Per Capita Consumption 2013

Transcription

1 Issue 1, October 2013 Per Capita Consumption 2013 Country-Specific Analysis Including Trade, Natural and Manmade Fiber Output, Spunbonds, Cotton Inventory Changes and Worn Clothing Trade

2 Andreas W. Engelhardt General Manager The Fiber Year GmbH Speicher, Switzerland Dear Readers, This new statistical report complements the annual textile yearbook The Fiber Year and provides more detailed data for the textile and clothing consumption in 115 countries. This approach appears to be essential as population growth and disposable incomes, both generally accepted major factors for future textile demand, will be subject to decisive changes. A slowing momentum in the both variables is expected for countries and regions with at present above average textile demand. Of course, further factors have an impact on textile consumption and need to be considered, estimated and calculated. An incomplete enumeration would include aspects like e.g. raw material availability, spirit of the time, shortening fashion cycles, climate change, regional weather conditions, sustainability and recycling. It goes without saying that an increased government spending for infrastructure and mobility will also affect future consumption like, for example, a rising consumer demand for hygiene and medical articles due to higher incomes and changing consumer behavior. Those soft factors necessitate a very specific adjustment to local circumstances. Thus, understanding the history of textile dynamics is a basic prerequisite to draw conclusions for the future development. Expressed in simplified terms, local availability of yarn and fiber volumes together with trade flows may result in the desired size. Unfortunately, trade figures often are inconsistent. For that reason, more than 3,000 trade chapters on four-digit level have been analyzed by unit values. In case of missing quantities or dubious figures, estimates have been included based on regional comparisons. On top of that, the often underestimated and neglected volume of worn clothing and articles at present around 4 million tonnes has been integrated. It represents the majority of textile consumption in a number of countries. Second hand clothing is widespread in Africa and helps people in low-income countries to save money. On the other hand, it is a risk for the struggling textile industry. In Kenya, for example, buying used clothing is called mitumba and quite popular. More than a third of the annual consumption has been met by mitumba. Although the consumption level of some countries, in particular in the Asian region, is surprisingly high any necessary adjustments have not been made. A plausible explanation for this size may arise from numerous complaints around the world about unofficial trade. For this matter of fact there is naturally no statistical information available. An annual update of this survey is not planned due to enormous expenditure of time to create it. Nevertheless, I do hope this new report delivers you plenty of new insights. Yours sincerely,

3 Table of Contents: page page Executive Summary. 7 Sources, footnotes and definitions.. 15 Methodology.. 17 Regions and countries covered 18 Africa 19 Regional summary and outlook. 20 Algeria 34 Angola 37 Benin 40 Burkina Faso.. 43 Burundi 46 Cameroon. 49 Congo 52 Cote d'ivoire. 55 Egypt.. 58 Ethiopia.. 61 Ghana 64 Kenya. 67 Madagascar 70 Malawi. 73 Morocco 76 Mozambique. 79 Namibia.. 82 Niger Nigeria 88 Senegal.. 91 South Africa 94 Sudan 97 Tanzania 100 Tunisia. 103 Uganda 106 Zambia. 109 Zimbabwe 112 Americas 115 Regional summary and outlook 116 Argentina 136 Bolivia. 139 Brazil 142 Canada Chile. 148 Colombia 151 Costa Rica Cuba 157 Ecuador El Salvador. 163 Guatemala. 166 Guyana 169 Haiti. 172 Honduras.. 175

4 page Mexico 178 Nicaragua 181 Panama Paraguay Peru 190 Uruguay 193 USA 196 Venezuela Asia & Oceania Regional summary and outlook Australia Bahrain Bangladesh Cambodia China 229 Hong Kong 232 India Indonesia 238 Iran. 241 Israel 244 Japan 247 Jordan 250 Korea Laos Lebanon Malaysia. 262 New Zealand 265 page Oman 268 Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Singapore Sri Lanka. 283 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) 295 Regional summary and outlook. 296 Albania Bosnia Herzegovina Bulgaria. 313 Croatia Czech Republic Estonia 322 Hungary. 325 Latvia. 328 Lithuania 331 Poland Romania. 337 Serbia. 340 Slovakia. 343 Slovenia 346 Turkey.. 349

5 page Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Regional summary and outlook Armenia. 364 Azerbaijan Belarus 370 Georgia Kazakhstan 376 Russia Tajikistan 382 Turkmenistan Ukraine 388 Uzbekistan Europe. 394 Regional summary and outlook Austria. 406 Cyprus. 409 Denmark Finland 415 France Germany Greece 424 Ireland 427 Italy 430 Netherlands 433 Portugal 436 Spain. 439 Sweden page Switzerland. 445 United Kingdom 448 Statistical Appendix Production of fibers and spunbonds by country. 452 Local use by country 458 Production-to-use ratio by country. 464 Per capita consumption by country. 470 Worn clothing and articles consumption by country. 476

6 Methodology: Guiding principle for this report is the notion that all locally grown and manufactured fibers as well as spunbonded nonwovens together with the trade flow in chapters 50 to 63 result in an annual consumption figure. This approach leads to a more comprehensive definition of global per capita use than disclosed in The Fiber Year report due to including spunbond volumes and worn clothing and articles. The availability of world trade data prevents an earlier publication. Hence, this complement to the textile yearbook The Fiber Year requires an additional period of data collection, evaluation and consolidation. The production section from the aforementioned sources does not include strapping, slit film, wood pulp based nonwovens and other nonwoven production by web forming process to avoid double count with staple fiber volumes. Waste at every level in the category chain, e.g. cutting waste in apparel, is not accounted for. Own calculations taking into account the three-year average of textile consumption ( ), the projected GDP development ( ) and the current income category, based on Doing Business 2013 data from the World Bank Group, result in the projected size of consumption by As a matter of common knowledge natural fibers production is not precisely projectable due to climatic and other natural imponderabilities. Hence, annual cotton production is quite often in no accordance with consumption. It needs to be adjusted while basically manmade fiber stocks are controlled to match demand. As global cotton stocks have been traced by international organizations like ICAC, consumption figures for cotton are included in a world-fiber-use figure. Short of global data of inventory stocks for remaining fibers it is being assumed that, generally speaking, their supply and demand is balanced. Thus, this data delivers a more accurate indication for further processing volumes that determine final end-use in the end. To avoid a so called hockey stick forecast the consumption level of the previous three years was used for the outlook. An even longer period appears inappropriate due to the impact of the financial crisis. The trade section includes all codes from the textile chapters (50-63) but does not consider chapter 70 (glass fiber). Codes like, fiber used in tires, umbrellas and footwear are not included. It seems to be too comprehensive although it would further state national consumption precisely. Exemplified by Chinese industry, exports of chapter 4011 (new pneumatic tires) accounted for 4.4 million tonnes in 2012 while corresponding imports were 0.1 million tonnes.

7 Example for country analysis Algeria: Fiber Production, Trade and Consumption in Textiles and Clothing in tonnes TRADE (CHAPTERS 50-63) 1) Imports 259' ' ' ' ' ' ' '228 Exports 1'433 1'535 1'398 2' BALANCE -257' ' ' ' ' ' ' '007 PRODUCTION OF FIBERS AND SPUNBONDS 2) Cotton Wool 13'611 11'101 12'728 13'649 13'428 13'972 14'529 15'000 Bast Other Natural Fibers Cellulosic Fibers Synthetic Fibers Spunbonds TOTAL 13'611 11'101 12'728 13'649 13'428 13'972 14'529 15'000 Cotton Stocks 0 0-1'000 1'000 6'000-5' LOCAL USE 3) 271' ' ' ' ' ' ' '007 PRODUCTION-TO-USE RATIO

8 Example for country analysis Algeria: Population, Consumption and Second Hand Trade POPULATION (IN MILLION) 4) Population POPULATION GROWTH (AAGR) % USE in kg/head 5) Consumption of which: 2nd hd articles nd hd TRADE (IN USD MILLION) 6) Imports Exports BALANCE

9 Example for country analysis Algeria: Outlook POPULATION (IN MILLION) 4) Population POPULATION GROWTH (AAGR) % REAL GDP 7) Annual Change 2.0% 1.7% 3.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.9% FORECAST 2020 Volume 452'969 tonnes, equivalent to 10.5 kg / head The People's Democratic Republic of Algeria, located in North Africa, is an upper middle income country with a population of 37.4 million that is anticipated to annually grow 1.8% to reach 43.0 million by The country s only fiber production is wool. Sheep numbers of more than 20 million are capable of yielding around 15,000 tonnes of wool. This volume meets just about 5% of the national demand, thus, Thus, Algeria is very much depending on foreign supplies. The national consumption her head has gradually improved to 9.9 kg last year. Reportedly, no imports of worn clothing and articles have entered the country in the recent two years. A third of the textile related import value each is apparel and fiber material. While apparel has gradually gained in relevance, cotton, manmade fibers and filaments have continuously lost shares. The three leading apparel providers in value terms are PR China holding a 59%, share followed by Turkey (21%) and Pakistan (3%). Total apparel supply from abroad has increased from USD74 million in 2005 to USD259 million in the previous year.