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2 To adjust volume To chat with others, type it in to the chat bar To ask a question, type it in to the Q&A bar March 2015

3 Urbanization and the Changing Landscape: Land Use Changes and Carbon Budgets in China Linda Powers Tomasso Research and Project Leader Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health John D. Spengler Akira Yamaguchi Professor of Environmental Health and Human Habitation Harvard University TH Chan School of Public Health Mar. 10, 2015

4 Welcome Polls Where in the world are you listening from today? What is your professional background? Academic

5 AN URBANIZING CHINA

6 AN URBANIZING CHINA The Changing Face of China (Nature, )

7 China's Air Pollution Linked To Millions Of Early Deaths Tourists wear facial masks while visiting the Temple of Heaven Park in Beijing in January. Li Wen/Xinhua/Landov

8 URBANIZATION AND COMPLEX CHANGES urban form transport buildings access to food urbanization health social networks energy environmental change climate change physical activity air pollution

9 TRANSFORMING RURAL CHINA

10 TRANSFORMING RURAL CHINA

11 TRANSFORMING RURAL CHINA

12 TO MODERN CITIES

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15 AND OF COURSE

16 Yueqing: City of 500,000 is Developing

17 Aerial view, water systems, and green spaces of Yueqing. (Drawing by: Harry Lee) CP ML Development

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20 Urban Growth and Loss of Carbon Sinks Estimating changes to biomass carbon sinks such as forests & agriculture can reveal their importance to regional carbon balances and climate dynamics Natural Capital Project s InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration program will help model biomass carbon sinks lost to urbanization.

21 Forthcoming Article: Journal of Environmental Protection, special issue: Land Use and Sustainability

22 Measured Rise of CO 2 : now 397 ppm

23 Sources and Sinks

24 Sources and Sinks Goddard Institute for Space Studies.NASA.gov

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26 CO2

27 CO 2 O 2 CO 2

28 O 2 CO 2 CO 2 C

29 O 2 CO 2 CO 2 C C Leaf Litter/Dead Wood

30 O 2 CO 2 CO 2 Respiration by Decomposers C C Leaf Litter/Dead Wood C Decomposition

31 CO 2 CO 2 Respiration by Decomposers C C Root mortality C Leaf Litter/Dead Wood C Decomposition

32 CO 2 CO 2 Respiration by Decomposers SOC Soil Respiration C C Leaf Litter/Dead Wood C Decomposition 7 yrs

33 100 year permanence of CO2 in atmosphere CO 2 C Decomposition Some C storage through timber reuse

34 Origins of research: Connecticut, Research Origins: USA Connecticut, USA 34

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37 Connecticut s Land Development is far outpacing Population Growth, Data Sources: Blue line: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2011 Red line: Orfield & Luce, Metropatterns, 2003 Development outside Hartford, CT. Woodlands & Wildlands, Harvard Forest

38 My Research Question: If terrestrial C sequestration were evaluated from a twostep methodology: Scientific + Satellite Imaging Technology Could land conservation and strategic land use planning prove more an effective public policy complement to carbon abatement policies and technologies?

39 1. Assign a C sink value to land-based biomass. 2. Determine rates of C sink gains and losses. 3. Quantify a long-term ratio of C capture to total GHG emissions. 4. Specify conditions for replicating this methodology elsewhere. 5. Consider appropriate environmental and policy applications from my conclusions.

40 Research Methods and Designs InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration computer model provided simulation software to quantify and track terrestrial C storage 2 sets input data: 1. NASA LandSat 5 and 8 Land use/land cover (LUCF) maps 2. Carbon pool valuations from scientific literature: aboveground, below-ground biomass, soil, dead organic matter

41 Research Methods: Input Data 25 years of CLEAR raster data sets capturing land cover change for CT, Center for Land Use Education and Research, UConn

42 Land Cover Change by Vegetation Category 1985 v 2010

43 2. Annual carbon uptake for the most abundant CT forest species white/red pine maple/beech/birch oak/gum spruce/fir oak/pine elm/ash/cottonwood oak/hickory C live C litter C dead C soil pitch pine aspen/birch In MgC ha -1 y Data Source: Forests of Southern New England (Butler et al., 2011) 43

44 Data Input to InVEST Carbon Sequestration Model 44

45 Methods: Output from InVEST Carbon Storage & Sequestration model Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

46 Sensitivity analyses model variations from baseline values of C-above sequestration due to biomass growth 1985 Baseline growth = 1985 Baseline growth = 3.0 MgC/ha coniferous forest 2.5 MgC/ha deciduous forest % = % = % = % = % = % = % = % = 3.5 Modeling of sequestration levels using mean biomass growth rates of 2.5 MgC ha -1 y -1 for deciduous & 3.0 MgC ha -1 y -1 for coniferous forests (Thompson 2011).

47 Variations from baseline values for C stocks of Southern New England deciduous and coniferous forests C-above C-below C-soil C-dead

48 Sensitivity Analyses run on Sequestration Modeling by Connecticut s forests a. +/- 10% of baseline value of Carbon Stocks (tree biomass). b. +/10% and +/- 40% of baseline value for annual biomass growth, deciduous forests, c. coniferous forests, and d. combined deciduous and coniferous forests.

49 MMTCO2 loss per year CT Results: loss of sequestered C from land conversion, ; no biomass growth 1,045 1,040 1,035 Static modeling of CT's C sequestration (without accounting for biomass growth) 1,042 MMTCO 2 1,030 1,025 1,020 1,015 1, MMTCO 2 Net loss 1,005 1,004 MMTCO 2 1, baseline_c values

50 Results: Difference in rate of forest loss vs C capture by same land coverage Modeling of LUCF shows that 3.83% loss of forests => 17.68% sequestration loss,

51 Results: Difference in rate of forest loss vs C capture by same land coverage Modeling of LUCF shows that 3.83% loss of forests => 17.68% sequestration loss,

52 3.83% loss 16.6% loss Results: Baseline C sequestration loss is 4.37 times > baseline forest conversion

53 CT forest loss + 25 years biomass growth Foregone C sequestration > annual CO 2

54 CT forest loss + 25 years biomass growth Foregone C sequestration > annual CO 2 Net zero C emissions

55 Results: CT's annual CO 2 emissions exceed foregone C sequestration due to LUCF

56 Net zero C Net C positive Results: CT's annual CO 2 emissions exceed foregone C sequestration due to LUCF

57 China Case Study: Zhejiang Province China Case Study: Zhejiang Province 57

58 Research Methods: Input LandSat data sets for Zhejiang Province, Calculate ndvi index from LandSat 8 to retrieve bands of specific wavelength Then convert to iso-clusters through unsupervised classification

59 Research Methods: Input LandSat data sets for Zhejiang Province, Compare data to topographical basemap to classify isoclusters Reclassify isoclusters into principle land use categories for modeling 59

60 2. Carbon stock values in MgC/ha 2 Foundation of research was to assign values derived from published scientific articles on SE China vegetation. 60

61 Range of published values for principle Chinese vegetation classes 61

62 Data sources for SE China s Carbon Stocks 62

63 Data sources for SE China s Carbon Stocks 63

64 Data sources for SE China s Carbon Stocks 64

65 Data sources for SE China s Carbon Stocks 65

66 Data sources for SE China s Carbon Stocks 66

67 Data sources for SE China s Carbon Stocks 67

68 Land Cover Change by Vegetation Category Zhejiang Province: 2002 v 2014

69 Results for Zhejiang land use change:

70 Estimated Carbon Sequestered: Zhejiang Province, Normalized value curve 10,808 MMTCO 2 8,293 MMTCO 2 70

71 MMTCO2 Province-scale CO 2 measurements show rising emissions with urbanization Zhejiang Province, CO2 Emissions data source: Zhang et al. (Dec 2014) Zhejiang Doi: /j.rser Emissions MMTCO data source: Zhao, Nielsen, McElroy (Nov 2012) Doi: /j.atmosenv data source: Liu, Wang, Wu, Wei (2010) International Journal of Energy & Environment data source: Tsai (May 2014) Doi: /jsd.v7n3p83.

72 MMTCO2 Rate of Sequestration Change to Emissions Change: Zhejiang Province Zhejiang Seq MMTCO2 Zhejiang Emissions MMTCO Emissions Data Sources: Yanxia Zhang et al (2014); Zhao, Nielsen, McElroy (2012) 72

73 Fiscal implications for China s forests Greater sensitivity to ecological design: analysis puts value on ecological services beyond flood control and hydrology Quantifying carbon sequestration via per ton market price of carbon gives forest an increased value. Forest conservation/afforestation/ and reforestation provide more options in regulating carbon, broader policy tool to complement emissions reduction measures If a tax on carbon output becomes law, can t overlook flipside of lost carbon sequestration through deforestation

74 Environmental Policy implications for China s forests Despite rising sequestration levels, rates of sequestration change are not keeping pace with rates of per capita emissions rise in Zhejiang Province. Rates of carbon sink change must be recognized on the same balance sheet as GHG inventories of industrial and building emissions Preservation of forest C stocks over time is the determinant factor for influencing biomass C sequestration levels. Young age of China s mixed forest plantations indicates a robust potential for increasing C sequestration levels as: biomass of these maturing forest stands expands forest systems undergo successional transition to more carbon-dense secondary species

75 Questions at this point? 75

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