Climate Change, Biodiversity and Economic Development. Kei Kabaya Economy and Environment Group Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

Transcription

1 Climate Change, Biodiversity and Economic Development Kei Kabaya Economy and Environment Group Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

2 Structure Introduction Climate change, biodiversity and economy Preventive measures for climate change Economic mechanisms for sustainable future Summary 2

3 What is the IGES? Research institute that conducts pragmatic and innovative strategic policy research to support sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region What do we research? Climate change Market mechanism (CDM) Adaptation Forest conservation Freshwater resources Economy and environment Business and environment Governance and capacity Sustainable consumption and production 3

4 Links between climate change, biodiversity and economy Carbon sequestration Temperature Rainfall Climate Change GHGs emission Disaster Sea level rise Biodiversity & Ecosystems Destruction Economy & Livelihood Ecosystem services 4

5 Links between climate change and economy Climate Change Economy & Livelihood 5

6 Damages from intensified weather The intensified monsoon due to rise in sea temperature has triggered Heat wave and forest fire in Russia Loss of 20% of grain harvests caused increase in grain price by 19% and ban on grain exports until the end of year The deadliest flooding in Pakistan 20M people have been affected including >2000 people dead and 3.5M children in danger of infectious disease 6

7 Predicted change in natural geography Rise in atmospheric temperature at high elevation and high latitude may cause Glacier retreat in Himalaya Retreat at the rate of 10-60m/yr is expanding number and size in lakes, outburst of which may cause catastrophic events Sea level rise in Bangladesh Rise in sea level by 1m may submerge 17,000km2 of coastal land area and affect 15M people in the country 7

8 Links between climate change and biodiversity Climate Change Biodiversity & Ecosystems 8

9 Impacts on terrestrial ecosystem & species The vegetation and animals vulnerable to climate change will direct to Desertification in Mongolia Grassland is thinning out in 3/4 of the country, while 7% has already become part of the Gobi desert Extinction of species in Costa Rica More than 10 amphibian species, incl. the golden toad having inhabited in the cool mountains, may have gone extinct 9

10 Impacts on marine ecosystem & species Warmer marine water from the tropics to the polar zone will accelerate Coral reef degradation in SE Asia The Coral Triangle, 45% of reefs under threat, will be gone unless sea temperature is stabilized at the moderate level Penguins decline in Antarctica Less krill supply will endanger penguin species, incl. the emperor penguin, which has reduced its population by 50% 10

11 Links between biodiversity and economy Biodiversity & Ecosystems Economy & Livelihood 11

12 Ecosystem for human livelihoods The goods and services derived from ecosystems based on biodiversity include Crops Fish Timber Fuelwood Medicine Freshwater Provisioning services Climatic and hydrological regulation Soil retention Water purification Disaster mitigation Regulating services Spiritual and religious value Scenic beauty Sense of place Recreation and ecotourism Cultural services 12

13 Economic value of ecosystem services The economic value of those ecosystem services may reach to 33 trillion US dollars per year Costanza et al. (1997) conducted meta-analysis for economic valuation of ES, concluding that ecosystems provide us humans with goods and services equivalent to 33 trillion dollars per year (value in 1994). converted into the value in trillion USD 14.3T USD (GDP in the US) 13

14 Urgent to prevent climate change But it may be difficult to halt under the current fashion of economic development Case: energy demand in India Factor India 2005 India 2030 Japan 2005 GDP p.c. (US$) ,627 Population (Million) 1,095 1, Energy demand p.c. (toe) GHGs emission p.c. (Mt-CO2) Data comes from McKinsey&Company (2009) and WDI 14

15 Urgent to prevent climate change Even under the harsh situation, we can take some preventive measures such as: Biofuel production Tree plantation But these measures are not necessarily the panacea 15

16 Biofuels Production Positive aspects Carbon neutral Employment generation Energy security Negative aspects Additional GHGs emission Conflicts on land use Decline in biodiversity Actual cases GHGs emission from palm oil biodiesel may exceed that from fossil fuel by >800% due to deforestation in Indonesia Rise in global food price in 08, 30~75% of which attributed to diversion of grain to biofuel, created >100M absolute poor 16

17 Tree Plantation Positive aspects Carbon sequestration Desertification prevention Negative aspects Decline in biodiversity Ecosystem instability Actual cases Eucalyptus plantation, intensively conducted by Japanese paper companies, may deteriorate local biodiversity in Brazil Single species forest in Australia exacerbated the forest fire in 2009, which has killed >200 people 17

18 Economic mechanisms towards more sustainable future Carbon credit Earn credits from reduction or less emission Require credits for surplus or more emission Carbon credit. A (t-co2) Money B ($) Emission quota (t-co2) Emission quota (t-co2) 18

19 Economic mechanisms towards more sustainable future Innovative financial mechanisms contributing to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and economy & livelihoods based on the carbon credit scheme PES (Payment for Ecosystem Services) REDD+ (Reduction Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation-plus) 19

20 Definition: PES scheme Voluntary and contingent transactions between at least one seller and one buyer over a well-defined ecosystem services, or a land use likely to secure that service Achievements: Not only biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, but also income generation, land tenure clarification and employment opportunities to the local residents could be encouraged through financial mechanism 20

21 Contribution PES in Costa Rica National Forestry Agency Payment by recipient GEF Hydropower plant Carbon sequestration Hydrological regulation Biodiversity conservation Scenic beauty Land owner Carbon Credit Fuels Tax Plantation Conservation 21

22 Effectiveness of PES in Costa Rica Emission of 11M tc avoided Expanded forest cover by 50% by 2005 Increased income in approx. 15% households 22

23 Definition: REDD+ scheme REDD: Efforts to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emission REDD+: Beyond above, forest conservation, sustainable forest management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks included CO2 CO2 REDD: Emission E. E E. S A. S A. E E S REDD+: Sequestration t 23

24 REDD+ in Madagascar National fund manager Intl buyer Government WCS PA mngt Oversight Capacity building REDD+ Project Mngt, Monitoring Community Life improvement Carbon Credits Plantation Conservation 24

25 Effectiveness of REDD+ in Madagascar Trading of 40K tc 04~ 06, 910M tc by ,000ha designated to PA in Kha for community forest, 50% of credits allocated 25

26 Summary Preventive measures Economic mechanisms 26

27 Thank you for your attention! Any questions? IGES: