Landscape Change in the South Atlantic

Transcription

1 Landscape Change in the South Atlantic Bradley A. Pickens North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University November 12, 2015

2 South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Mission: Create a shared blueprint for landscape conservation actions that sustain natural and cultural resources

3 Conservation Blueprint 2.0 Indicator-driven approach to depict ecological integrity Does not explicitly incorporate urbanization or restoration potential...case studies needed

4 Longleaf Pine Savanna Currently occupies only 3-5% of former range Fire-dependent ecosystem Many rare plants and animals dependent on ephemeral pools, herbaceous understory, savanna structure Longleaf pine savanna Fire-suppressed pine forest

5 Introduction Bachman s Sparrow as an indicator: Responsive to herbaceous ground cover, regular burning, habitat fragmentation Known to correlate with other species of concern Distribution provides insight into the effect of urbanization and restoration potential in the southeast

6 Objectives 1) Identify species habitat relationships 2) Develop species distribution model for Bachman's Sparrow in North Carolina 3) Use scenarios to identify the most efficient sites for restoration 4) Determine the effect of projected urban growth on Bachman s Sparrow 5) Make decisions!

7 Advantages Species Distribution Models Data-driven. On-the-ground species data is calibrated directly to spatial data. No translation of literature, experts New habitat relationships may be discovered Models are calibrated based on quantitative habitat relationships

8 On-the-ground bird data Modeling Overview + Environmental spatial data Statistics! Species distribution model defines habitat Restoration scenarios Statistics! Urbanization Final species distribution model Statistics! Calculate proportion of habitat within 1, 3, 5, 7 km radii

9 Presence Data Bachman s sparrow presence locations synthesized from North Carolina: North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission (n = 544) North Carolina State University (n = 99) - Paul Taillie, Dr. Christopher Moorman, Dr. M. Nils Piels Virginia Tech / Camp LeJeune (n = 84) - Dr. Jeff Walters

10 Modeling Methods 4 methodologies + heterogeneous detection = presence-only modeling Resource Selection Function: Use vs. Availability - Logistic regression - 60% of data for training / 40% for validation 727 pseudo-absences placed within extent of survey data. Excluded urban developed and row crop agriculture

11 Environmental Variables A) LANDFIRE- fire 1 km resolution B) Mean canopy cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD) C) SD canopy cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD) D) Evergreen land cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD) E) Row crop agriculture (NLCD)- 3 km F) Urbanization (SLEUTH)- 3 km

12 Restoration Scenarios 1) Canopy cover reduction by 30% 2) Prescribed fire everywhere except urban and row crop agriculture 3) Canopy cover reduction and prescribed fire

13 Urban Scenarios 1) Examine urban fire relationship 2) Urban growth effects examined for (Terando et al. 2014) assumed Bachman s Sparrow are excluded by urbanization 3) Assumption! Current predicted Bachman s sparrow distribution is sustained as habitat (i.e., continues to be burned)

14 Habitat Relationships Localized canopy gaps Moderate canopy cover Moderate heterogeneity

15 Habitat Relationships

16 Validation Predicted absences were 90% correct Predicted presences were 87% correct Camp Lejeune Holly Shelter Game Land

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21 Urban Fire Relationship Where does fire suppression begin? LANDFIRE (100 m) and SLEUTH urbanization definition

22 Urban Effects 80,872 ha of predicted distribution on protected lands No buffer 600 m buffer ~ fire suppression

23 Current Prediction

24 Urban Growth by 2050 with Buffer

25 Urban Growth by 2050 and Fire

26 Urban Growth by 2050 and Canopy Cover Reduction

27 The Future Scenario # of patches Mean patch size (ha) Mean patch isolation (m) Current condition 6, No restoration: , Prescribed burn: , Canopy cover reduction: ,

28 All Scenarios with Significant Geographic Areas

29 Group Discussion A) Given $15 million, how much would you spend on Restoration vs. Acquisition B) What further data do you desire?

30 Regularly Burned Habitat

31 Northern Bobwhite

32 Priority Amphibian and Reptile Conservation Areas

33 Low Road Density

34 Deciduous Forests

35 Group Discussion A) Did you change your mind? - Given $15 million, how much would you spend where? Restoration vs. Acquisition

36 Conservation Blueprint 2.0

37 Next Steps Does model work in other southeastern states? Ecoregion differences in restoration potential? Relationship to red-cockaded woodpecker habitat?

38 Take Home Message Distribution of a open pine specialist can be modeled with high accuracy at a scale relevant to management Much of Bachman s Sparrow habitat is 600 m from urban areas right now. Is the species declining due to fire suppression? Other species at risk? Restoration has potential to create larger patch sizes with less isolation...despite urban growth. What is the trade-off?

39 Acknowledgements Funding provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in support of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Collaborators: Jeffrey F. Marcus, The Nature Conservancy Paul J. Taillie, North Carolina State University John P. Carpenter, Scott Anderson North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission Jaime A. Collazo, U.S. Geological Survey, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Dept. of Applied Ecology, NCSU

40 Acknowledgements Data sources: North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission; North Carolina State University (Paul Taillie, Christopher Moorman, M. Nils Piels); Virginia Tech/Camp LeJeune (Jeff Walters)

41 QUESTIONS? Brad Pickens,

42 Current Prediction

43 Urban Growth by 2050

44 Urban Growth by 2050 and Fire

45 Urban Growth by 2050 and Canopy Cover Reduction