical thresholds, partly due to climate change. Source: Fischlin

7 Narration: Most simulation models show that climate change will result in significant forest die back. This will lead to loss of key ecosystem services such as soil and water conservation. These models also show that there will be losses of biodiversity in tropical forest diversity hotspots such as north-eastern Amazonia and tropical Africa. Most simulation models show that climate change will result in significant forest die back. This will lead to loss of key ecosystem services such as soil and water conservation. These models also show that there will be losses of biodiversity in tropical forest diversity hotspots such as north-eastern Amazonia and tropical Africa. 7

8 Narration: This figure shows the projected changes in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 as simulated by global vegetation models. The changes are considerable and are only shown if they exceed 20 per cent of the area of a simulated grid cell. The numbers represent vegetation changes. As you can see, some cover types may increase in area coverage due to climate change, but many may suffer detrimental impacts. This figure shows the projected changes in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 as simulated by global vegetation models using the climate scenario HadCM3 A2. The changes are considerable and are only shown if they exceed 20 per cent of the area of a simulated grid cell. The numbers represent vegetation changes. As you can see, some cover types may increase in area coverage due to climate change (vegetation changes 1 and 2), but many may suffer detrimental impacts (vegetation change 6), notably by strong warming and its effects on water availability. Source: Fischlin,

9 Narration: This figure shows the projected changes in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 as simulated by global vegetation models. Changes are considered appreciable and are only shown if they exceed 20 per cent of the area of a simulated grid cell. As you can see, some cover types may increase in area coverage due to climate change, but many may suffer detrimental impacts. This figure shows the projected changes in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 as simulated by global vegetation models using the climate scenario ECHAM5 B1. Changes are considered appreciable and are only shown if they exceed 20 per cent of the area of a simulated grid cell. Some cover types may increase in area coverage due to climate change (vegetation changes 1 and 2), but many may be impacted detrimentally (vegetation change 6), notably by strong warming and its effects on water availability. Source: Fischlin,

10 Narration: Here is an example from the Philippines. The Holdridge life zones are an ecological classification system based on the three climatic factors of precipitation, heat and humidity. Holdridge defined a life zone as a group of associations related through the effects of these three major climatic factors. This figure shows the potential life zones in the Philippines without any human influence. Here is an example from the Philippines. The Holdridge life zones are an ecological classification system based on the three climatic factors: precipitation, heat (biotemperature) and humidity (potential evapotranspiration ratio). Holdridge defined a life zone as a group of associations related through the effects of these three major climatic factors. This figure shows the potential life zones in the Philippines without any human influence. Source: Lasco et al.,

11 Narration: This diagram shows potential changes in life zones under a 25 per cent increase in rainfall and increasing temperatures. Note the disappearance of the dry forest types. This diagram shows potential changes in life zones under a 25 per cent increase in rainfall and increasing temperatures. Note the disappearance of the dry forest types. Source: Lasco et al.,

12 Narration: Productivity may increase in some forest types as a result of CO2 fertilisation, warming in air temperatures and increases in rainfall. However, adverse impacts are also possible and are highly uncertain at local levels. Productivity may increase in some forest types as a result of CO2 fertilisation, warming in air temperatures and increases in rainfall. However, adverse impacts are also possible and are highly uncertain at local levels. 12

13 Narration: In this section you will learn about adaptation options for natural forests. Because the specific impacts of climate change are still uncertain, the best approach is to build up the resilience of natural systems. An ecosystems approach as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity is a strategy for management of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. Considering the uncertainty of climate change, no regrets decisions are preferable. In this section you will learn about adaptation options for natural forests. Because the specific impacts of climate change are still uncertain, the best approach is to build up the resilience of natural systems. An ecosystems approach as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity is a strategy for management of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. Considering the uncertainty of climate change, no regrets decisions are preferable. 13

14 Narration: Expanding reserve systems or protected areas is one approach to climate change adaptation. Many countries have a network of protected areas. A primary adaptation strategy to climate change and current climate variability is to reduce and manage the other stresses on species and ecosystems, such as habitat fragmentation, destruction and over-exploitation. Expanding reserve systems or protected areas is one approach to climate change adaptation. Many countries have a network of protected areas. Protected areas may be designed considering long-term shifts in plant and animal distributions and natural disturbance regimes. A primary adaptation strategy to climate change and current climate variability is to reduce and manage the other stresses on species and ecosystems, such as habitat fragmentation, destruction and over-exploitation. 14

15 Narration: In this section you will learn about the impacts of climate change on production forests and tree farms. This slide provides an overview of the extent of planted forests and their importance globally. You can see that the area for tree plantations and production is rapidly increase at 2.5 million hectares each year. In this section you will learn about the impacts of climate change on production forests and tree farms. This slide provides an overview of the extent of planted forests and their importance globally. You can see that the area for tree plantations and production is rapidly increase at 2.5 million hectares each year. 15

16 Narration: Modeling studies predict increased global timber production from natural and planted trees due to climate change. Climate change can increase global timber production through location changes of forests and higher growth rates, especially when the positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration are taken into consideration. However, regional production will exhibit large variability; some areas will increase production while others will decline. There is little information about the impacts at the tree farm level. Modeling studies predict increased global timber production from natural and planted trees due to climate change. Climate change can increase global timber production through location changes of forests and higher growth rates, especially when the positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration are taken into consideration. However, regional production will exhibit large variability; some areas will increase production while others will decline. There is little information about the impacts at the tree farm level. 16

17 Narration: There is still uncertainty about the effects of CO2 enrichment on forest production. CO2 enrichment effects may be overestimated in current models. New studies suggest that direct CO2 effects on tree growth may be revised to lower values than previously assumed in forest growth models. However, most of the major forestry models do not include key ecological processes. There is still uncertainty about the effects of CO2 enrichment on forest production. CO2 enrichment effects may be overestimated in current models. New studies suggest that direct CO2 effects on tree growth may be revised to lower values than previously assumed in forest growth models. However, most of the major forestry models do not include key ecological processes. 17

18 Narration: This slide summarises the results of a number of studies on the impacts of climate change on forest production. In some parts of the world, production will increase. In other parts of the world, production will decrease. This slide summarises the results of a number of studies on the impacts of climate change on forest production. In some parts of the world, production will increase. In other parts of the world, production will decrease. Source: Fischlin,

19 Narration: There are additional factors that are not included in existing models such as fires, insects, diseases and extreme weather events. There is evidence of both regional increase and decrease in fire activity with some of the changes linked to climate change. The composition and product of forests are shaped by fire frequency, size, intensity and seasonality. There are other factors that are not included in existing models such as fires, insects, diseases and extreme weather events. For example, there is evidence of both regional increase and decrease in fire activity with some of the changes linked to climate change. The composition and product of forests are shaped by fire frequency, size, intensity and seasonality. 19

20 Narration: Climate change will interact with fuel type, ignition source and topography in determining future damage risks to the forest industry due to fires. Current modeling studies suggest that increased temperatures and longer growing seasons will elevate fire risk because of increased dryness. Climate change can shift the current boundaries of insects and pathogens and modify tree physiology and tree defense. Modeling of climate change impacts on insect and pathogen outbreaks remains limited. Climate change will interact with fuel type, ignition source and topography in determining future damage risks to the forest industry due to fire. Current modeling studies suggest that increased temperatures and longer growing seasons will elevate fire risk because of increased dryness. Climate change can shift the current boundaries of insects and pathogens and modify tree physiology and tree defense. Modeling of climate change impacts on insect and pathogen outbreaks remains limited. 20

21 Narration: In this section you will learn about autonomous adaptation strategies for planted forests. Autonomous adaptation refers to adaptation that is not a conscious response to climatic changes or events, but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Autonomous adaptation is also referred to as spontaneous adaptation. Examples include changes in management intensity, the hardwood/softwood species mix, timber growth and harvesting patterns within and between regions, and rotation periods. In this section you will learn about autonomous adaptation strategies for planted forests. Autonomous adaptation refers to adaptation that is not a conscious response to climatic changes or events, but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Autonomous adaptation is also referred to as spontaneous adaptation. Examples include changes in management intensity, the hardwood/softwood species mix, timber growth and harvesting patterns within and between regions, and rotation periods. 21

22 Narration: Here are some examples of autonomous adaptation strategies from Bangladesh, Botswana and Grenda. You will note that the trees provide multiple benefits. Here are some examples of autonomous adaptation strategies from Bangladesh, Botswana and Grenda. You will note that the trees provide multiple benefits. Source: Roberts et al.,

23 Narration: Other examples of autonomous adaptation strategies include: Salvaging dead timber by collecting them so they are used rather than just rotting in the forest Shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions Landscape planning to minimise fire and insect damage Adjusting processing mills to altered wood size and quality Adjusting fire management systems to cope with new risks Other examples of autonomous adaptation strategies include: Salvaging dead timber by collecting them so they are used rather than just rotting in the forest Shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions Landscape planning to minimise fire and insect damage Adjusting processing mills to altered wood size and quality Adjusting fire management systems to cope with new risks 23

24 Narration: Adaptation strategies to control insect damage in planted forests include: Prescribed burning to reduce forest vulnerability to increased insect outbreaks Non-chemical insect control, for example using baculoviruses Adjusting harvesting schedules, so that those stands most vulnerable to insect defoliation can be harvested preferentially Under moderate climate changes, these proactive measures may potentially reduce the negative economic consequences of climate change Large areas of forests, especially in developing countries, receive minimal management, which limits adaptation opportunities Adaptation strategies to control insect damage in planted forests include: Prescribed burning to reduce forest vulnerability to increased insect outbreaks Non-chemical insect control, for example using baculoviruses Adjusting harvesting schedules, so that those stands most vulnerable to insect defoliation can be harvested preferentially Under moderate climate changes, these proactive measures may potentially reduce the negative economic consequences of climate change Large areas of forests, especially in developing countries, receive minimal management,which limits adaptation opportunities 24

25 Narration: While autonomous adaptations have the potential to avoid considerable damage from climate changes, there has been little evaluation of how effective and widely adopted these adaptations may actually be. While autonomous adaptations have the potential to avoid considerable damage from climate changes, there has been little evaluation of how effective and widely adopted these adaptations may actually be. Factors to consider include: The complex nature of farm decision-making in which there are many non-climatic issues to manage The diversity of responses within and between regions in part due to possible differences in climate change The difficulties that might arise if climate changes are non-linear or increase climate extremes The possible interactions between different adaptation options and economic, institutional and cultural barriers to change 25

26 Narration: Autonomous adaptations may not be fully adequate for coping with climate change, which means deliberate, planned measures are necessary. There are several options for planned adaptation. Adaptation can be the result of a deliberate policy decision. Many options for policybased adaptation to climate change have been identified for forests. Autonomous adaptations may not be fully adequate for coping with climate change, which means deliberate, planned measures are necessary. There are several options for planned adaptation. Adaptation can be the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state. Many options for policy-based adaptation to climate change have been identified for forests. These can either involve adaptation activities such as developing infrastructure or building the capacity to adapt in the broader user community and institutions, often by changing the decision making environment under which management-level, autonomous adaptation activities occur 26

27 Narration: Community-based forest management enhances the resilience of natural ecosystems through forest protection and the establishment of new forests while enhancing soil conservation. In the Philippines, the national strategy for forest land management is communitybased forest management. About 6 million hectares of forest lands are under some form of community forest management. About 690,000 households are involved in the community-based forest management programme, which directly benefits about 4 million people. Community-based forest management enhances the resilience of natural ecosystems through forest protection and the establishment of new forests while enhancing soil conservation. In the Philippines, the national strategy for forest land management is community-based forest management. About 6 million hectares of forest lands are under some form of community forest management. Of these, about 4.7 million hectares have been issued with land tenure instruments including around 1.57 million hectares issued with a Community Based Forest Management Agreement (CBFMA). About 690,000 households are involved in the communitybased forest management programme, which directly benefits about 4 million people. 27

28 Narration: Expansion and better management of protected areas will enhance the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. Autonomous and planned adaptations ensure wood supply. An example of planned adaptation is community-based forest management. Expansion and better management of protected areas will enhance the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. Autonomous and planned adaptations ensure wood supply. An example of planned adaptation is community-based forest management. 28

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