E U w o o d. Real potential for changes in growth and use of EU forests

Transcription

1 E U w o o d Real potential for changes in growth and use of EU forests

2 4 UNECE/FAO - linkages Phase Type Type of of activity activity Description Description / Title/ Title Date Status I Enquiry The Joint Wood Energy Enquiry (JWEE): Improving data on wood energy: done II Workshop Mobilising wood resources (Workshop in Geneva) January 2007 done III Study UNECE/FAO Policy Forum Wood Wood resources resources availability availability and demands: demands: Overview based based on on existing data data Bioenergy Policies and and Forests Mar - Oct Oct done IV Review / workshop Review Review of the of the data data and and information presented in in the the study study (phase (phase III) III) by national by national correspondents Workshop in spring spring (March/April) (March/April) Nov 07- Mar 08 Apr 08 done ongoing V Study Empirical study on national level in several European countries to gather new and improve existing data on energy use of wood and sources of wood proposed VI Study / Process Incorporating wood supply and demand into sector outlook study proposed Source: UNECE wood availability task force

3 EUwood Content 1 Project idea and target 2 Partner 3 Workpacks 4 UNECE/FAO linkages

4 1 EUwood project idea / target EU-targets: Increase the use of renewable energy. Climate change mitigation Project target: Analyse best available data to estimate real potentials for changes (normally increases) in the use of forests and wood for: energy (household, municipal, industrial, etc.), wood processing (including bio-chemicals and bio-materials), non-wood use (including biodiversity and recreation).

5 1 EUwood project idea / target This analysis will include both qualitative and quantitative aspects In a quantitative analysis the study will based on available data, improve its reliability by combining and co-checking it within the structure of the wood resource balance. examine or estimate the direct supply from forest and woody biomass outside forest. examine scenarios for an outlook until 2030.

6 1 EUwood project idea / target This analysis will include both qualitative and quantitative aspects In a qualitative analysis the study will provide recommendations for balancing material and energy use, increase woody biomass potentials, propose means to overcome barriers of mobilization and outline proposals on how to integrate social and environmental constraints.

7 2 EUwood project partner University of Hamburg, Center of Wood Science Co ordinator UNECE/FAO Timber committee EFI European Forest Institute METLA - Finnish Forest Research Institute probos, the Dutch Institute for Forestry and Forest Products

8 3 Euwood - workpacks Workpacks WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supply WP2 Methodology and empirical data 3 WP3 Demand of woody biomass WP4 Potential biomass supply from forests WP5 Other woody biomass supply WP6 Scenario description and gap projection WP7 Recommendations

9 3 WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supply wood resource balance 2007 [2005] source use [mio. m³] % % [mio. m³] Industrial Roundwood - JFSQ % 26% 214 Sawmill industry Industrial Roundwood - unrep. 26 3% 11% 89 Panel industry Fuelwood - JFSQ 56 7% 19% 155 Pulp industry Fuelwood - Maximum unrep. 29 4% 2% 14 Other physical utilization Bark 12 2% 1% 6 Wood fuel industry Used logging residues 17 2% 6% 49 Power and heat Woody biomass outside forest 13 2% 7% 61 Industrial internal Chips, particles & residues % 12% 96 Private households Pulp production co-products 72 9% 17% 138 Undifferentiated energy use Recovered wood 42 5% Processed wood fuel 6 1% source total: use total Source: Mantau / Steierer / Hetsch /Prins (2008) : Wood resources availability and demands 2005 Part I UNECE/FAO Geneva, 2008

10 3 WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supply biomass potential and its segments Forest biomass increment fellings industrial roundwood fuelwood harvesting residues Biomass from other sources post consumer recovered wood industrial co-products and residues black liquor wood outside forests plantations etc.

11 3 WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supply barriers and constraints Project title AQUATERRE Integrated European Network for biomass and waste reutilisation for Bio-products EFORWOOD - (6FP IP) ( ) SENSOR - ( (GOCE)) ALTENER bioxchange-project RM Resource monitoring (since 1999) WRB Wood Resource Balance (2002, 2005, 2007) EFSOS European Forest Sector Outlook study JWEE UNECE/FAO/IEA/EC Joint Wood Energy Enquiry UNECE task force on wood availability UNECE task force on conversion factors IEA Task 31 Bioenergy from sustainable forestry BEE Biomass Energy _Europe (7FP) 5EURES - Five European RES-Heat Pilots Northern Woodheat GLOENER - Global forest energy resources, certific.of supply and markets for energy technology EUENER EU forest fuel resources, energy technology market and international bioenergy trade Partner EFI EFI EFI UHAM probos UHAM UHAM UNECE UNECE UHAM UNECE UNECE METLA METLA EFI METLA METLA METLA METLA

12 3 WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supply linkages to other EU-projects Theoretical potential of modern fuel wood in EU27 Source: Asikainen et al. 2008

13 3 WP1 State of the art of biomass demand and supply policy review Climate change policies: Climate change mitigation - CO2 sink or source? Storage in forest and forest products Substitute for CO2 intensive materials Adaptation of forest to climate change Renewable energy policies 20% Renewable Energy Consumption by 2020 Biomass action plans of EU member states Future energy security Future development of energy prices Industrial development and employment policies Trade policies e.g. Russian export tariffs on round wood exports Recent developments in global economy

14 3 WP2 Description of methodology Wood resource balance Example: Total harvested volume in 2005 Officially registered cuttings (ORC) % Domestic yield (DY) % Cuttings not registered (CNR) % Import (Im) % Change in stock (CiS) % Export (Ex) % Pulp industry % Domestic availability (DA) % Energy plants > 1MW % Panel industry % Energy plants < 1MW % Sawmill industry % households % Other material use *) % DY = DA Im + Ex + ΔCiS Other energy use % CNR = DY - ORC Source: Mantau / Development of methods to generate market information and linkages between biomass supply and demand. ALTERNA-Report 2005

15 3 WP2 Description of methodology Forest Resources - EFISCEN Wood demand Management strategy Volume-class Forest area change Age-class Source: EFI - Forest Information SCENario model EFISCEN

16 3 WP2 Description of methodology Other biomass Monitoring woody biomass sources and uses on a constant basis is costly Therefore calculation based on empirical studies factors and coefficients National used wood potentials could be calculated per capita, by business cycles or the proportion of sawmill by products based on information about size structure of national sawmill industries = 80 kg per capita used wood? = 38,5 % sawnwood by products? Consequently a calculation model on European level shall be achieved Such a model will be helpful to fill gaps via technical coefficients in countries and sectors where empirical studies cannot be carried out

17 3 WP2 Description of methodology Outlook study methods million m³ Calculated future wood supply Calcualted material use (EFSOS) EFSOS basic method: i)a multiple equation model for demand (2) and supply (1) in major producer and consumer countries. ii)a time series crosssectional model for consumption in the other countries Supply residues Source: KANGAS/BAUDIN: Modelling and Projection of Forest Products Demand, Supply and Trade in Europe. ECE/TIM/DP/30, 2003 Supply forest Material use (EFSOS) Source: Prins, C. (2007), internal presentation

18 3 3 WP2 Description of methodology Databases Regional wood balance Source: Steierer in: Mantau / Steierer / Hetsch /Prins (2008): Wood resources 2005 Part I UNECE/FAO Geneva, Minimum / Maximum / Best estimate per item 1 Energy - IEA EurObserver Wood Energy COST - E31 MCPFE Forestry FAO 1. Different databases Different databases Timber / UNECE CEPI EPF Gesbois

19 3 WP3 Theoretical potential forest biomass supply Energy demand as a result of energy policy Development of wood consumption for energy use if EU targets (RES) are realized as planed 349 M m M m 3 1) 768 M m 3 2) EU-RES-targets: 1) 2010: 12% 2) 2020: 20% Source: Hetsch / Steierer / Prins (2008) : Wood resources availability and demands 2005 Part II UNECE/FAO Geneva, 2008

20 3 WP4 Theoretical potential from other woody biomass supply Other woody biomass will be presented for: Industrial rest wood I (saw mill by products) Industrial rest wood II (other industrial residues) Industrial rest wood III (black liquor) recovered wood plantations woody biomass outside the forest (segments)

21 3 WP6 Scenario description and gap projection consumption of forest biomass upper consumption scenario lower consumption scenario NAI in cutting volum e - increm ent usable volume including restwood Example: Germany Source: Szenarien des Holzaufkommens und der Holzverwendung 2008 bis 2012, Project report, Hamburg 2008, 79 p

22 3 WP6 Scenario description and gap projection Sceanrio segmentation

23 3 WP6 Scenario description and gap projection Resource competition - Example Germany in mio m³ - cummlative plot material uses energy uses Source: Szenarien des Holzaufkommens und der Holzverwendung 2008 bis 2012, Project report, Hamburg 2008, 79 p

24 3 WP7 Strategies and recommendations Recommendations may be given for forest policies forest industry policies climate change policies renewable energy policies for trade policies and others

25 4 UNECE/FAO - linkages JFSQ EFSOS JWEE UNECE UNECE Joint Forest Sector questionnaire European Forest Sector Outlook study UNECE/FAO/IEA/EC Joint Wood Energy Enquiry task force on wood availability task force on conversion factors Source: UNECE wood availability task force

26 E U w o o d Real potential for changes in growth and use of EU forests