Expanding our concept of forest inventory opportunities for the future

Transcription

1 Expanding our concept of forest inventory opportunities for the future Neal Scott, Department of Geography Queen s University AND MANY OTHERS! Forest Biomass Discovery Workshop Queen s University March 7, 2009

2 Hectares per person Hectares per person Canada s Green Advantage Forest area per person * 12 Canada G20 Countries (2001) Arable land per person Australia Canada Canada Argentina Russia United States Turkey Brazil South Africa 4 0 France Canada Russia Mexico Saudia Arabia Brazil Australia India Italy G20 Countries (2001) United States Indonesia Argentina Mexico France Japan Germany Germany China United Kingdom Indonesia Korea Japan Ref: FAO, 2004 Italy Korea China * >50% canopy cover United Kingdom Turkey South Africa India Saudia Arabia Ref: UMd GLCF, 2002 From David Layzell National Opportunity and Global Responsibility

3 Opportunities Bioenergy from forests, agriculture, bioenergy crops Enhanced forest management to increase carbon storage

4 What other information might we want integrated into inventories? Information needed to make predictions about future changes in productivity, species composition etc. under a changing climate Information to quantify the TOTAL impact of forests, and forest management practices, on the climate system (more than carbon) LOTS OF OTHERS!!

5 Recent trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Keeling and Whorf 2005

6 IPCC AR4 Future climate

7 I. Can we predict future forest dynamics under variable climate? Do growth and yield models developed on past climates apply to the future? Mechanistic models incorporate effects of e.g. changes in carbon dioxide concentrations, temperature, rainfall, disturbance (maybe)

8 3-PG Model Description Inputs Derived Data Constants T MIN Radiation APAR T MAX Precipitation VPD Soil Water Deficit APARu GPP Quantum efficiency PSN Temperature Soil Fertility NPP NPP A : NPP B NPP:GPP From Landsberg and Waring 1997 W f BIOMASS Self-thinning Root/Leaf Turnover

9 3-PG model Designed to link closely to forest inventory data predicts key variables linked to inventory data (e.g. basal area, volume, CAI) Easily parameterized based on limited physiological and stand-level parameters (NOT individual species)

10 Flow diagram- 3PG Links to inventory data Landsberg and Waring 1997

11 3-PG output Landsberg and Waring 1997 Model has been widely tested for a range of forest types (Landsberg et al. 2004)

12 Additional data needs Leaf-area index Soil and vegetation nutrients Adequate allometry??

13 Issues we can address Area required for sustainable biomass production for bioenergy (both extent and location) Forest growth under variable climate Impact of different management systems on the carbon balance of a forest

14 PnET-CN if we are interested in nutrient constraints CARBON WATER Wood C/N Dead Wood Plant C/N Fine Root Bud C/N NH 4 NO 3 Foliar Canopy Soil Water Snow C. Goodale Pers. com Soil NITROGEN

15 Forest Vegetation Simulations (FVS) (with some physiology) Changes in structure present challenges both for measurements (e.g. leaf area distribution) and modeling (stand- and landscape-scale) David Ray, U. Maine

16 II. Forests, forest management, and the climate system To quantify the impacts of forest management on the carbon cycle, we need to track ALL carbon pools To quantify the impact of forests on the climate system, we need to look at MORE than carbon

17 How forest management alters forest growth and carbon storage Change age-class structure Change in detritus C (e.g. soil, detritus) (C:N) Replanting Fertilization Changes in carbon allocation within trees (e.g. leaves vs. roots vs. stems) Thinning and selective harvesting light interception and growth efficiency Species composition Wood products

18 Howland AmeriFlux Site Ikonos imagery courtesy M. Martin, UNH EOS Nitrogen addition experiment (1999-) +18 kg N ha -1 y -1 Shelterwood Harvest Jan km Long-term flux studies ( )

19 Shelterwood harvest Started Nov Ended April 2002 Cut to length and forwarded Removed about 1/3 of basal area and leaf area Photo courtesy of Mary Martin

20 Dead-wood production and decay 10.5 Mg C ha -1 in detritus after harvest Dead-wood respiration (Mg C ha -1 y -1 ) Year Dead-wood respiration (Mg C ha -1 y -1 ) Year

21 Skog and Nicholson 1998 Fate of harvested wood: Wood products produced, and their longevity, affects the net C balance of the shelterwood harvest regime Product Wet mass (tons) % total Half-life (y) Boltwood Chipwood Groundwood Logs Pulp Studs

22 Mass (C) remaining (Mg C/ha) Decay of wood products and harvest residue at Howland Forest Time (years) paper products Timber products roots/stumps branches foliage fine roots

23 Net C storage (Mg C ha -1 y -1 ) Recovery of carbon sequestration following shelterwood harvest Time (years) net C uptake-slash/products C uptake control NEE net C uptake - slash only harvest NEE

24 Non-carbon issues If we are going to use forests to help reduce the impact of humans on the climate system, we need to consider all climate-forcing factors

25 Post-fire albedo changes Burned Control Randerson et al. 2006

26 Post-fire radiative forcing Randerson et al. 2006

27 Tate et al Non-carbon consequences -Changes in other GHG emissions -Probably not possible with forest inventories, but important Before harvest After harvest

28 We need to keep our eye on soils! arbon storage utrient reserves

29 Biomass (Mg C ha -1 ) Fertilization Thinning Ground Fire Insect infestation an inventories help establish baselines for management? Additional carbon benefit of forest management (floating baseline) 100 Additional carbon benefit Control Managed Time (years)

30 There are lots of opportunities but we need good inventory data, and it MUST be accessible!! Thank you! Courtesy of Chuck Rodrigues

31 What is needed? An integrated system that includes controls to establish baseline carbon sequestration rates and distinguish between management impacts on carbon sequestration and other impacts Information on the economic benefits of additional C stored to evaluate management practices

32 How do we measure albedo? Satellites On site

33 How will we achieve these benefits? Identify management practices that enhance carbon storage: Fertilization Species management Selective harvesting Thinning Manage for different products Implement an integrated system that includes controls to establish baseline carbon sequestration

34 Application of 3-PG spatial variability in NPP near Atikokan Thanks to Steve Kim for the image

35 Biomass (t C/ha) Idealized notion of positive management impacts on forest carbon sequestration Additional carbon BAU Biomass Biomass with imp. mgmt BAU productivity Productivity with imp. mgmt Productivity (t C/ha/y) Time (years)