2018/19 Soybean Market Outlook & Strategies
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1 2018/19 Soybean Market Outlook & Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives (o) (c) NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics
2 Breaking News Brazil-China joint ventures could boost soymeal trade... Chinese and Brazilian companies could form soy-processing joint ventures as a way for Latin America's largest economy to export more processed soymeal to its top buyer of raw soybeans, a senior Chinese diplomat in Brazil said in an interview. China's state grain stockpiler Sinograin will pay the extra import duties on its 70,000 tonne cargo of soybeans from the United States, state run Beijing News said in a report on Monday, citing Sinograin. Reuters
3 Objectives Review August WASDE yield forecast. Highlight changing soybean use estimates. Original presentation focus was on soybean quality differentials. Crude Protein vs Essential Amino Acids. China soybean tariffs have dominated market psychology. New focus will be on most common questions I have received.
4 Most Common Questions Even with the 25% tariffs, China still has to buy soybeans from the U.S., right? The U.S. can sell more soybeans to other countries, especially those that were buying from Brazil, right? Example = European Union. This will all get fixed before the Mid-term elections, right? President Trump is working to increase soybean export sales with China, right? Implication: We can store our way out of the problem, right?
5 Key Takeaways The trade war is not due to issues about agriculture; agriculture has be caught up in the fight over other issues. We must separate the discussion about the flow of grain (quantities exported) and price. Better question: At what price can we export our soybeans?
6 Key Takeaways The tariffs can disappear and reappear at any time, but a trade agreement will take months/years. There are a range of implications: Short term implications. Futures price reductions and high levels of price volatility. Basis implications the cash market will need to figure out alternative grain flows. Domestic Crush and export oil/meal International Gulf vs PNW vs Interior
7 Key Takeaways There are a range of implications: Intermediate term implications. What changes will Brazil and Argentina make this fall? Planted acres (hectares) Export tax rates Argentina Long term implications Will trading partners be concerned U.S. will use trade as political weapon? Will trading partners view U.S. as finally forcing China to play fair? Will the U.S. be the first call or the last call when an importer is looking for soybeans?
8 Key Takeaways There are a range of implications: Long term implications (cont.) How hard will China work to diversify their sources of soybeans? South Africa Black Sea Ukraine & Southern Russia What will be the new growth areas (alternative markets) the U.S. can access?
9 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
10 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. Planted Acreage is down 500,000 acres from last year. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
11 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. S.B. yield was the big surprise. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Private yield estimates: Average = 48.7 Range = Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
12 What is U.S. trend line yield? ( ) 50.0 Bushels /Acre Average Yield Outlook Trend Line Oilseeds Data Base Table 1 Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE
13 What is U.S. trend line yield? ( ) 50.0 Bushels /Acre bu./a. above trendline was 5.0 bu./a. above trendline. Average Yield Outlook Trend Line Oilseeds Data Base Table 1 Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE
14 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Total Production is forecast to increase 4.4%. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Sixth production record in a row. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
15 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, U.S. Soybean Use Crushings Exports Seed & Residual Million Bushels 2000/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /19 Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table 2017/2018 Crushings have been increasing due to production issues in Argentina. U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 2018/2019 forecast is up 1.0%. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
17 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table RFS for biodiesel is very important in today s market. U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. 32.2% of soybean oil is forecast to be used in biodiesel. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
18 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table Exports are forecast to decrease 2.4% from last year. U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Exports forecast was reduced 230 mill. bu. to adjust for Chinese import tariffs. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
19 3,000,000 Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales (09/01/ /02/2018) 2,500,000 Metric Tons/Week 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
20 U.S. Soybean Export Destinations (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2012/ / / / /17 China 21, , , , ,148.3 Mexico 2, , , , ,665.0 Indonesia 1, , , , ,296.9 Japan 1, , , , ,137.2 Netherlands , , , ,044.9 Taiwan 1, , , , ,292.7 ROW 6, , , , ,532.7 Total 36, , , , , Soybean Exports by Country FAS Online
21 How will China compensate?
22 World Soybean Imports (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2014/ / / / /19 (Jun) 2018/19 (Aug) China 78,350 83,230 93,495 97, ,000 95,000 European Union 13,914 15,120 13,422 14,100 14,200 15,800 Mexico 3,819 4,126 4,126 4,600 4,650 4,750 Japan 3,004 3,186 3,175 3,250 3,250 3,300 Thailand 2,411 2,798 3,077 3,150 3,225 3,250 Egypt 1,947 1,300 2,115 3,000 2,900 3,150 ROW 20,917 23,578 24,913 29,177 28,144 29,579 Total 124, , , , , ,829 USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade
23 World Soybean Exports (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2014/ / / / /19 (Jun) 2018/19 (Aug) Brazil 50,612 54,383 63,137 74,650 72,950 75,000 United States 50,136 52,870 58,960 56,744 62,324 56,064 Argentina 10,575 9,922 7,026 3,100 8,000 8,000 Paraguay 4,576 5,400 6,129 6,250 5,900 5,900 Canada 3,763 4,236 4,591 5,500 5,800 5,500 ROW 6,548 5,705 7,502 5,993 7,399 7,499 Total 126, , , , , ,963 USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade
24 World Soybean Crush (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2014/ / / / /19 (Jun) 2018/19 (Aug) China 74,500 81,500 88,000 92, ,000 95,000 United States 50,975 51,335 51,742 55,248 54,431 56,064 Argentina 40,235 43,267 43,303 39,150 44,000 43,000 Brazil 40,435 39,747 40,411 43,000 43,200 42,700 European Union 14,450 14,950 14,400 14,900 14,900 16,300 India 7,700 5,500 9,000 7,600 9,100 9,000 ROW 36,515 38,725 40,490 44,396 45,842 46,604 Total 264, , , , , ,668 USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade
25 Domestic Consumption China Oilseeds Supply - Distribution (1,000 Metric Ton) 2014/ / / / /19 (Jun) 2018/19 (Aug) Fish Meal 1,474 1,439 2,019 1,440 1,450 1,550 Rapeseed Meal 11,032 11,314 11,634 12,363 12,292 12,292 Soybean Meal 57,467 62,663 68,646 72,094 79,814 74,370 Other 8,761 7,912 8,492 9,552 9,496 9,611 Total 78,734 83,328 90,791 95, ,052 97,823 USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade
26 China Oilseeds Supply - Distribution (1,000 Metric Ton) Imports 2014/ / / / /19 (Jun) 2018/19 (Aug) Fish Meal 1,031 1,042 1,583 1,000 1,000 1,000 Rapeseed Meal ,250 1,000 1,000 Soybean Meal Other Total 1,784 1,828 3,176 3,050 2,650 2,865 USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade
27 Total Domestic Use China Oilseeds Supply - Distribution (1,000 Metric Ton) 2014/ / / / /19 (Jun) 2018/19 (Aug) Palm Oil 5,700 4,800 4,830 4,900 4,900 5,250 Peanut Oil 2,819 2,919 2,999 3,110 3,166 3,166 Rapeseed Oil 7,800 8,600 8,700 8,800 8,300 8,650 Soybean Oil 14,200 15,350 16,350 16,850 18,450 17,600 Sunflower Oil 998 1,379 1,332 1,431 1,617 1,517 Other 2,141 1,832 1,891 2,138 2,097 2,097 Total 33,658 34,880 36,102 37,229 38,530 38,280 USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade
28 China Oilseeds Supply - Distribution (1,000 Metric Ton) Imports 2014/ / / / /19 (Jun) 2018/19 (Aug) Palm Oil 5,696 4,689 4,881 5,050 4,950 5,250 Peanut Oil Rapeseed Oil ,000 Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Other Total 8,627 7,771 8,003 8,016 7,768 8,618 USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade
29 Historical Soybean Harvested Area 40,000 (1,000 Hectares) 35,000 30,000 25,000 1,000 HA 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 US Brazil Argentina USDA PSD Online
30 Historical Soybean Harvested Area 40,000 (1,000 Hectares) 35,000 30,000 1,000 HA 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Brazil: Five year average = 4.5% increase 2017 to 2018 = 6.8% increase US Brazil Argentina USDA PSD Online
31 12.50 Brazilian Soybean Bids 08/10/15 08/08/ USD/Bushel Paranagua BR Rio Verde Goias BR Sorocabana Sao Paulo BR Sorriso Mato Grosso BR Bloomberg
32 USD/Bushel Brazilian Soybean Bids 07/03/17 08/08/18 Paranagua BR Rio Verde Goias BR Sorocabana Sao Paulo BR Sorriso Mato Grosso BR Bloomberg
33 Historical Soybean Production (Million Metric Ton) Million Metric Ton United States Brazil Argentina Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE Report & USDA PSD Online
34 Million Metric Ton Historical Soybean Production (Million Metric Ton) Brazil: 2018 = mmt = mmt. (2018 U.S. = mmt.) Argentina: 2018 = 37.0 mmt = 57.0 mmt. FO1 United States Brazil Argentina Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE Report & USDA PSD Online
35 Slide 34 FO1 Frayne Olson, 8/11/2018
36 80.0 Historical Soybean Exports (Million Metric Ton) Million Metric Ton United States Brazil Argentina Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE Report & USDA PSD Online
37 35.0 Historical Soybean Meal Exports (Million Metric Ton) 30.0 Million Metric Ton United States Brazil Argentina Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE Report & USDA PSD Online
38 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2016/ /2018 (est.) 2018/2019 (Aug.) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Stocks to Use Ratio is forecast to increase from 10.0% to 18.4% Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. Production 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. 4,586 Mill. Bu. 2018/19 estimate was 8.7% in June, before tariffs. Imports 22 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,715 Mill. Bu. 5,040 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,901 Mill. Bu. 2,040 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Exports 2,166 Mill. Bu. 2,110 Mill. Bu. 2,060 Mill. Bu. Seed 105 Mill. Bu. 104 Mill. Bu. 103 Mill. Bu. Residual 41 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 33 Mill. Bu. Total Use 4,214 Mill. Bu. 4,286 Mill. Bu. 4,256 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 302 Mill. Bu. 430 Mill. Bu. 785 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Aug. 10, 2018
39 Billion Bushels U.S. Soybean Total Prod. & Use (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Aug. 10, 2018 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
40 Price per Bushel Soybean Price vs. Stocks to Use Ratio with Inflation Adjustment 1993/94 to 2017/ Percent Stocks to Use Historicial Price Forecasted Price
41 You Think Your Basis Stinks?
42 USD/Bushel Soybean Export Bids 08/10/15 08/08/18 US Gulf Spot US PNW Spot Paranagua BR Spot Bloomberg
43 12.00 Soybean Export Bids 09/09/17 08/08/ USD/Bushel US Gulf Spot US PNW Spot Paranagua BR Spot Bloomberg
44 15.5 China Soybean Bids 08/10/15 08/08/ USD/Bushel US Gulf Paranagua BR Guangdong South Jiangsu Central Tianjin North Bloomberg
45 14.50 China Soybean Bids 07/03/17 08/08/ USD/Bushel US Gulf Paranagua BR Guangdong South Jiangsu Central Tianjin North Bloomberg
46 Shifting Basis Levels 40 Historical Soybean Basis 08/03/15 08/09/18 10 Cents/Bushel North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Iowa Nebraska Illinous DTN Prophet X
47 Shifting Basis Levels 40 Historical Soybean Basis 09/01/17 08/09/18 10 Cents/Bushel North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Iowa Nebraska Illinous DTN Prophet X
48 3,000,000 Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales (09/01/ /02/2018) 2,500,000 Metric Tons/Week 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
49 Questions?
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