Land use and land cover changes

Transcription

1 Land use and land cover changes

2 Humid Temp. Forests (HteF) Dry Temp. Forests (DteF) Humid Trop.l Forests (HtrF) Dry Trop. Forests (DteF) Deserts (De) Shrub Steppes (SS) Grass Steppes (GS) Wetlands (We) Prairies (Pr) Savanna (Sa) Rainforest (RF)

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12 LULCC transform the structure and functioning of the system. Increasing the production of commodities.. and reducing the supply of other services and goods.

13 In xerophytic forests. Modification: Introduction of domestic herbivores and logging activities

14 In xerophytic forests. Conversion:

15 A framework to study LULC changes and its consequences

16 Political, cultural, social, institutional, economic & technological context SYSTEM WITH A NORMAL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTIONING Restoration Stress Disturbances S T A K E H O L D E R S Benefits Private Public Enjoyers Affectors External events SYSTEM WITH AN ALTERED STRUCTURE AND FUNCTIONING Benefits Private Public

17 Biophysical Human Drivers Consequences Markets (local and global) Policies (local and global) Technology Social structure Greed Land use - Land cover changes Commodities Food security Food sovereignty Income Cultural values Conflicts Inequality Climate Biota Soil resources Water provision Atmospheric composition Climate regulation Hydrological regulation Biodiversity C sequestration

18 1.Describing the changes 2.Building hypotheses on the drivers of land use/land cover changes 3.Quantifying the consequences 4.Evaluation of the feedbacks

19 Change ha/person Change ha/person Change ha/person Agricultural land/ person Changes

20 Design and application of protocols to maps LULCC Landsat digitalization 50 scenes / 36 years

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23 Tamaño medio de lote (ha) Annual deforestation rate 2,5 2 1,5 ARGENTINA PARAGUAY BOLIVIA 1 0, Año Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Año

24 Design and application of protocols to maps LULCC

25 Volante et al Land Use Policy Agriculture Bare soil Native vegetation

26 No change Persistencias Persistencias Suelo desnudo Suelo a Agropecuario desnudo a Agropecuario BS to Ag NV to AG Vegetación Vegetación natural a Agropecuario natural a Agropecuario Suelo desnudo Suelo a desnudo Vegetación a Vegetación natural natural Agropecuario Agropecuario a Suelo desnudo a Suelo desnudo Ag to BS NV to BS Ag to NV BS to NV Vegetación Vegetación natural a Suelo natural desnudo a Suelo desnudo Agropecuario Agropecuario a Vegetación a Vegetación natural natural

27 Pérdidas Brutas Reductions 1) Transition matrix 2) Analisis of Change Intensity (Aldwaik y Pontius, 2012) T 2 T 2 V S C V S C T1 V S C A T1 V S C 100 Ganancias Brutas 2) Markov models = Increases 1 =

28 Agropecuario Agropecuario Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Suelo desnudo Suelo desnudo Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Vegetación natural Vegetación natural Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Native vegetation Bare soil Agriculture Total Change %

29 Superficie (Millones de ha) Dominant transitions ,5 2,0 1,5 1, ,5 0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0, ,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0

30 Annual losses (% of the category) Vegetation types more affected Rainforets Xerophitic forets Shrublands Grasslands Other Agricultural Prefered Avoided

31 % of the region Years Forman (1995); Jaeger (2000)

32 Mosciaro et al. enviado

33 1.Describing the changes 2.Building hypotheses on the drivers of land use/land cover changes 3.Quantifying the consequences 4.Evaluation of the feedbacks

34 LULCC Drivers Proximal factors Deforestation Infraestructure Agricultural expansion Logging Triggers Environmental Economic Polític Underlying factors Demographic Economic Tecnologichal Institutions Cultural Geist y Lambin (2001)

35 Global Price and demand of agricultural commodities Financial markets for commodities baskets Land grabbing

36 Land grabbing: the buying or leasing of large pieces of land in developing countries, by domestic and transnational companies, governments, and individuals. Focus on the subtropical dry forests and grasslands Gran Chaco Rio de la Plata grasslands

37 Local Logistic Regresión Models

38 Local Deforestation Volante et al Land Use Policy

39 1.Describing the changes 2.Building hypotheses on the drivers of land use/land cover changes 3.Quantifying the consequences 4.Evaluation of the feedbacks