Australian and NZ Fibre Supply Current and Future Trends. David Evans Director New Forests Timber Products

Transcription

1 Australian and NZ Fibre Supply Current and Future Trends David Evans Director New Forests Timber Products

2 Important Note New Forests This document is the property of New Forests and may not be reproduced or used in any form or medium without express written permission. This document is dated 13/01/2017. Statements are made only as of the date of this document unless otherwise stated. New Forests is not responsible for providing updated information to any person. The information contained in this document is of a general nature and is intended for discussion purposes only. The information set forth herein is based on information obtained from sources that New Forests believes to be reliable, but New Forests makes no representations as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, New Forests, including all companies within the New Forests group, and all directors, employees and consultants, do not accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) arising from the use of this information. The information contained in this document may include financial and business projections that are based on a large number of assumptions, any of which could prove to be significantly incorrect. New Forests notes that all projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are subjective illustrations based on one or more among many alternative methodologies that may produce different results. Projections, valuations, and statistical analyses included herein should not be viewed as facts, predictions or the only possible outcome. New Forests Advisory Pty Limited (ACN ) is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and is the holder of AFSL No New Forests Asset Management Pty Limited (ACN ) is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and is an Authorised Representative of New Forests Advisory Pty Limited (AFS Representative Number ). New Forests Inc. has filed as an Exempt Reporting Adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 2

3 About New Forests Timber Products A New Leader in Woodchip Established in 2015 as hardwood woodchip marketing business, responsible for sales from Australia s two largest freehold hardwood plantation estates. Specializing in certified plantation timber Export sales of 3.2 million gmt/ year for Hardwood Fibre Committed to quality products and integrity in our business Stable and Secure Ownership Wholly-owned and operated by the New Forests group, Australia s largest timberland investment manager, founded in 2005 to manage institutional forestry investments New Forests group manages AUD 3.7 billion in assets and capital under management including over 780,000 hectares of forests, rural land, and conservation investments across the Asia-Pacific region and the United States 3

4 Australian Hardwood Plantation Sector Stability is returning to the sector as ownership trends toward institutional ownership and plantation harvest picks up The rationalisation of the former MIS asset ownership has now been completed Strong demand from China and increasing demand from Japan Preference for certified, higher quality fibre Continued export demand and a weaker AUD have supported Australian woodchip volumes and prices. 4

5 Australian Future Fibre Supply Poor site selection will see substantial areas returned to agriculture 35,000 Average per year log availability ( 000 m3) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Actual Forecast 0 Hardwood Softwood Source: ABARES 5

6 Estimated Export Volume in 2014 by Port Bunbury Species: E. globulus, Volume: 1,400,000 GMT Albany Facility owners: Species: E. globulus WAPRES, BFE Volume: 1,500,000 GMT Capacity: 1,500,000 Facility owners: ABP, GMT APEC Exporters : ABP, APEC, New Forests Capacity: 1,800,000 GMT Brisbane Species: P. caribaea, E.dunnii Volume: 250,000 GMT Facility owners: Midway Capacity: 600,000 GMT Eden Species: Native, P. radiata Volume: 600,000 GMT, Facility owners: SEFE Capacity: 1,100,000 GMT PortlandBurnie Species: E. globulus, Species: P.radiata Native Long Reach (FT), E. Volume: HW Nitens, 2,600,000 Geelong Species: E. globulus GMT, E. SW Nitens, E. 600,000 Species: GMTEsperance (Forico) Native, Globulus, E. P. Radiata Facility owners: globulus, Species: Volume: ABP, E. P. Volume: globulus Radiata SWF, 1,200,000 CHH 1,120,000 GMT Exporters: Volume: New Facility Forests, 1,000,000 22,000 GMT owners: ABP, GMT GMT Tas SWF, Ports CHH, TLA, Facility SPF Exporters owner: owners: Facility : SPF Midway Forico, owners: Forico, Capacity: Capacity: (TBC) HW Forestry 3,300,000 1,500,000 Capacity: Tas. GMT, 1,300,000 GMT SW 800,000 Capacity: Capacity: 500,000 GMT1,800,000 GMT Bell Bay Species: Native, E. Nitens, Volume: 700,000 GMT Facility owners: Smartfibre, Artec, Capacity: 1,000,000 GMT

7 Export Volume After a significant drop post 2009, Australia s market share has recovered strongly Thousand BDMT 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Hardwood Chip Suppliers to Asia-Pacific (F) Vietnam Australia Thailand Chile South Africa Indonesia Source: RISI 7

8 Australian Softwood and Hardwood Export Volumes Japan: Softwood and Hardwood Chip Import Forecast Actual Forecast 10.0 Million BDMT F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Source: RISI Hardwood Softwood 8

9 Currency Weakening of the AUD has improved the competitiveness of Australian exporters AUD:USD Currency Trends Average 0.78 over last 30 years Average 0.89 over last 10 years Average 0.81 over last 5 years Source: OANDA 9

10 Australian Hardwood Chip Pricing Japanese and Chinese pricing has become increasingly synchronised 280 USD per BDMT Japan China Source: Industry Edge: "Australian Woodchip Supply Data" 10

11 Comparison of Japanese and Chinese Data Jan to Sep 2016 (Hardwoo Chinese Imports d) Japanese Imports (Hardwood) CIF % Change Market Supplier BDMT Price/ BDMT BDMT % Change Market Share Supplier BDMT Price/ BDMT BDMT Share % Sep 16USD/ Bdmt Jan to Sep % Sep 16Yen/ kg Jan Sep Vietnam 472, ,190, Vietnam 260, ,092, Indonesia 22, , Indonesia 40, , Thailand 124, ,182, Thailand 11, , Malaysia 16, , Malaysia 4, , Australia 314, ,701, Australia 195, ,369, Chile 65, , Chile 171, ,592, Brazil 67, , Brazil 24, , NZ 14, , South Africa 95, ,094, Total 1,082,853 8,341,949 Total 819,351 7,750,462 Source Chinese Ministry of Commerce Source Ministry of Commerce Japan 11

12 Woodchips Native Forests Volume of woodchip from native forest has declined substantially over the last 10 years Reduction in available volume has been driven largely by sustainability concerns and market acceptance of native fibre Growth in certified plantation volume has also been a factor Tasmania and Victoria, in particular, continue to export to China, Taiwan, and Japan. The lower AUD providing competitive advantage to those markets not requiring FSC certification and being less sensitive to criticism from ENGOs 000 m³ Australian Harvest Volumes NB: New Forests Timber Products does not sell native forest woodchip. This slide is for market information only. 0 Native Hardwood Source: ABARES 12

13 Hardwood Logs Growing interest in export logs to China for veneer production Export of E. globulus logs from Portland and Karri (E. diversicolor) logs from Bunbury to China increased in Around 200k tonnes of E. nitens and native forest logs are being exported from Tasmania and set to increase in 2016 to 300,000 m 3 mostly for peeling. Many enquiries from India for pulp logs, but proposed prices are not competitive with much of the imported logs going from Vietnam and South Africa into that market. Source: New Forests 13

14 Softwood Chip Export - Australia Sales have been depressed for the last few years, but positive outlook in the medium term Sales to Japan remained somewhat static until the increasing biomass market in Japan started to impact availability of domestic residues Predominantly sawmill residue chips The fall in the AUD has enabled some whole log chipping to begin easing the availability Export pulplogs have attracted strong stumpages in the Chinese market until recently as oversupply in the Chinese ports has brought pressure on pricing Million BDMT Japan Softwood Chip Imports Actual Forecast Source: RISI International Pulpwood Trade Review

15 Softwood and Hardwood Chip into China 12 China Hardwood and Softwood Chip Imports 10 8 Million BDMT Softwood Softwood (f) Hardwood Hardwood (f) Source: RISI International Pulpwood Trade Review

16 Softwood and Hardwood Chip into China 500 Chinese Hardwood Imports - Australia vs Vietnam (3-month smoothed) Vietnam Australia 0 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Thousand BDMT Source: RISI 16

17 New Zealand: Chip Export Summary, P Thousand BDMT Softwood Exporter E Napier Pan Pac/Oji Holdings Whangarei Marusumi Whangarei Port Chalmers Bluff Southwood/Itochu Total Hardwood Exporter Bluff Southwood/Itochu Whangarei Marusumi Whangarei Total Source: please add source 17

18 Asian Imports of New Zealand Woodchips Softwood Hardwood Thousand BDMT Source: please add source 18

19 New Development Industry continues to explore new market opportunities and product development The bio-economy includes not only well known products like wood products and biofuels but also applications that were undreamt of even years ago across the energy sector, pharmaceuticals, construction, packaging, and consumer goods. New Forests anticipates the bio-economy will continue to grow, driven by the demand for renewable fibres, a shift away from fossil-fuel based energy and materials, and supported by innovation. 19

20 New Development: Cellulose Nanofibre Trees are composed of wood fibres, which in turn are made of cellulose nanofibres, aggregations of cellulose molecules. Source: NPI 20

21 New Development: Cellulose Nanofiber Made from wood-derived fibre (pulp) that has been defibrated to the nano level of several hundredths of a micron and smaller, cellulose nanofiber is the world's most advanced biomass material. As the material is derived from plant fibres, it creates low environmental impact in its production and disposal. Among its outstanding characteristics, it is lightweight, has an elastic modulus as high as that of high-strength aramid fibre, exhibits thermal expansion on par with glass, and presents high barrier properties with regard to oxygen and other gases. Due to its morphology and characteristic physical properties, cellulose nanofiber is seen as a promising material for use in a wealth of fields, including filter material, high gas barrier packaging material, electronic devices, foods, medicine, cosmetics, and health care. Source: NPI 21

22 New Development: Cellulose Nanofiber Characteristics and applications Source: NPI 22

23 In Summary Although the Australian Dollar has bounced around, the relative weakness has improved the competitive position, as is reflected in more sales. Although the KP price has been down and with greater capacity coming on stream is likely to remain in the $ level DP has remained firm. Chip pricing for high quality E-Glob and E-Nitens has remained firm due to strong demand. Additional markets for fibre Pellets, solid wood, plywood, OSB, etc. continue to emerge with newer applications expected. Softwood demand remains firm and radiata pine price is expected to rise. Export volumes from Australia will remain steady at 2017 levels for the next 5 years. The Bio Century has begun! 23

24 Thank you