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1 AFRICAN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INVENTORIES AND MITIGATION OPTIONS: FORESTRY, LAND-USE CHANGE, AND AGRICULTURE Johannesburg, South Africa 29 May - 2 June 1995 Edited by John F. Fitzgerald u.s. Country Studies Program, Washington, D.C., USA Barbara V. Braatz ICF Incorporated, Washington, D.C., USA Sandra Brown U.s. Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, Oregon, USA Augustine O. Isichei Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria Eric O. Odada University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenia Robert J. Scholes Division of Forest Science and Technology, CSIR, South Africa Sponsored by: United States Country Studies Program United Nations Environmental Programme Reprinted from Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Volume 38, Nos. 2-3, 1995 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht / Boston / London

2 A c.i.p. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN-13: DOl: / e-isbn-13: Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, P.O. Box 17,3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. Kluwer Academic Publishers incorporates the publishing programmes of D. Reidel, Martinus Nijhoff, Dr W. Junk and MTP Press. Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101 Philip Drive, Norwell, MA 02061, U.S.A. In all other countries, sold and distributed by KIuwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands. Cover design: Photograph of Earth from Apollo 17 Courtesy of U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved 1995 Kluwer Academic Publishers Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1995 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.

3 T ABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword... Preface Acknowledgments..... v vii ix PART 1. WORKSHOP SUMMARY STATEMENT B.v. BRAATZ, S. BROWN, A.O. ISICHEI, E.O. ODADA, RI. SCHOLES, Y. SOKONA, P. DRICHI, G. GASTON, R DELMAS, R HOLMES, S. AMOUS, R.S. MUYUNGI, A. DE JODE, and M. GffiBS African Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories and Mitigation Options: Forestry, Land-Use Change, and Agriculture... 3 PART II. INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT B. CALLANDER Scientific Aspects of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and National Greenhouse Gas Inventories M. SEKI and R CHRIST Selected International Efforts to Address Climate Change PART III. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INVENTORIES AND MITIGATION OPTIONS: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES S. BROWN and G. GASTON Use of Forest Inventories and Geographic Information Systems to Estimate Biomass Density of Tropical Forests: Application to Tropical Africa RI. SCHOLES Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vegetation Fires in Southern Africa R. DELMAS, I.P. LACAUX, and D. BROCARD Determination of Biomass Burning Emission Factors: Methods and Results R LEEMANS Determining the Global Significance of Local and Regional Mitigation Strategies: Setting the Scene with Global Integrated Assessment Models A. DEJODE Assessing National Livestock Populations for the Production of Methane Emission Inventories

4 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS S.I. CHRISTIE and R.I. SCHOLES Carbon Storage in Eucalyptus and Pine Plantations in South Africa G.P. VON MALTITZ and R.I. SCHOLES The Burning of Fuelwood in South Africa: When Is It Sustainable? D.L. KGATHI and P. ZHOU Biofuel Use Assessments in Africa: Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Mitigation Strategies ILUKOR and S.O. OLUKA Carbon-to-Nitrogen Ratios in Agricultural Residues PART Iv. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INVENTORIES: NATIONAL ASSESSMENTS AO. ISICHEI, J.I. MUOGHALU, EA AKEREDOLU, and O.A. AFOLABI Fuel Characteristics and Emissions from Biomass Burning and Land-Use Change in Nigeria Y. SOKONA Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory for Senegal, B.P.JALLOW Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture, Land-Use Change, and Forestry in the Gambia R.S. MUYUNGI and C. OMUJUNI Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Forestry, Land-Use Changes, and Agriculture in Tanzania List of Participants '

5 FOREWORD The ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) is the stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, but a number of important problems remain to be solved before a target stabilization level can be quantitatively specified. What can be calculated with some confidence is that current emissions from human activities are likely to lead to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases over coming decades or even centuries. Whatever route is eventually chosen to meet the Convention's ultimate objective, systematic quantification of present day anthropogenic emissions, using comparable methods, is a necessary basis for international agreements on future emissions. Once compiled, a national greenhouse gas inventory serves as a valuable tool within the context of the FCCC. It allows each country to place its own emissions within the larger picture of global emissions, and provides a baseline against which its own future emissions can be compared. It also provides a basis for the formulation of a national greenhouse gas mitigation policy. Furthermore, experience shows-and the studies reported here are no exception-that compilation of the inventory brings additional benefits, including improved national statistics, increased awareness of the issues surrounding climate change among government and industry, and improved cooperation between countries with similar patterns of greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. Country Studies Program and the United Nations Environment Programmel Global Environment Facility (UNEP/GEF) Country Case Studies Project use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories as their standard inventory methodology. The guidelines currently represent the only inventory methodology specifically accepted by the parties to the FCCC. Developed over three years under a program coordinated jointly by IPCC, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the International Energy Agency (lea), the guidelines provide an internationally accepted methodology for quantifying emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Methods and default data contained in the guidelines are based on wide international consultation and on the best information available in the scientific and technical literature. Nevertheless, the development of the guidelines must be seen as an ongoing process, and the studies reported in this workshop represent searching tests of the practical applicability of the guidelines as well as important sources of guidance for future improvements. Under the IPCC guidelines, the basic approach for calculating emissions of a particular gas from a particular sector or sub-sector is simple in concept: Emissions = Activity Level x Emission Factor Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 38: v-vi, 1995.

6 vi FOREWORD However, determining activity levels and emission factors can present difficulties. A particular feature of greenhouse gas emissions in Africa is the high proportion that comes from agriculture, land-use change, and other area sources, precisely the categories that present the greatest practical difficulties for inventory calculations. Many of the activity data-for example, area of savanna burned per year--either do not exist or must be derived from related statistics, or even from anecdotal evidence. Experimentally based emission factors specific to a particular region or system are scarce, so those factors that are known are often applied in places that may be beyond their region of validity. Compilation of a national greenhouse gas inventory, nowhere easy, thus presents particular problems for countries in Africa. Papers presented in this volume demonstrate a considerable degree of tenacity in extracting activity data from disparate sources, and also report important progress in the exploitation of remote sensing and in the improved quantification of emission factors. Finally, it is very important to acknowledge the coordinating and facilitating role played by the various country study programs related to the Climate Convention, including the U.S. Country Studies Program and the UNEP/GEF Country Case Studies Project. Through input of resources and through collaborative efforts, these programs supported the original development of the IPCC guidelines, helped to achieve their wide international acceptance, and contributed to their final publication. In addition, country case study programs that have used the IPCC methodology have also been instrumental in delivering the IPCC manuals, and providing training in their use, to a large number of developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The substantial progress in the compilation of national greenhouse gas inventories that was evident in the Johannesburg workshop represents some of the rewards of these extensive international efforts. Bruce A. Callander Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Meteorological Office, Hadley Climate Centre London Road, Bracknell RG12 2SY, United Kingdom

7 PREFACE In an effort to address greenhouse gas emission inventory development and emissions mitigation in an African context, the U.S. Country Studies Program and the United Nations Environment Programme/Global Environment Facility Country Case Studies Project cosponsored a workshop held near Johannesburg, South Africa from May 29 to June 2, The workshop was attended by sixty-four scientists and policy experts from eighteen African and five non-african nations. Papers were presented on methodological and scientific aspects of emission estimation and mitigation assessment, on the results of national inventory and mitigation analyses, and on resource and programmatic issues. In addition, three independent working groups were formed to discuss and make recommendations on (1) Forestry and Land-Use Change, (2) Vegetation Burning, and (3) Livestock. This volume is composed of thirteen papers and two short communications in four sections. Part I, the Workshop Summary Statement, presents the main conclusions of discussions in plenary and in working groups, followed by the three working group summaries. Part II, International Context, presents two papers that describe important scientific aspects of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and outline a number of significant international efforts to address climate change. Papers in Part III, Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories and Mitigation Options: Methodological Issues, and Part IV, Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories: National Assessments, discuss methodological and scientific issues associated with inventory assessment and report the experiences of some workshop participants in conducting greenhouse gas emission in ventories in Africa. It is hoped that this volume, and the workshop from which it was derived, will stimulate future interest in the climate change issues that are relevant to Africa and encourage further African involvement in developing greenhouse gas emission inventories and mitigation assessments in support of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. John F. Fitzgerald Barbara V. Braatz Sandra Brown Augustine O. Isichei Eric O. Odada Robert J. Scholes Environmental Monitoring and Assessment38: vii, 1995.

8 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We wish to acknowledge with sincere thanks all of the workshop participants, whose hard work and enthusiasm made this publication possible. Their ideas, knowledge, and insights provide the substance of this book. We are grateful to the U.S. Country Studies Program (U.S. CSP) and the United Nations Environment Programme/Global Environment Facility Country Case Studies Project (UNEP) for their financial support of the workshop. From the funding organizations, we would particularly like to thank Michael Short (UNEP) for his enthusiastic participation in the organization of this workshop. We also wish to acknowledge Robert Dixon of the U.S. CSP for his helpful comments and direction throughout the workshop process. The information in this document has been subjected to technical peer review, but does not necessarily reflect the official views of any governmental or intergovernmental body. For their untiring effort in organizing and coordinating the workshop, we would like to thank Rebecca Holmes and Susan Barvenik of ICF Incorporated, and Dawn Middleton, Mama ven der Merwe, Cathy Bailey, Shane Abbott, and Minoda Mathura of Forestek, CSIR. We thank William Driscoll of ICF Incorporated for his invaluable editorial assistance and for coordinating the peer review process. The front cover design was developed by John Paul McCarty (ICF Incorporated). Final formatting and production of this volume were completed with support from Kimmie Shreve-Hilten, Joan Myers, and the Publications Department of Enviro-Management & Research, Incorporated and Emily Barnett, Ellie Stewart, and Jim Woldahl (ICF Incorporated). We also thank Mariette de Jong of Kluwer Academic Publishers for her publication assistance. John F. Fitzgerald Barbara V. Braatz Sandra Brown Augustine O. Isichei Eric O. Odada Robert J. Scholes Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 38: ix, 1995.