FAO global outlook study and regional studies. Forestry Department 1

Transcription

1 FAO global outlook study and regional studies Forestry Department 1

2 FAO FORESTRY OUTLOOK STUDIES GLOBAL OUTLOOK STUDIES REGIONAL OUTLOOK STUDIES Forestry Department 2

3 GLOBAL OUTLOOK STUDIES Global Forest Products Model Global Forest Products consumption, production, trade and prices Global outlook for future wood supply from plantations Woodfuel outlook Forestry Department 3

4 REGIONAL OUTLOOK STUDIES Asia Pacific Forestry Towards 2010 (1996) Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (2003) European Forestry Sector Outlook Studies (2005) Latin American Forest Sector Outlook Study (2005) Forestry Outlook Study for West and Central Asia (2007) Forestry Department 4

5 FAO FOREST SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDIES GLOBAL REGIONAL Forestry Department 5

6 THE FUTURE Deforestation and forest degradation will persist Major shifts in wood demand and supply are expected More attention to environmental services is expected Wood as a source of energy will be rediscovered Non-wood forest products for rural livelihoods will develop Forestry Department 6

7 DEFORESTATION & FOREST DEGRADATION In this area: Loss of forests will continue due to: Expansion of subsistence cultivation Large scale commercial cultivation Forests will increase in some economies Incidence of fires, pests & diseases will increase Forestry Department 7

8 WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND IMPORTS In this area: Rapid growth of consumption in emerging economies is expected Changes in the source of wood supplies will continue Competitive advantages will continue to replace natural advantages EXPORTS Asia Europe NC America Asia Europe NC America Forestry Department 8

9 ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES In this area: More attention is given to provision of environmental services, that is: Conservation of biological diversity Watershed protection Arresting land degradation and desertification Carbon sequestration Recreational use The main question remains: who would pay for these global public goods? Forestry Department 9

10 WOOD ENERGY Wood will remain as the main source of energy for cooking and heating in many developing countries Wood energy use will increase in many developed countries Conversion technologies will improve Forestry Department 10

11 NON-WOOD FOREST PRODUCTS will develop as a source of livelihood medicinal plants are gaining ground collection and processing technologies need to be improved greater investments in value added products are needed Forestry Department 11

12 THE CHALLENGES Keeping outlook short, but capturing all the key issues and messages Providing a balanced view of long term changes and ensuring that we are not captive to short-term trends Forestry Department 12

13 WHO USES OUTLOOK STUDIES National agencies in national forest programmes World Bank in the forest policy review African Development Bank CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme NEPAD New Partnership for Africa s Development Forestry Department 13

14 THE UNFOLDING FUTURE Forestry Department 14

15 A LOT OF CHANGES AROUND Global crisis is going on Decreasing are commodity prices: energy, food, etc. and a surge in inflation. Global shifts in the economic power, especially the rapid growth of some of the Asian economies Is globalization making the world flatter? Or is it asymmetrical? Environmental awareness is on the rise climate change A whole array of old and new challenges and opportunities Are we likely to see major changes in society and forestry, or will it be the business-as-usual situation? Forestry Department 15

16 A LOT OF CHELLENGES AHEAD Extremely diverse situation, even within countries Different perceptions of the same issues What we see is a mosaic of situations, continuously changing into another mosaic Providing an outlook of change based on snap shot is extremely challenging Geographical grouping of countries is very artificial and often conceals fundamental differences Forestry Department 16

17 OUTLOOK FOR PLANTED FORESTS Planted forests in 2005 and 3 scenarios for 2030 (million m3 yr) 2500 Estimated area of planted forests in 2005 was 271 million ha Detailed assessment of planted forests was made in 61 countries accounted for 95% of world s planted forests Planted forests in these countries are projected to increase up to million ha by 2030 Potential wood production from planted forests is to reach between 1.5 billion to 2 billion m3 by Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Total Asia Pacific Europe South America North and Central America Africa Forestry Department 17

18 AFRICA - OUTLOOK Deforestation and degradation will persist Negligible progress in sustainable forest management is expected High dependence on wood as fuel will continue Poverty related dependence on forests will persist Focus on low investment and low value added activities will continue Forestry Department 18

19 THE ASIA-PACIFIC-OUTLOOK A very mixed situation Most of the natural forests moving out of production Planted forests and trees outside forests are becoming the major source of wood supply Land use conflicts and deforestation in several countries will continue Forestry Department 19

20 CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OUTLOOK Forest reduction in the Amazon region in view of a combination of factors. Stability and recovery in Central America and Caribbean Growing importance of the region as an exporter of forest products based on wood production from planted forests Provision of environmental services becoming important in Central America and the Caribbean N e t im p o r t N e t e x p o r t constant US$ million (2006) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000-3, Total forest products Primary wood products Secondary wood products Primary paper products Non-wood forest products Roundwood Secondary paper products Forestry Department 20

21 EUROPE - OUTLOOK Forest cover is to improve, especially as land dependency declines and agriculture land left uncultivated. Removal of agricultural subsidies could significantly accelerate this Shift to high value products in Western Europe: Green products and Green energy. Russia and some of the East European countries will focus on traditional products Provision of environmental services is a primary focus Forestry Department 21

22 NORTH AMERICA - OUTLOOK No significant changes in the forest area except of privately owned woodlands in the United States and community owned forests in Mexico. Growth in wood products demand entirely dependent on recovery of the US and global economy Significant adjustments in forest industry scaling down production of traditional products and consolidation Wood energy is to become more important More emphasis on environmental services N e t im p o r t N et export current US$ million 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000-20,000-25,000-30,000-35,000-40, All 3 countries Canada Mexico USA Forestry Department 22

23 WEST & CENTRAL ASIA OUTLOOK Improvement in the extent of forests, largely on account of afforestation High dependence on imports to meet the demand for wood products Emphasis on provision of environmental services especially arresting desertification and improving urban greenery 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Central Asia and Caucasus West Asia Non-wood forest products Secondary wood products Primary wood products Secondary paper products Primary paper products Forestry Department 23

24 IN THE FUTURE Deforestation will persist in the tropics, while relative stability/ improvement is expected in the sub-tropics and temperate regions Forget about SFM in the natural forests in the tropics, except of a very small scale to produce high quality wood for small niche markets Most wood requirements will be met from planted forests Hunter type of production of wood and non-wood forest products will decline significantly No short-supply of wood is expected Forestry Department 24

25 IN THE FUTURE Relocation of traditional wood industries will continue A whole array of new green (wood and non-wood) products will enter the market Commercial scale cellulosic biofuel production will take forestry into a very different path of development. This will lead to a significant increase in intensively managed highly productive planted forests, different from what we have seen so far Environmental services especially recreation will become more important Most environmental services will be provided incidentally. Only a small part will be handled through market mechanism Forestry Department 25

26 BUT WE CAN BE WRONG!!! The greatest changes are almost certainly ahead of us. We can be sure that society of 2030 will be very different from that of today, and it will bear little resemblance to that predicted by today s best-selling futurists Peter Drucker Forestry Department 26

27 THANK YOU Forestry Department 27