Silviculture Report. Big Mosquito Project. /s/ Amanda Lindsay, Certified Silviculturist Author/Prepared By:

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1 United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Malheur National Forest Silviculture Report Big Mosquito Project Blue Mountain Ranger District /s/ Amanda Lindsay, Certified Silviculturist Author/Prepared By: Date

2 Table of Contents Introduction... 5 Summary of Effects... 5 Definition of Terms... 5 Historical Condition... 8 Existing Condition Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Warm Dry PAG Structure and HRV Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs Species Composition and Density Cool Moist PAG Structure and HRV Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Cold Dry PAG Structure and HRV Warm Moist and Warm Very Moist PAGs Species Composition Riparian Forest Species Composition Juniper Woodlands Aspen Stands Mountain Mahogany Non Forest Environments Disturbance Processes Insects Diseases Desired Condition Environmental Consequences Issues Addressed and Indicators for Assessing Effects Methodology Spatial and Temporal Context for Effects Analysis Past, Present, and Foreseeable Activities Relevant to Cumulative Effects Analysis Alternative 1 No Action Direct and Indirect Effects Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Page 2 of 48

3 Warm Dry PAG Structure and HRV Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs Species Composition and Density Cool Moist PAG Structure and HRV Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Cold Dry PAG Structure and HRV Warm Moist and Warm Very Moist PAGs Riparian Forest Juniper Woodlands Aspen Stands Mountain Mahogany Non Forest Environments Disturbance Processes Cumulative Effects Alternative 2 Proposed Action Design Features and Mitigation Measures Direct and Indirect Effects Silviculture Treatments Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Warm Dry PAG Structure and HRV Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs Species Composition and Density Cool Moist PAG Structure and HRV Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Cold Dry PAG Structure and HRV Warm Moist and Warm Very Moist PAGs Juniper Woodlands Aspen Stands Mountain Mahogany Disturbance Processes Direct and Indirect Effects Prescribed Burning Direct and Indirect Effects Riparian Restoration Activities Direct and Indirect Effects Range Water Developments and Fence Construction Direct and Indirect Effects Recreation Interpretive Site Development Page 3 of 48

4 Cumulative Effects Compliance with Malheur Forest Plan and Other Relevant Laws, Regulations, Policies and Plans.. 44 Malheur Forest Plan National Forest Management Act Other Relevant Mandatory Disclosures Monitoring Recommendations References Page 4 of 48

5 Introduction The following discussion assumes that all of the project design criteria for the proposed action are carried out as described in Chapter 2 and Appendix A of the Environmental Assessment (EA). These actions are defined in detail in the silviculture prescription. The silvicultural aspects and implications to the affected environment and environmental consequences of the treatments will be covered. Summary of Effects Stand density, structure, and species composition would continue on its current trajectory if no action is taken in the Big Mosquito project planning area. Stand density would continue to increase so that much of the project planning area would be highly susceptible to stand replacement wildfire and epidemic insect outbreaks. Over time, the project planning area would become deficient in young forest structure and have an abundance of Old Forest Multi Strata (OFMS) structure. Late seral species would continue to increase in abundance due to natural regeneration of late seral species and competition induced mortality of early seral species. Given the Proposed Action, stand density, structure, and species composition would be altered across the project planning area. Silvicultural treatments would reduce stand density and the effects of that reduction would continue at least 40 years into the future. This would decrease the risk of a large, stand replacement fire or an insect outbreak. Over time, the project planning area would become deficient in young forest structure, but the Proposed Action would increase the proportion of Old Forest Single Strata (OFSS) when compared to the No Action Alternative. Treatments would also decrease the proportion of late seral species while providing the conditions conducive for natural regeneration and planting of early seral species. Cumulatively, the Proposed Action, Plantation Maintenance, and Summit and Reed Fire Restoration projects would be widespread enough to effectively reduce the risk of large-scale, stand replacement fire and epidemic insect outbreak in all forest structural stages in all Plant Association Groups (PAGs) across the Big Mosquito project planning area. The actions within the Big Mosquito project planning area, Plantation Maintenance projects, the Balance WUI project, the Summit and Reed Fire Restoration project, and the potential actions in the Camp Lick Forest Restoration project would mechanically thin approximately 18% of the cumulative effects boundary. Definition of Terms Mechanical Treatments Vegetation changes done by mechanical cutting methods instead of by other means, such as prescribed burning. Precommercial thinning with Biomass Removal Thinning in tree stands where the trees to be cut are generally not merchantable saw log sized material (1 to 11 dbh). The objective is to reduce ladder fuels, reduce the amount of live and dead fuels, and increase tree growth. Biomass Removal Biomass can be defined as pieces that are generally not large enough to have commercial sawlog value, but meet the minimum requirement of 12 feet long to a 3 inch top. This material may be used for pulp chips, co-generation of electricity, commercial fuel pellets, post and poles, small sawlogs, and other non-traditional uses. Commercial thinning This prescription would thin young trees (approximately <150 years old) in forest stands through either thinning from below or thinning throughout the diameter range to reduce stocking levels. The goal is to reduce canopy fuels, enhance individual tree growth, and to allow for the reintroduction of fire. Thinning from below means the majority of the trees to be cut are in the smallest diameter sizes (9 to 14 dbh) and relatively few trees would be cut in the medium diameters Page 5 of 48

6 (15 to 20.9 dbh). Thinning throughout the diameter range means that young trees from all size classes would be cut. Free Selection This prescription seeks to initiate the development of forest structure, composition, and diversity that could have been created by a relatively frequent, mixed severity fire regime. These stands are presently in a condition where fire would most likely cause high mortality, and where trees are highly susceptible to mortality from insect and disease infestation. This prescription is divided into three components: leave patches, variable density thinning, and openings. Openings would be created to regenerate early seral species. The variable density thinning component would thin throughout the diameter range. Understory removal - A thinning that removes both young commercial and precommercial sized trees from stands that have a relatively high old tree component. Thinning would either be from below or throughout the diameter range to reduce ladder and canopy fuels and to enhance the survivability of the older trees in the stand from fire and insect attack. Historical Condition Vegetation conditions that resulted from environmental conditions and disturbances that existed prior to European - American settlement which began in the 1850s. The historical condition will be used as a baseline for natural conditions. Existing Condition - Current forest vegetation conditions that have resulted from natural processes and human activities over the last 150 years. Some of the activities include grazing, mining, logging, and fire suppression. Historic Range of Variability (HRV) A characterization of fluctuations in ecosystem conditions or processes that defines the bounds of ecosystem behavior that remain relatively consistent through time (Powell 1998, Morgan et al. 1994). The ecosystem condition used for this HRV analysis is the percentage of forest area within each structural stage. These ranges were defined by Powell (1998) in his white paper Historical Percentages For Use With HRV Analyses. Plant Association Groups (PAGs) Groupings of plant associations that represent similar ecological environments (temperature and moisture conditions). Plant associations for the Blue Mountains were grouped into PAGs by Powell et al. (2007) based on a temperature/moisture gradient. PAG characteristics for the Big Mosquito project area are described below: Hot Dry Forest Occupies low to mid elevations and mainly south slopes. Stands are composed primarily of ponderosa pine. Fire regime is low intensity, high frequency (10-15 years) over most of the area, with small patches of mortality. Warm Dry Forest Occupies low to mid elevations and south slopes at higher elevations. Stands are composed of ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, grand fir, and western larch. Fire regime is low intensity, high frequency (10-15 years) over most of the area, with small patches of mortality. Warm Moist Forest Similar to Warm Dry, but located in areas of more moisture with more shrubs such as ninebark, maples, and oceanspray in the understory. Fire regime is low intensity, high frequency (10-15 years) over most of the area, with small patches of mortality. Warm Very Moist Forest Occupies low to mid elevations in draw bottoms and toeslopes. Stands are composed of grand fir, western larch, Douglas-fir, and Engelmann spruce, with an understory of Rocky Mountain maple, big huckleberry, and other moist shrub and forb species. Fire regime is relatively frequent (2-120 years), mixed severity regime. Stand replacement patch size would range from 1 to 100 acres. Cool Moist Forest Occupies mid elevations, northerly aspects and cooler, wetter draw bottoms. Stands are composed of ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, grand fir, lodgepole pine, western white pine, and western larch. Fire regime is relatively frequent (2-120 years), mixed severity regime. Stand replacement patch size would range from 1 to 100 acres. Page 6 of 48

7 Cool Wet Forest Similar to Cool Moist, but slightly more moist and with a component of Pacific yew. Fire regime is relatively frequent (2-120 years), mixed severity regime. Stand replacement patch size would range from 1 to 100 acres. Cool Dry Forest Occupies northerly aspects, colder, relatively dry areas such as frost pockets, and areas of granitic parent material. Stands are composed of primarily Englemann spruce, western larch, and lodgepole pine. Fire regime is relatively frequent (2-120 years), mixed severity regime with evidence of susceptibility to torching and crown fires in lodgepole pockets. Cold Dry Forest Occupies high elevation sites, northerly aspects, and colder, relatively dry areas such as frost pockets. Stands are composed of Englemann spruce, western larch, and lodgepole pine. The fire regime is high intensity, low frequency ( years) with noticeable susceptibility to torching and crown fires. Juniper Woodlands Occupies dry sites at low to mid elevations, often on south slopes and scab environments at high elevations. Stands were historically open ponderosa pine savannahs and sparse western juniper that was maintained by frequent fires. Structural Stage Classification of forest stands by developmental stage based on the size and vertical and horizontal arrangement of trees. O Hara et al. (1996) describe structural stages as: Stand Initiation (SI) A single canopy stratum of seedlings and saplings established after a stand replacing disturbance. Stem Exclusion Open Canopy (SEOC) One broken canopy stratum which includes poles or smaller trees and where underground competition limits establishment of new individuals. Stem Exclusion Closed Canopy (SECC) A continuous closed canopy, which is usually one cohort, where new individuals are excluded through light or underground competition. Understory Reinitiation (UR) The overstory has been opened up by natural mortality or thinning, allowing an understory of seedlings and saplings to become established; two or more cohorts. Young Forest Multi Strata (YFMS) Multiple canopy layers provide vertical and horizontal diversity with a mix of tree sizes and ages. Large trees are absent or at low stocking levels. Old Forest Single Strata (OFSS) Broken or continuous canopy of medium and large, old trees. Large trees are frequent and the understory is limited to few seedlings and saplings. Old Forest Multi Strata (OFMS) Large trees are frequent, has multiple canopy strata and multiple age classes. Late and Old Structure Old forest where large trees are frequent. This includes OFSS and OFMS. Successional Stage The development of forest communities over time. With the lack of disturbance the development generally consists of early, mid, and late successional communities that tend toward a stable climax state. One example would be an old growth grand fir forest. With disturbance, such as frequent fire, the trajectory to a climax state would be changed, potentially ending in an alternate climax condition. One example is an open, old growth ponderosa pine forest. Early Successional Vegetative communities that tend to recolonize a site following a disturbance. These communities tend to be comprised of pioneer species that are fast-growing and shade intolerant. Some examples of early seral tree species include ponderosa pine, western larch, and western white pine. Late Successional Vegetative communities that tend to follow early and mid-successional communities. These communities tend to be comprised of species that are slow growing and shade tolerant. Some examples of late seral tree species include grand fir and subalpine fir. Page 7 of 48

8 Thin from Below Removing trees within the smallest diameter classes from a stand so that the stand s mean DBH increases after treatment. Thin Throughout the Diameter Range Removing trees from all or most of the diameter classes in a stand so that the stand s mean DBH essentially stays the same. Historical Condition Settlement in the John Day area by European immigrants began in the mid-1800s, initially by those involved in mining and grazing. Mining played a large role in the Middle Fork John Day River, as well as grazing and trapping. The formation of the National Forests began in the early 1900s, along with timber harvesting, intensive grazing, and eventually fire suppression. Local timber harvesting occurred in the early 1900s near the Susanville area to fulfill mining needs. Substantial timber harvesting that facilitated the removal of the large ponderosa pine, western white pine, western larch, and Douglas-fir in the Big Mosquito area began in the 1930s with Oregon Lumber Company. The Cottonwood Creek Logging Camp was located just east of the project planning area and there were many other logging spurs and camps in the project vicinity. Logging in these subwatersheds started out in the vicinity of Gibbs and Jungle Creeks as railroad logging and transitioned as Oregon Lumber Company moved west and north into cat skidding and truck hauling in the early 1940s. Approximately ¼ of the project planning area was in private land holdings after the formation of the National Forests, most of which was owned by Oregon Lumber Company. Acquisition of the private holdings into the National Forest system began in the late 1920s and ended in the 1980s. After the acquisition of this property in the 1940s and 1950s, harvest was primarily done by the use of the Keen s Vigor Classes (O Hara et al. 2010). Overstory removal and regeneration harvests in this area started in the 1970s and continued through the 1990s. Due to fire suppression over the last century, the fire regime in the Middle Fork John Day River drainage has changed. Historically, fire was the dominant disturbance on the landscape due to Native American burning and lightning strikes during thunder storms. The Warm Dry forests within the project planning area are classified as Fire Regime 1 (Schmidt et al. 2002). This fire regime included frequent (0-35 year return interval), low severity fires. The extent of these frequent ground fires likely varied from small areas (less than 10 acres in size) to entire slopes covering thousands of acres depending upon the season, topography, and climatic conditions. These fires were agents of stability, favoring fire resistant species (ponderosa pine, western larch, and to a lesser extent Douglas-fir) and development of more open, parklike stands with little vertical structure. They also kept the ground vegetation dominated by fire adapted grasses such as pine grass and elk sedge. Shade tolerant species (grand fir and Douglas-fir) were generally susceptible to these fires due to their thinner bark when young, and persistent, low hanging crown characteristics. Fire intensity also varied in response to vegetative conditions. Small areas of denser forest patches occurred in areas missed or more resistant to fire (draws, spring seep areas, northerly aspects). Areas missed by frequent fires developed conditions where subsequent fires could potentially be of moderate to high intensity, resulting in stand replacement patches. The Cool Moist forests within the project planning area are classified as Fire Regimes 3 and 4. These fire regimes included relatively infrequent ( year return interval), mixed and high severity fires (Schmidt et al. 2002). Through reconnaissance of the Cool Moist forest in the project planning area it was determined that stand structure and composition, as well as evident fire scars, suggested a much more frequent fire return interval. Two analyses were completed to determine a more appropriate fire regime and return interval. The first analysis included looking at the 1939 aerial photographs (this is the earliest year photos were taken for the project planning area) and mapping the stand replacement portions of the mixed and high severity fires. There were 338 fires mapped within the project planning area totaling Page 8 of 48

9 6,037 acres. The data showed that in general stand replacement patches were small in size, with the breakdown of fire size shown below (unpublished data): 28% 5 acres 54% 10 acres 77% 25 acres 89% 40 acres 99% 100 acres The second analysis included sampling stumps and down logs in six locations in the Cool Moist forest across the Big Mosquito project planning area. Stumps and down logs were located and selected that had multiple fire scars so that the inter-fire interval could be counted to determine the number of years between fires that scarred each sample. Rounds were cut out of each log or stump, wrapped and secured and transported back to John Day. Then rounds were glued together or glued down to plywood, if necessary to preserve sample integrity, sanded down to 800 grit sand paper, and stained. Where possible rings were counted to determine the age of the sample and the age at which each fire scar occurred. Where it was not possible to determine age, the number of years between each fire scar was counted. In total, 21 samples were collected from which 61 observations of inter-scar intervals were recorded. Samples were predominantly western larch (15 samples), but also included ponderosa pine (3 samples) and lodgepole pine (3 samples). A synthesis of the data is shown in Table 1 below (unpublished data). Table 1. Fire scar data for six Cool Moist sites across the Big Mosquito project planning area Interval range (years) Mean interval (years) Location Location Location Location Location Location Total The stand replacement patch size and fire scar data suggest that Cool Moist forests within the project planning area historically had relatively frequent, mixed severity fire. This data is confirmed by Morgan et al. (1996) within their assignment of fire regime classes to historical and current vegetation classes. In their table they list the historical fire regime for Cool Moist western larch dominant cover type forest as a mixed, frequent regime. They define mixed as fires of intermediate effects, often consisting of finegrained spatial patterns resulting from a mosaic of varying severity. They also define frequent as a mean fire return interval of 26 to 75 years. The frequent low and mixed severity fires in this region have been extinguished with the policy of fire suppression. Early timber harvest and fire suppression cumulatively have changed stand conditions within the project planning area, allowing for the build-up of surface fuels, increases in stand density, and ingrowth of late seral species that create ladder fuels. This has changed the fire regime in Warm Dry and Cool Moist forests to less frequent, mixed severity and high severity events with larger stand replacement patch sizes. Recent fires that have escaped initial attack within the project planning area and near vicinity include the Buck Gulch Fire of 1981 (460 acres), the Jumpoff Fire of 1986 (1,400 acres), the Indian Rock (2,000 acres) and Reed (2,300 acres) fires of 1994, the Summit Fire of 1996 (38,000 acres), and the Page 9 of 48

10 Sharp s Ridge Fire of 2006 (1,500 acres). The Indian Rock and Summit Fires burned with high severity and the Reed and Sharp s Ridge fires burned with mixed severity. The ingrowth of late seral species and increased stand densities have also helped to create conditions promoting insect outbreaks. A mountain pine beetle outbreak in the 1960s and 1970s killed many pine trees in the Middle Fork John Day River drainage. A spruce budworm outbreak in the mid-1980s and early 1990s has created dead and down grand fir and Douglas-fir, and live grand fir and Douglas-fir with poor crowns, reduced growth, and dead or forked tops (Scott and Schmitt 2012). Existing Condition There are eight upland forest (UF) PAGs that occur within the analysis area as displayed in Table 2 below. The project planning area is greater than 15,000 acres; therefore it is of the appropriate size to conduct an HRV analysis (Powell 2012). According to Powell (2012) it is also not appropriate to conduct an HRV analysis for a PAG within a planning area if it is less than 1,000 acres because a full complement of cover types, structural stages, or tree density classes would not be expected for such a small amount of acreage. Three PAGs; Warm Dry UF, Cool Moist UF, and Cold Dry UF exceed 1,000 acres and will be analyzed for HRV based on structure stages. Table 2. Plant Association Groups (PAGs) within Big Mosquito project planning area PAG Acres within project planning area Percent of project planning area Hot Dry UF 605 2% Warm Dry UF 15,868 44% Cool Moist UF 10,139 28% Cool Dry UF 705 2% Cold Dry UF 4,649 13% Warm Moist UF 520 1% Warm Very Moist UF 65 <1% Cool Wet UF 392 1% Juniper 259 1% Riparian Forest 213 1% Non-Forest 2,582 7% Total 35,997 Warm Dry UF and Cool Moist UF are the most prevalent PAGs within the project planning area with Warm Dry covering almost half of the area and Cool Moist a little over ¼ of the area. Structural stages for the project planning area are displayed in Table 3 below. All structural stages are represented. Late and old structure (LOS) includes OFSS and OFMS, and there is a total of 27% of LOS within the Big Mosquito project planning area. Page 10 of 48

11 Table 3. Structural stages within Big Mosquito project planning area Structure Acres within Upland Forest Percent of Upland Forest SI 4,135 13% SEOC 3,744 11% SECC 7,135 22% YFMS 4,235 13% UR 4,852 15% OFSS 1,419 4% OFMS 7,419 23% Total 32,939 a a The total acres is the sum of the Upland Forest (UF) PAGs in Table 2 above. Stand Density Index is a common measure of density that allows comparisons across units independent of individual tree age or size (Powell 1999). For any given average tree size for each species there is a limit to the number of trees per acre that may coexist in a stand. This limit is known as the Maximum SDI (Max SDI). The percent of Max SDI (SDI/Max SDI) is an index of intra-tree competition for site resources and is an indication of overall stand health; tree growth and mortality, susceptibility to mortality from insect and disease, and fire hazard. Percent Max SDI is generally divided into categories that define tree growth, stand growth, and mortality. Below the Management Zone (MZ, 0-40% Max SDI), there may be natural regeneration and there is generally high individual tree growth within the stand. The Management Zone (40-60% Max SDI) is where silviculturists tend to prescribe to manage within, because site resources are generally being captured into tree growth and there is high stand growth. Above the management zone and below Full Stocking (MZ FS, 60-80% Max SDI) is where consistent competition induced mortality is beginning to occur. Above Full Stocking (>80% Max SDI) there is generally high mortality and stands stagnate. As stands grow above the Management Zone susceptibility to insect infestation and high severity, stand replacement wildfire increases. Figure 1 below shows the percentage of area within Big Mosquito below the Management Zone, within the Management Zone, Above the Management Zone but below Full Stocking, and above Full Stocking. Approximately half of Big Mosquito is above the Management Zone, with high stand densities that are susceptible to competition induced mortality, insect and disease infestation, and high severity wildfire. Page 11 of 48

12 Figure 1. SDI ranges for all forested stands within the Big Mosquito project planning area. Ranges are percent Max SDI and include: Below the Management Zone (Below MZ, 0-40% Max SDI); Management Zone (MZ, 40-60% Max SDI); Above the Management Zone and below Full Stocking (MZ FS, 60-80% Max SDI); and above Full Stocking (Above FS, % Max SDI). Page 12 of 48

13 Figure 2. Photos of stands within the Big Mosquito project planning area that illustrate high densities Snags are abundant in the Big Mosquito project planning area and this data is displayed in Table 4 below. These numbers are averages from the stand exam data for each PAG. These are actual numbers, not imputed data, for those stands with exams that were selected to represent the project area. High levels of snags are due to high stand densities that increase competition induced mortality, previous insect outbreaks, diseases, and the Summit Fire. Page 13 of 48

14 Table 4. Medium and large snags within Big Mosquito project planning area PAG Acres Percent of project Snags DBH Snags >20 DBH Total snags >10 DBH Warm Dry UF 15,868 44% Cool Moist UF 10,139 28% Cold Dry UF 4,649 13% Cool Wet UF 392 1% Hot Dry UF 605 2% Warm Moist UF 520 1% Warm Very Moist UF 65 1% Weighted Average Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs Hot Dry forests occupy approximately 605 acres (2% of the analysis area). They generally occur across residual and Mollisol soils and are located in the lower elevations of Mosquito and Big Creeks on south facing slopes. Warm Dry forests occupy approximately 15,868 acres (44% of the analysis area). They also generally occur across residual and Mollisol soils. In the southern portion of the project planning area (south of the Middle Fork John Day River) these forests are located in the lower and mid elevations of the hillslope. In the northern portion of the project planning area they are generally located in the lower elevations of Big, Mosquito, Deep, and Elk Creeks and on south facing slopes at higher elevations. Due to the similarity of forest structure and composition between the Warm Dry and Hot Dry forests in this subwatershed, and the relatively small amount of acres of Hot Dry forest these PAGs are discussed together. The HRV analysis completed for the Warm Dry PAG will be discussed and displayed separately. Species Composition and Density Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs are represented by an array of plant associations (Powell et al. 2007), indicating the wide range of environments they occupy. The Hot Dry PAG includes many of the ponderosa pine plant associations. The Warm Dry PAG includes some of the ponderosa pine plant associations, some of the Douglas-fir plant associations and a few of the drier grand fir plant associations (up to and including the grand fir/birchleaf spirea association). Ground vegetation generally consists of pine grass, elk sedge, Idaho fescue, bluebunch wheatgrass, mountain big sagebrush, mountain mahogany, common snowberry, and birchleaf spirea. Species composition includes nearly pure stands of ponderosa pine to mixes where grand fir is currently the dominant species and Douglas-fir, ponderosa pine, western larch, and lodgepole pine occur in lesser amounts. In some locations juniper is also increasing its range into these PAGs. The pure ponderosa pine stands are generally young and even-aged due to the nature of past harvests. There is low structural diversity and a relative lack of larger diameter trees and snags. The mixed conifer stands are generally uneven-aged, with trees ranging from seedlings and saplings to large, old trees (300+ years). The large, old trees tend to be early seral, ponderosa pine and western larch, and the younger trees are predominantly grand fir. These stands tend to be very dense, have more structural diversity than the pure ponderosa pine stands, and have a greater number of large diameter trees and snags. Page 14 of 48

15 Figure 3. SDI ranges for Warm Dry UF stands within the Big Mosquito project planning area Almost half of the area within the Warm Dry PAG is above the Management Zone, with high stand densities that are susceptible to competition induced mortality, insect and disease infestation, and high severity wildfire. Warm Dry PAG Structure and HRV Table 5 below displays how the existing structure within the Warm Dry PAG compares to HRV. Currently SI, SEOC, and YFMS are within the HRV range, SECC, UR, and OFMS are above the HRV range, and OFSS is the only structure class that is below the HRV range. Table 5. Warm Dry PAG HRV analysis Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 5-15% 9% SEOC 5-20% 7% SECC 1-10% 33% YFMS 5-25% 14% UR 1-10% 12% OFSS 15-55% 4% OFMS 5-20% 22% a Powell 1998 Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs Cool Moist forests occupy approximately 10,139 acres (28% of the analysis area). They generally occur where ash soils exist, on north facing slopes, and in draw bottoms. South of the Middle Fork they are located in the upper elevations of Jungle and Bear Creeks as well as the hillslope that drains into Hawkins Page 15 of 48

16 Creek. North of the Middle Fork they are located in the upper elevations of Mosquito Creek, Deadwood Creek, and Big Creek. Cool Wet forests occupy approximately 392 acres (1% of the analysis area). They occur in the mid elevation of Bear Creek on a historical landslide. They are very similar to the Cool Moist forests but also include Pacific yew in the understory vegetation. Due to the similarity of forest structure and composition between the Cool Moist and Cool Wet forests in this subwatershed, and the relatively small amount of acres of Cool Wet forest these PAGs are discussed together. The HRV analysis completed for the Cool Moist PAG will be discussed and displayed separately. Species Composition and Density Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs are represented by an array of plant associations (Powell et al. 2007), indicating the wide range of environments they occupy. The Cool Moist PAG includes many of the grand fir, lodgepole pine (grand fir), lodgepole pine (subalpine fir), and subalpine fir plant associations. The Cool Wet PAG includes the grand fir/pacific yew plant associations. Ground vegetation generally consists of big huckleberry, queencup beadlily, grouse huckleberry, twinflower, false bugbane, Pacific yew, and a wide variety of herbs and shrubs. Most stands within the Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs are mixed conifer. Species composition includes ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, western larch, Douglas-fir, grand fir, Engelmann spruce, and western white pine. These stands are generally uneven-aged, with trees ranging from seedlings and saplings to large, old trees (300+ years). The large, old trees tend to be early seral, ponderosa pine and western larch. However, large, old grand fir and Douglas-fir also exist in moist pockets and protected areas. Younger trees are predominantly grand fir, however, due to the productivity of these sites small openings in the canopy provide the conditions for natural regeneration of early seral species also. These stands tend to be very dense, have a high degree of structural diversity, and have many large diameter trees and snags. Species composition within the Cool Moist and Cool Wet stands varies based on location within the project planning area. Stands south of the Middle Fork appear to historically have been mixed conifer dominated by western larch (unpublished data). Many of these stands have large, old western larch, ponderosa pine, western white pine, Douglas-fir, and grand fir in them with dense understories of grand fir, lodgepole pine, and western larch in some cases. Stands north of the Middle Fork appear to historically have been of two types. Stands in the Deadwood Meadow where granite parent material is prevalent appear to have been lodgepole pine/western larch stands. These stands currently have few large, old western larch in the overstory and dense understories of lodgepole pine and grand fir. Stands on the south facing hillslope above Big Creek appear to historically have been more open ponderosa pine and western larch stands. These stands currently have large, old ponderosa pine, western larch, and Douglasfir with dense understories of grand fir, lodgepole pine, Douglas-fir, ponderosa pine, and western larch. Page 16 of 48

17 Figure 4. SDI ranges for Cool Moist UF stands within the Big Mosquito project planning area Approximately 62% of the area within the Cool Moist PAG is above the Management Zone, with high stand densities that are susceptible to competition induced mortality, insect and disease infestation, and high severity wildfire. Cool Moist PAG Structure and HRV Table 6 below displays how the existing structure within the Cool Moist PAG compares to HRV. Currently SI, SECC, UR, and OFSS are within the HRV range, SEOC and OFMS are above the HRV range, and YFMS is the only structure class that is below the HRV range. Table 6. Cool Moist PAG HRV analysis Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 1-10% 8% SEOC 0-5% 19% SECC 5-25% 16% YFMS 40-60% 18% UR 5-25% 5% OFSS 0-5% 1% OFMS 10-30% 33% a Powell 1998 Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs Cool Dry forests occupy approximately 705 acres (2% of the analysis area). They generally occur in and around Deadwood Meadow, but are also scattered throughout the project planning area in areas of cold air drainage. Page 17 of 48

18 Cold Dry forests occupy approximately 4,649 acres (13% of the analysis area). They generally occur in the upper elevations of the Big Mosquito project planning area below Indian Rock Lookout and in the vicinity of the 45 Road. They are also scattered throughout the project planning area in areas of cold air drainage. Due to the similarity of forest structure and composition between the Cool Dry and Cold Dry forests in this subwatershed, and the relatively small amount of acres of Cool Dry forest these PAGs are discussed together. The HRV analysis completed for the Cold Dry PAG will be discussed and displayed separately. Species Composition and Density Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs are represented by an array of plant associations (Powell et al. 2007), indicating the wide range of environments they occupy. These PAGs are predominantly lodgepole pine and subalpine fir plant associations, but also include some grand fir associations. Ground vegetation generally consists of elk sedge, pinegrass, grouse huckleberry, heartleaf arnica, pinemat manzanita, and snowbrush ceanothus. Most stands within the Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs are dominated by lodgepole pine. Other species include ponderosa pine, western larch, Douglas-fir, grand fir, and Engelmann spruce. These stands are generally even-aged, and range from saplings to poles. Some stands also have scattered large, old dominant trees that are taller than the general canopy. These trees tend to be either ponderosa pine or western larch. These stands tend to be very dense, have a low degree of structural diversity, and have few large diameter trees and snags. Grand fir/grouse huckleberry is also a common plant association within the Cold Dry PAG in Big Mosquito. These stands are generally mixed conifer and species composition includes ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, western larch, Douglas-fir, grand fir, and Engelmann spruce. These stands are generally uneven-aged, with trees ranging from seedlings and saplings to large, old trees (300+ years). The large, old trees tend to be early seral, ponderosa pine and western larch. However, large, old grand fir and Douglas-fir also exist in moist pockets and protected areas. Younger trees are predominantly grand fir and lodgepole pine. These stands tend to be very dense, have a high degree of structural diversity, and have many large diameter trees and snags. Figure 5. SDI ranges for Cold Dry UF stands within the Big Mosquito project planning area Page 18 of 48

19 Approximately 1/3 of the area within the Cold Dry PAG is above the Management Zone, with high stand densities that are susceptible to competition induced mortality, insect and disease infestation, and high severity wildfire. Approximately half of the area is also below the Management Zone and these areas are within the Summit Fire. Cold Dry PAG Structure and HRV Table 7 below displays how the existing structure within the Cold Dry PAG compares to HRV. Currently, SEOC is the only structure class within the HRV range; SI, UR, and OFSS are above the HRV range; and SECC, YFMS, and OFMS are below the HRV range. Approximately 90% of the area within the Cold Dry PAG burned during the Summit Fire of In the Big Mosquito Project the Summit Fire burned as a stand replacement fire in the upper elevations and underburned with low and mixed severity in the lower elevations. A large portion of the acres in the Cold Dry PAG are currently within the SI and UR structure classes as a result of the effects of the Summit Fire. Table 7. Cold Dry PAG HRV analysis Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 1-20% 36% SEOC 0-5% 4% SECC 5-20% 4% YFMS 10-40% 1% UR 5-25% 45% OFSS 0-5% 8% OFMS 10-40% 2% a Powell 1998 Warm Moist and Warm Very Moist PAGs Warm Moist forests occupy approximately 520 acres (1% of the analysis area). Warm Very Moist forests occupy approximately 65 acres (<1% of the analysis area). These stands generally occur in the lower elevations in close proximity to the Middle Fork John Day River and in Big Creek. They are also scattered throughout the upper elevations of the project planning area next to the boundary of the Umatilla National Forest. Species Composition Warm Moist and Warm Very Moist PAGs are represented by an array of plant associations (Powell et al. 2007). These PAGs are predominantly Douglas-fir and grand fir plant associations. The plant communities are very similar to those found in the Warm Dry PAG but are moister and also include oceanspray, Columbia brome, Rocky Mountain maple, ninebark, and creeping Oregon grape. Species composition includes nearly pure stands of ponderosa pine to mixes where grand fir and Douglasfir are currently the dominant species and ponderosa pine, western larch, and lodgepole pine occur in lesser amounts. In some locations juniper is also increasing its range into these PAGs. The pure ponderosa pine stands are generally young and even-aged due to the nature of past harvests. There is low structural diversity and a relative lack of larger diameter trees and snags. The mixed conifer stands are generally uneven-aged, with trees ranging from seedlings and saplings to large, old trees (300+ years). Page 19 of 48

20 The large, old trees tend to be early seral, ponderosa pine and western larch, and the younger trees are predominantly grand fir. These stands tend to be very dense, have more structural diversity than the pure ponderosa pine stands, and have a greater number of large diameter trees and snags. Riparian Forest Riparian forests occupy approximately 213 acres (1% of the analysis area). These stands generally occur in the bottom of the drainage directly adjacent to the stream. They are located in Big Creek and its tributaries, Deadwood Creek, Deep Creek, and along the Middle Fork John Day River. Species Composition Riparian forests are represented by an array of plant associations (Powell et al. 2007). Riparian forests in Big Mosquito include ponderosa pine, grand fir, Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir, and black cottonwood plant associations. The plant communities are very diverse and include arrowleaf groundsel, bluejoint reedgrass, common snowberry, Columbia brome, Rocky Mountain maple, Pacific willow, mountain alder, and red osier dogwood. Species composition includes lower elevation stands where black cottonwood and other hardwoods are dominant; lower elevation stands of nearly pure ponderosa pine; mid elevation stands of mixed conifer where grand fir and Douglas-fir are currently the dominant species and ponderosa pine, western larch, and lodgepole pine occur in lesser amounts; and higher elevation mixed conifer stands where Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir are present with grand fir, Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and western larch. The pure ponderosa pine stands are generally young and even-aged due to the nature of past harvests. There is low structural diversity and a relative lack of larger diameter trees and snags. The mixed conifer stands are generally uneven-aged, with trees ranging from seedlings and saplings to large, old trees (300+ years). The large, old trees tend to be early seral (ponderosa pine and western larch) in the lower and mid elevations, with greater proportions of late seral (grand fir, Douglas-fir, and Engelmann spruce) trees in the upper elevations. The younger trees are predominantly grand fir. These stands tend to be very dense, have a high degree of structural diversity, and have many large diameter trees and snags. Juniper Woodlands Juniper woodlands occupy approximately 259 acres (1% of the analysis area) on dry, often rocky sites. These stands are generally located in the upper elevations in scabby habitat near the boundary of the Umatilla National Forest, but are also scattered throughout the project planning area in scabby areas. These stands are generally open juniper woodlands with rock outcrops and shallow soils. Widely spaced ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, and grand fir also exist, but do not exceed 10% canopy cover. Aspen Stands Aspen is found in approximately 29 locations within the project planning area. Aspen provides unique habitat for many wildlife species within coniferous forests, and it is currently much reduced from its historical extent. It appears that the combination of fire suppression, heavy grazing by both domestic and wild ungulates, conifer encroachment, and lowering of the water table has reduced the survival of aspen within Big Mosquito. Aspen is considered a shade-intolerant species, and conifers have become established and are overtopping the aspen in many stands. The aspen overstory of most stands is single-storied and even-aged with many likely close to the end of their natural life cycle. Aspen is relatively short lived and relies on regeneration to maintain healthy stands. Successful fire suppression has removed the disturbance agent that stimulated Page 20 of 48

21 suckering and limited conifer establishment. Many of the stands are still suckering, but at a reduced rate and most suckers don t reach sapling size because of big game and cattle browsing. Figure 6. Aspen stand in Big Mosquito where the fence has been breached Table 8. Aspen HRV analysis Age Structure HRV a Existing condition 0 40 SI 45-50% 2% SE, UR, YFMS 45-50% 31% 80+ OFSS and OFMS 5-10% 57% a Swanson et al These characteristics put most of the stands in the subwatershed in an OFSS/OFMS structural stage (or an 80+ year old age class), the most prevalent on the Forest. The desired historic range of variation for this age class is just 5-10% of the landscape. Mountain Mahogany Mountain mahogany is found in a number of places throughout the project planning area. It is a unique habitat that is reduced from its historical extent. It has been impacted by conifer encroachment and heavy grazing by both domestic and wild ungulates. Non Forest Environments Non forest areas occupy approximately 2,582 acres (7% of the analysis area). These areas include the Middle Fork John Day River, relatively large openings in the forest canopy of forested stands, dry meadows, moist meadows, and open hillsides scattered throughout the project planning area. Dry meadows and grasslands are found in several locations within the planning area and are characterized by generally shallow and rocky soils. They were historically maintained by frequent wildfires in an open Page 21 of 48

22 savannah condition with a few widely spaced ponderosa pine trees and juniper woodlands. With fire suppression there has been varying degrees of ingrowth of juniper and ponderosa pine trees. Moist meadows are abundant in this analysis area. They can be relatively large and they are believed to have historically stored water late into the year. Historically these meadows were maintained by wildfire and flooding of the meadows through beaver dams that kept trees from encroaching on the meadows. Due to grazing and removal of down wood from these areas, downcutting has occurred causing a lowering of the water table and drying out the wet meadows. This has allowed for conifer encroachment, further drying out these meadows. Disturbance Processes The Big Mosquito project planning area has historically and is currently being affected by many disturbance agents. These include insects, diseases, fire, and human related disturbances such as timber harvest, fire suppression, and grazing. Fire is by far the major natural disturbance agent in the Middle Fork John Day River drainage. Fire has played a major role in shaping the structure, species composition and density of this area, and would continue to play this role into the future. The role of fire on the landscape and the relatively recent fire events were discussed in the Historical Condition section, as well as previous timber harvest, fire suppression, and grazing. Insects There are many insects present within the Big Mosquito project planning area which include bark beetles and defoliators. Currently, all of the insects present are at endemic levels. At endemic levels, they play an important role in contributing to structural diversity and providing dead wood habitat for wildlife and soil productivity. Scattered individual tree mortality creates small openings in stands where pockets of understory can establish. Bark beetles are the most common insects present in the dry forests. The western pine beetle is the primary bark beetle working in stands dominated by large, old ponderosa pine. It causes scattered individual tree mortality, killing large, old ponderosa pine trees that have been weakened by drought stress and high stand densities. Mountain pine beetle and pine engraver are beetles that generally attack trees within dense thickets of small to medium diameter ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine. Due to past management practices, denser stands within the project planning area that have a high proportion of sapling to pole sized ponderosa pine or lodgepole pine are currently at risk for mountain pine beetle and pine engraver mortality. Fir engraver activity is currently prevalent in dry and moist mixed conifer stands due to the combination of high stand densities and increased proportion of grand fir occupying these sites. Fir engraver attacks grand fir trees that are pole-sized and larger causing mortality, topkill, and branch flagging (Goheen and Willhite 2006). The main defoliating insect present within the Big Mosquito project planning area is the spruce budworm. This insect feeds on the current-year foliage of predominantly grand fir, but may also attack Douglas-fir, Engelmann spruce, and western larch. They cause localized branch dieback and topkill after a few years of heavy defoliation, and may kill trees after four to five years of sustained feeding (Goheen and Willhite 2006). Diseases There are many diseases prevalent within the Big Mosquito project planning area. The major diseases include dwarf mistletoes, armillaria, annosus, and Indian paint fungus. As with insects, these diseases play an important role in creating structural diversity, creating a source of snags and down logs, providing important wildlife habitat and recycling nutrients to maintain soil productivity. At severe levels, these Page 22 of 48

23 diseases can greatly inhibit tree growth and old forest structure. They also provide unique wildlife habitat, such as roosting sites for grouse. The primary species infected by dwarf mistletoe are ponderosa pine, western larch, lodgepole pine, and Douglas-fir. Historically dwarf mistletoe was present in low levels. It predisposed the occasional tree to bark beetle attack or torching by fire. Frequent fires likely kept overall levels of mistletoe low due to "fire pruning" of infected branches and through potential negative impacts of the heat and smoke on developing mistletoe plants. Mistletoe is abundant in Big Mosquito. A large portion of the pole sized to mature western larch is infected with mistletoe, which is the primary reason for western larch mortality. Ponderosa pine mistletoe is prevalent in the pine stands between Mosquito and Big Creeks. Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine mistletoe are also found in isolated pockets within many of the Cool Moist stands. The primary root diseases in Big Mosquito are annosus and armillaria that result in small "centers" of mortality and associated gaps in the forest canopy. They are generally found in conjunction with bark beetles. Historically root disease infection levels were generally low because of the higher proportion of early seral species and lower stand densities. Frequent fires also helped keep root diseases at low levels due to the promotion of soil fungi that compete with pathogenic fungi, and through beneficial effects of fire on soil nutrients and nutrient cycling. There are scattered centers of annosus throughout the project planning area that are generally associated with previous logging. Annosus is spread by spores in the air entering cut stumps and moving down through the roots. Its main hosts are grand fir, Engelmann spruce, and Douglas-fir, but it may also infect ponderosa pine. It causes severe root and butt decay, growth loss, and tree mortality (Goheen and Willhite 2006). Armillaria is found in scattered centers predominantly on ash soils and ridgetops in Big Mosquito. It is spread by the roots of trees and primarily infects grand fir and Douglas-fir, although in severe cases it may infect ponderosa pine and planted western larch. It causes severe root and butt decay, growth loss, and mortality (Goheen and Willhite 2006). Conks of Indian paint fungus are prevalent in the project planning area associated with Cool Moist stands and late seral tree species. Most of the mature grand fir within the project planning area are currently infected. Indian paint fungus is a pathogen that weakens the main stem of live trees by causing rust red stringy rot of the heartwood. Loss of significant wood volume by the advanced decay of the heartwood of host trees infected by this pathogen often makes infected trees unmerchantable over time. Desired Condition The Malheur National Forest Land and Resource Management Plan, as amended by the Eastside Screens provides the basis for actively addressing restoration towards the historic range of variability, and moving the area towards a more resistant and resilient landscape. Currently, values and features associated with and adjacent to the project planning area such as dispersed recreation sites, Old Growth Management Areas, wildlife habitat, riparian corridors, the Vinegar Hill Indian Rock Scenic Area, scenic views, and Inventoried Roadless Areas are susceptible to wide-scale disturbances due to existing stand density, structure and species composition. The desired future condition is to shift the Big Mosquito project planning area to be more within historical conditions: Shift towards more historical species composition given the historical fire regime. Shift towards structural stages that are within or moving towards HRV. Reduce density to manage more within the Management Zone. Page 23 of 48

24 Obtaining these conditions would increase tree growth and vigor, decrease risk of large-scale, stand replacement wildfire, and reduce the susceptibility of epidemic insect and disease outbreaks. Environmental Consequences Issues Addressed and Indicators for Assessing Effects The analysis indicators for assessing effects of each alternative and for comparing alternatives include HRV as defined by structural stages across the landscape, stand density, species composition, and the extent to which the area is treated to achieve these objectives and provide for the Accelerated Restoration Strategy of treating more acres and providing forest restoration jobs. These indicators and how they are measured are described in the Existing Condition section above. Table 9. Resource indicators and measures for assessing effects Objective Indicator Justification Change structural stages to be within, or moving towards HRV Reduce stand density across the project planning area Shift species composition to increase proportion of early seral species Provide wood products and forest restoration jobs Percentage change of structural stages in relation to HRV Percentage change of acres above the MZ, within the MZ, and below the MZ as defined by MaxSDI Percentage of early seral species across PAGs Acres mechanically treated Regional Forester s Forest Plan Ammendment #2 (1995) Suggested stocking levels for forest stands in Northeastern Oregon and Southeastern Washington: an implementation guide for the Umatilla National Forest (Powell 1999) Malheur National Forest Land and Resource Management Plan (1990) Methodology Information concerning stands has been gathered through a combination of photo interpretation, formal timber stand exams in , 2010, and 2012, and walk-throughs in Modeling was used to project stand development through 40 years for future structural stages, stand density, and species composition. The FSVeg Data Analyzer program was used to run the Nearest Neighbor (NN) analysis and Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) on all of the forested stands within the Big Mosquito Project. The NN analysis populates stands without current stand exam data using similar stands with exam data. The FVS model, with the Blue Mountains variant, was used to grow stands to 2014, and then apply prescriptions to the stands proposed and project stand growth and development for forty years. All mechanical treatments, including the Riparian Enhancement Treatments, that are proposed within the Big Mosquito project, as well as the first application of prescribed burning were simulated in this analysis. FVS projections were then used to compare stand structure, stand density, and species composition between the no action and proposed action alternatives to determine if they met Page 24 of 48

25 project goals. Long-term projections become estimates at best; however, results do show trends and are useful for comparing different alternatives. Assumptions for estimating effects include: HRV approximates the Desired Future Condition. The future climate will be within the current range of variation. Current insects and diseases will continue to inhabit the forest and populations will fluctuate depending on stand conditions. The current trends in forest stand composition, structure, and density will continue, assuming that no further mechanical vegetation management would occur. Regeneration resulting from opening up stands in the Warm Dry PAG would be kept at low levels by periodic underburning. Assumptions for the FSVeg Data Analyzer model include: Benchmarks for the future structural stage analysis are set at 10 and 40 years in the future. The mechanical treatments in the Proposed Action alternative are only applied once, at the start of the modeling time period. They are not repeated again within the 40 year modeling cycle. The prescribed burning in the Proposed Action alternative is only applied once in the first cycle of FVS. Prescribed burning was not repeated again within the 40 year modeling cycle. The stands without mechanical treatment or prescribed fire are grown using the assumptions for the No Action Alternative. No other disturbances occur that result in stand replacement (wildfire, insects, wind, etc.). The above modeling constraints are used to simplify the analysis and are only for comparative purposes between the no action and the proposed action alternatives. They are not intended to accurately predict actual future conditions. Based on science and professional knowledge, it is reasonable to believe that climate change and future disturbances will occur that will affect the vegetation in the Big Mosquito project area. However, due to the uncertainty and unpredictability of these events, and how forest vegetation will respond to them, they were not incorporated in this analysis which is for comparison purposes only. These assumptions were made because it is impossible to predict when, where, what, and the extent of future disturbances and because there is still great uncertainty to the effects of future climate change. Scientists agree that the future climate in the Blue Mountains will be hotter, but there is great uncertainty as to whether it will be drier or wetter. Changes in the amount, form, and timing of precipitation could have drastic effects on forest extent, composition, and diversity. Spatial and Temporal Context for Effects Analysis The boundary used for the direct and indirect effects analysis was the Big Mosquito project planning area, which includes the Big Creek and Mosquito Creek subwatershed boundaries. The boundary used for the cumulative effects analysis includes the Big Mosquito project planning area and the directly adjacent subwatersheds. This includes the Summit Fire and Reed Fire project area to the east, private land to the west, the Umatilla National Forest to the north, and the Camp Lick project area to the southeast. This area is approximately 212,450 acres. The timeframe for the direct and indirect effects of vegetation management is relatively short-term for forest development. Direct and indirect effects are assessed 10 years and 40 years after treatment. The timeframe for cumulative effects is relatively long-term for forest development and includes cumulative effects of past logging, current restoration treatments, and the Big Mosquito Project on species composition, stand density, and stand structure. Page 25 of 48

26 Past, Present, and Foreseeable Activities Relevant to Cumulative Effects Analysis The past activities that have cumulative effects to forest vegetation within the Big Mosquito project planning area include historic timber harvest, more recent timber harvesting in the 1970s through the 1990s, fire suppression, wildfire, timber salvage, planting following regeneration harvest and wildfire, and grazing. Most of these activities are discussed at length in the historical condition section of this report. Until recently timber salvage was a common practice on the Malheur National Forest. Most, if not all of the fires that occurred in the project planning area or the near vicinity had some level of salvage logging occur after the fire. Salvage helped prepare sites and pay for extensive planting following stand replacement wildfire. Planting within wildfires and regeneration harvests was generally dense, up to 680 trees per acre, and included planting predominantly ponderosa pine, but also included western larch, western white pine, Douglas-fir, and even lodgepole pine in some areas. Dense planting, along with abundant natural regeneration in some areas, provided for young, dense stands of predominantly early seral species. Historical grazing practices started with primarily high numbers of sheep in the area in the late 1800s and early 1900s. In the early to mid-1900s grazing transitioned into primarily cattle grazing and is currently 100% cattle grazing. Cattle numbers have dramatically decreased over time and grazing is currently a vigorously monitored and managed activity within and adjacent to the project planning area. Due to historical grazing practices, fire suppression, and the climate in the early 1900s natural regeneration of tree species was stimulated, beginning the density increases of the 20 th century. Current grazing practices generally do not impact the competing vegetation enough to influence natural regeneration success. The recent past and present activities that have cumulative effects to forest vegetation include plantation maintenance, the Summit and Reed Fire Restoration Project, the Balance WUI project, grazing as stated above, and continued fire suppression. The Plantation Maintenance, Lower Middle Fork Project is within the Big Mosquito project planning area. The project includes precommercial thinning, handpiling, and burning the piles within the dense plantations that were harvested in the 1970s-1990s. There are approximately 105 units totaling 2,958 acres. For this project all of the units that were a high priority have been thinned and most of them have been handpiled and the piles burned. There are still a few units left that need to be handpiled within the Big Mosquito project planning area. Approximately 8,750 acres of plantations are also within various stages of completion within the larger cumulative effects boundary. These include plantations from the Plantation Maintenance Ragged Rocks, Plantation Maintenance Long Creek, and Plantation Maintenance Camp Creek projects. The Summit and Reed Fire Restoration Project is also a part of the Plantation Maintenance, Lower Middle Fork Project. This project was designed to thin and treat the fuels across the fire landscape to provide increased tree growth and vigor, decreased fire hazard, and increased wildlife habitat. Fuels treatments include handpiling the created thinning slash as well as existing down wood, and burning the piles. The project treats 61 units totaling 6,931 acres. The portion of the project that is within the Big Mosquito project planning area includes 38 units totaling 2,989 acres. The Plantation Maintenance and Summit and Reed Fire Restoration projects greatly reduce the density and treat the fuels of young, dense stands through variable density thinning practices that are intended to more mimic natural forest structure, pattern, and species composition as well as provide for quality wildlife habitat. The Balance WUI project mechanically thinned approximately 1,000 acres. This project was located in the vicinity of Balance Lake and was implemented to reduce fuel loadings and decrease potential fire behavior in the WUI. The reasonably foreseeable activity that would cumulatively have an effect on the vegetation in the Middle Fork John Day River drainage includes the Camp Lick Forest Restoration Project. This project is a 40,000 acre restoration project that is within the Camp and Lick Creek subwatersheds and is directly Page 26 of 48

27 adjacent to and east of the Bear Creek subwatershed in Big Mosquito. This project would reduce stand density, shift species composition by reducing the abundance of late seral species, and move forest structure closer to HRV through commercial and precommercial mechanical methods and through prescribed burning. Alternative 1 No Action Direct and Indirect Effects Given no action the Big Mosquito project planning area would continue growing on its current trajectory. Forested stands would continue to be overstocked with high proportions of late seral species. Stand structure would shift from predominantly young forest structure to predominantly old forest structure, doubling the amount of LOS (OFSS and OFMS) in 40 years. The proportion of the project planning area above the Management Zone would increase from currently approximately half of the area to approximately 87% in 40 years. Table 10. Structural stages for the No Action Alternative within Big Mosquito Structure Existing condition SI 13% 4% 0% SEOC 11% 7% 6% SECC 22% 16% 18% YFMS 13% 8% 3% UR 15% 21% 10% OFSS 4% 7% 13% OFMS 23% 37% 49% Page 27 of 48

28 Figure 7. SDI ranges for the No Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Figure 8. SDI ranges for the No Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Given no action the species composition in pure ponderosa pine stands would continue to be predominantly ponderosa pine over time, with an increase in abundance of western juniper in the hotter, drier stands. Late seral species in the mixed conifer stands would continue to increase in abundance. The proportion of area below or within the Management Zone would decrease and in 40 years would only be approximately 20% of the area within the Warm Dry PAG. Page 28 of 48

29 Figure 9. SDI ranges for Warm Dry UF stands for the No Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Figure 10. SDI ranges for Warm Dry UF stands for the No Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Warm Dry PAG Structure and HRV Table 11 below displays how the No Action Alternative within the Warm Dry PAG compares to HRV through time. Over time OFMS would continue to be above HRV, increasing in abundance to approximately half of the area within the Warm Dry PAG. There is a trend that after 40 years the Warm Dry PAG would be deficient in young forest structure (SI and YFMS) as well as low in OFSS. Page 29 of 48

30 Table 11. Warm Dry PAG HRV analysis for the No Action Alternative Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 5-15% 9% 4% 0% SEOC 5-20% 7% 5% 9% SECC 1-10% 33% 18% 17% YFMS 5-25% 14% 13% 3% UR 1-10% 12% 18% 3% OFSS 15-55% 4% 7% 16% OFMS 5-20% 22% 36% 53% a Powell 1998 Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs Species Composition and Density Given no action late seral species in the mixed conifer stands would continue to increase in abundance and compete with the large, old ponderosa pine and western larch. The proportion of area below or within the Management Zone would decrease and in 40 years would only be approximately 4% of the area within the Cool Moist PAG. Figure 11. SDI ranges for Cool Moist UF stands for the No Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Page 30 of 48

31 Figure 12. SDI ranges for Cool Moist UF stands for the No Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Cool Moist PAG Structure and HRV Table 12 below displays how the No Action Alternative within the Cool Moist PAG compares to HRV through time. Over time OFMS would continue to be above HRV, increasing in abundance to approximately 65% of the area within the Cool Moist PAG. There is a trend that after 40 years the Cool Moist PAG would be deficient in young forest structure (SI and YFMS) as well as low in SEOC and UR. Table 12. Cool Moist PAG HRV analysis for the No Action Alternative Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 1-10% 8% 4% 0% SEOC 0-5% 19% 10% 3% SECC 5-25% 16% 21% 21% YFMS 40-60% 18% 6% 5% UR 5-25% 5% 3% 0% OFSS 0-5% 1% 2% 6% OFMS 10-30% 33% 55% 65% a Powell 1998 Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density Given no action the lodgepole pine stands would continue to grow and increase in density until they stagnate and become susceptible to mountain pine beetle infestation. Late seral species and lodgepole pine in the mixed conifer stands would continue to increase in abundance and compete with the large, old Page 31 of 48

32 ponderosa pine and western larch. The proportion of area below or within the Management Zone would decrease and in 40 years would only be approximately 5% of the area within the Cold Dry PAG. Figure 13. SDI ranges for Cold Dry UF stands for the No Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Figure 14. SDI ranges for Cold Dry UF stands for the No Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Cold Dry PAG Structure and HRV Table 13 below displays how the No Action Alternative within the Cold Dry PAG compares to HRV through time. Over time OFSS and UR would continue to be above HRV, increasing in abundance to approximately 16% and 54%, respectively, of the area within the Cold Dry PAG. There is a trend that after 40 years the Cold Dry PAG would be deficient in young forest structure (SI and YFMS) as well as OFMS. Page 32 of 48

33 Table 13. Cold Dry PAG HRV analysis for the No Action Alternative Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 1-20% 36% 9% 0% SEOC 0-5% 4% 2% 1% SECC 5-20% 4% 2% 26% YFMS 10-40% 1% 1% 2% UR 5-25% 45% 74% 54% OFSS 0-5% 8% 12% 16% OFMS 10-40% 2% 1% 2% a Powell 1998 Warm Moist and Warm Very Moist PAGs Given no action these stands would continue to grow and increase in density. Late seral species such as grand fir and Douglas-fir would continue to increase in abundance and proportion. As the overstory trees grow and the canopy closes understory shrubs such as oceanspray, Rocky Mountain maple, and ninebark would be shaded out and would decrease in abundance and vigor. Riparian Forest Given no action these stands would continue to grow and increase in density. Late seral species such as grand fir, Douglas-fir, and Engelmann spruce would continue to increase in abundance and proportion. As the overstory trees grow and the canopy closes understory shrubs such as Rocky Mountain maple, Pacific willow, mountain alder, and red osier dogwood would be shaded out and would decrease in abundance and vigor. Juniper Woodlands Given no action juniper would continue to persist, regenerate and expand across the landscape. Woodlands would likely be encroached upon by ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir, and may decrease in size and abundance across the project planning area. Aspen Stands Given no action fire suppression, grazing by both domestic and wild ungulates, conifer encroachment, and lowering of the water table would continue at its current rate. Since many of the mature trees are close to the end of their natural life cycle with little to no regeneration establishing it is likely that aspen in Big Mosquito would substantially decline in vigor and abundance across the project planning area. Mountain Mahogany Mountain mahogany would continue to be impacted by grazing and conifer encroachment and would continue to be reduced from its historical extent. Non Forest Environments Given no action dry and wet meadows would continue to be encroached upon by conifers and would continue to decline in size and extent across the project planning area. Downcutting of the streams would continue to occur, lowering the water table even further, allowing for even more conifer encroachment. Page 33 of 48

34 Disturbance Processes Given no action stand densities across the project planning area would continue to increase. This continually increases the risk of insect outbreaks of western spruce budworm, mountain pine beetle, and western pine beetle in the project planning area. It also continually increases the risk of a large-scale, stand replacement fire. Effects from diseases such as mistletoe, Indian paint fungus, armillaria, and annosus would continue increasing due to stand densities and high proportions of late seral species. Cumulative Effects The effects from past practices which include timber harvesting, fire suppression, intense grazing, wildfire, and planting have created predominantly young, overstocked stands of late seral species that currently persist across the project planning area. Taking no action to reduce density or shift species composition through either mechanical methods or prescribed burning in this project keeps the area on its current trajectory and increases the risk or large-scale stand replacement fire and epidemic insect outbreaks. However, the Plantation Maintenance and Summit and Reed Fire Restoration projects are current actions that will reduce stand density and shift species composition of the young, stand initiation stands on approximately 6,000 acres within Big Mosquito. These actions would reduce the impacts of a potential wildfire or insect outbreak on the stands treated, but would not treat mid and old forest structure. These treatments would not be widespread enough to effectively reduce the risk to mid and old forest structure across the project planning area. Alternative 2 Proposed Action Design Features and Mitigation Measures The vegetation and prescribed fire design measures are included in the silviculture prescription. This prescription includes a discussion of the general tree selection guidelines, a detailed discussion of each of the mechanical treatment methods and their respective tree selection guidelines, and a detailed discussion of the prescribed burning with mortality guidelines. There is one design measure included in the table below that includes limiting direct ignition during prescribed burning in the plantations until they have reached an average DBH of 7.0 inches. This design measure is intended to limit mortality from burning in these plantations and does not preclude prescribed fire backing into plantations that have a mean DBH of less than 7.0 inches. Table 14. Project design criteria Project design criteria Objective Applies to Source No direct ignition will occur in plantations until mean tree size is at least 7.0 DBH. Minimize tree mortality in plantations. All plantations in the project planning area. Direct and Indirect Effects Silviculture Treatments The Proposed Action proposes to mechanically treat approximately 9,400 acres of the uplands and 700 acres within RHCAs, as well as prescribe burn approximately 24,800 acres. Mechanical treatments include commercial thinning, free selection, understory removal, precommercial thinning with biomass removal, tree tipping, post and pole removal, riparian enhancement thinning and meadow enhancement thinning. Given these treatments, stand structure would shift with the proportion of young forest structure Page 34 of 48

35 decreasing and the proportion of old forest structure increasing over a 40 year time period. When comparing old forest structure after 40 years, the No Action Alternative (62%) and the Proposed Action alternative (61%) are predicting approximately the same proportion, however, for the Proposed Action alternative there is almost twice as much OFSS. When comparing density over 40 years, the Proposed Action predicts that density would be lower with approximately 44% of the project planning area within or below the Management Zone, as compared to approximately 13% for the No Action Alternative. Table 15. Structural stages for the Proposed Action Alternative within Big Mosquito Structure Existing Condition SI 13% 6% 0% SEOC 11% 22% 11% SECC 22% 11% 15% YFMS 13% 4% 2% UR 15% 23% 10% OFSS 4% 14% 22% OFMS 23% 20% 39% Figure 15. Photos illustrating potential post-treatment stand conditions for the Free Selection prescription in mixed conifer stands in the Big Mosquito project planning area Page 35 of 48

36 Figure 16. SDI ranges for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Figure 17. SDI ranges for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density The Proposed Action mechanically treats approximately 37% and prescribe burn approximately 84% of the Hot Dry and Warm Dry PAGs. Given these actions the species composition in all stands treated would continue to be predominantly ponderosa pine over time. Grand fir in the mixed conifer stands would predominantly be removed during mechanical treatments, and natural regeneration would be killed with prescribed burning. Collectively, these treatments would reduce the proportion of the Warm Dry Page 36 of 48

37 PAG that is above the Management Zone, which is approximately 20% in When comparing density over 40 years the Proposed Action alternative predicts that density would be lower given treatment, with approximately 60% of the Warm Dry PAG within or below the Management Zone and only approximately 20% for the No Action. Figure 18. SDI ranges for Warm Dry UF stands for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Figure 19. SDI ranges for Warm Dry UF stands for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Warm Dry PAG Structure and HRV Table 16 below displays how the Proposed Action alternative within the Warm Dry PAG compares to HRV through time. Over time OFMS would continue to be above HRV, increasing in abundance to approximately one third of the area, and OFSS would increase in abundance to be well within the HRV Page 37 of 48

38 range. There is a trend that after forty years the Warm Dry PAG would be deficient in young forest structure (SI and YFMS). When comparing structure over 40 years, both the No Action and Proposed Action tend to be deficient in young forest structure. However, the Proposed Action doubles the proportion of OFSS over time. Table 16. Warm Dry PAG HRV analysis for the Proposed Action Alternative Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 5-15% 9% 6% 1% SEOC 5-20% 7% 28% 17% SECC 1-10% 33% 13% 11% YFMS 5-25% 14% 5% 2% UR 1-10% 12% 15% 3% OFSS 15-55% 4% 15% 30% OFMS 5-20% 22% 19% 37% a Powell 1998 Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs Species Composition and Density The Proposed Action mechanically treats approximately 30% and prescribe burns approximately 68% of the Cool Moist and Cool Wet PAGs. Given these actions the species composition in all stands treated would continue to be predominantly early seral over time. Late seral species in these stands would be located in more moist areas and would be more aligned with their historical abundance. Late seral species would also predominantly be removed during mechanical treatments, and natural regeneration would be killed with prescribed burning. Collectively, these treatments would reduce the proportion of the Cool Moist PAG that is above the Management Zone, which is approximately 35% in When comparing density over 40 years the Proposed Action alternative predicts that density would be lower given treatment, with approximately 30% of the Cool Moist PAG within or below the Management Zone and only approximately 4% for the No Action. Page 38 of 48

39 Figure 20. SDI ranges for Cool Moist UF stands for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Figure 21. SDI ranges for Cool Moist UF stands for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Cool Moist PAG Structure and HRV Table 17 below displays how the Proposed Action alternative within the Cool Moist PAG compares to HRV through time. Over time OFMS would continue to be above HRV, increasing in abundance to approximately over half of the area, and OFSS would increase in abundance to be above HRV as well. There is a trend that after forty years the Cool Moist PAG would be deficient in young forest structure (SI, YFMS, and UR). When comparing structure over 40 years, both the No Action and Proposed Action tend to be deficient in young forest structure and tend to have an abundance of old forest structure. However, the Proposed Action doubles the proportion of OFSS over time. Page 39 of 48

40 Table 17. Cool Moist PAG HRV analysis for the Proposed Action Alternative Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 1-10% 8% 4% 0% SEOC 0-5% 19% 23% 7% SECC 5-25% 16% 14% 19% YFMS 40-60% 18% 5% 4% UR 5-25% 5% 12% 1% OFSS 0-5% 1% 10% 12% OFMS 10-30% 33% 31% 57% a Powell 1998 Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs Species Composition and Density The Proposed Action mechanically treats approximately 23% of the Cool Dry PAG and prescribe burns approximately 13% of the Cool Dry and Cold Dry PAGs. Given these actions the species composition in lodgepole pine stands treated would continue to be predominantly lodgepole pine due to the prolific nature of the species. However, other species that exist in these stands, including western larch, ponderosa pine, and Englemann spruce, would be left to grow and provide for natural regeneration. In the mixed conifer stands late seral species would predominantly be removed during mechanical treatments, and natural regeneration would be killed with prescribed burning. Collectively, these treatments slightly reduce the proportion of the Cold Dry PAG that is above the Management Zone, which is approximately 55% in When comparing density over 40 years the Proposed Action alternative predicts that density would be slightly lower given treatment, with approximately 8% within or below the Management Zone and only approximately 5% for the No Action. Figure 22. SDI ranges for Cold Dry UF stands for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2024 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Page 40 of 48

41 Figure 23. SDI ranges for Cold Dry UF stands for the Proposed Action Alternative in 2054 within the Big Mosquito project planning area Cold Dry PAG Structure and HRV Table 18 below displays how the Proposed Action alternative within the Cold Dry PAG compares to HRV through time. Over time OFSS would continue to be above HRV and OFMS would continue to be below HRV. There is a trend that after 40 years the Cold Dry PAG would be deficient in young forest structure (SI and YFMS). When comparing structure over 40 years, both the No Action and Proposed Action tend to be deficient in young forest structure and OFMS. There are no mechanical treatments proposed within Cold Dry OFMS and the decline from 2% OFMS in the No Action alternative to 1% in the Proposed Action alternative is due to mortality simulated in the model from prescribed burning. Table 18. Cold Dry PAG HRV analysis for the Proposed Action Alternative Structure HRV a Existing condition SI 1-20% 36% 10% 0% SEOC 0-5% 4% 3% 2% SECC 5-20% 4% 2% 25% YFMS 10-40% 1% 0% 2% UR 5-25% 45% 72% 53% OFSS 0-5% 8% 12% 16% OFMS 10-40% 2% 1% 1% a Powell 1998 Warm Moist and Warm Very Moist PAGs The Proposed Action mechanically treats approximately 22% of the Warm Moist PAG and prescribe burns approximately 100% of the Warm Moist and Very Warm Moist Dry PAGs. Given these actions the Page 41 of 48

42 species composition in all stands treated would continue to be predominantly ponderosa pine over time. Prescribed burning would likely stimulate shrub recruitment in these PAGs as well. Juniper Woodlands Given the Proposed Action juniper would be reduced from its current abundance and extent across the Big Mosquito project planning area. Young juniper within mechanical treatment units will generally be removed and will also be killed during prescribed burning. Aspen Stands The Proposed Action mechanically treats 96%, prescribe burns 10%, and fences 100% of the aspen stands within Big Mosquito. These actions would prevent browsing from cattle and wild ungulates, decrease conifer encroachment, increase sunlight to the soil, and stimulate sucker production. Fencing would increase the potential for aspen stands to double their current extent. These actions should improve aspen vigor and increase the extent of aspen within the Big Mosquito project planning area. Figure 24. Photos illustrating potential post-treatment aspen stand conditions in the Big Mosquito project planning area Mountain Mahogany Mountain mahogany would continue to be impacted by grazing. However, where mountain mahogany exists within mechanical treatment units, conifers in and around mountain mahogany bushes would be removed. Disturbance Processes When compared to the No Action alternative, the Proposed Action decreases stand densities and the proportion of late seral species across the project planning area. This would decrease the risk of insect outbreaks of western spruce budworm, mountain pine beetle, and western pine beetle. It would also decrease the effects of mistletoe, Indian paint fungus, armillaria and annosus. Mechanical treatments and prescribed burning are designed to develop the structure that could have been developed across the landscape given the fire regimes in Big Mosquito. Where fires historically burned very frequent with low intensity stands have been prescribed treatments that thin from below to raise the canopy base height and DBH of the stand and that leave predominantly early seral species. Where fires burned frequently with mixed severity stands have been prescribed treatments that reduce density by thinning throughout a diameter range and increase the proportion of early seral species. These treatments break up the landscape to reduce the risk that a stand replacing crown fire could be sustained over large areas. Page 42 of 48