Economic Impacts and Decision Making for Urban & Community Forests impacted by EAB

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1 Economic Impacts and Decision Making for Urban & Community Forests impacted by EAB Dr. Jason Grabosky Pam Zipse, CTE #426 Rutgers University, SEBS 1

2 EAB Confirmed in NJ Please Note: This map indicates ash in forests. It does not represent ash trees on streets or planted in parks or backyards. NJDA NJSFS USDA-APHIS-PPQ Rutgers University NJ s EAB Task Force United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service 2

3 NJ s EAB Task Force Rutgers University Where is the problem A group of students has taken on the task of extracting ash tree data from 59 municipal street tree inventories shared with Rutgers over the last ten years. About 50 of these inventories had usable data. Rutgers is working with NJSFS and NJDA to develop plans for a rapid inventory of ash in locations where we expect ash but have no data. NJ s EAB Task Force Rutgers University Where is the problem Last October, representatives of 20 NJ municipalities attended an inventory workshop at the NJ Shade Tree Federation Annual Conference. These municipalities were asked to conduct their own rapid ash survey, and to share the results with Rutgers and NJSFS. We hope to have data from these surveys this spring and summer. 3

4 EAB Confirmed in NJ Municipalities in white are the locations where EAB has been confirmed. Municipalities in blue are within a 12 mile radius of the confirmed locations. These municipalities will be targeted for EAB traps. Map courtesy of Joseph Zoltowski, NJDA Economic Impact of EAB It is estimated that 80% of the costs related to EAB will be borne by municipal governments and homeowners. June 2006 Urban Ash Trees Pre-EAB Photos by D. Herms, Ohio State University August 2009 Urban Ash Trees Post-EAB 4

5 Economic Impact of EAB Not Good! EAB has killed tens of millions of trees across the United States. EAB is very difficult to detect in early stages of infestation. Ash trees will seem fine, then they will be dead. EAB Death Curve Rainbow Treecare Scientific Advancements 5

6 EAB Death Curve EAB Death Curve In the first years of infestation, the tree will probably look fine. Your first indication of trouble will likely be increased woodpecker activity. 6

7 EAB Death Curve Larvae feed on the vascular tissue beneath the bark and prevent transport of water and nutrients. This causes rapid tree death once larval populations build up. Economic Impact of EAB Most, probably all, untreated ash trees will die. Dead ash trees will dry out and become brittle very quickly. This makes the trees more dangerous, and therefore more expensive, to remove. 7

8 Economic Impact of EAB EAB is a near cambium feeder impact to the wood does not extend far beneath the bark. So EAB infestation does not affect the merchantability of the wood. Unless the tree dies and the wood becomes dry and brittle before the tree is removed. Economic Impact of EAB The Purdue Cost Calculator recommends that you begin management when EAB is found within 15 miles of your location. Municipalities in blue are within a 12 mile radius of the confirmed locations. Map courtesy of Joseph Zoltowski, NJDA 8

9 Economic Impact of EAB Even if ash makes up only a small percentage of your municipal tree resource are you prepared to remove them all in just a couple years? EAB Decision-Making You need a Plan! Now! How many ash trees do you have? Where are they, exactly? How big are they? What do you want to do with them? Remove, Replace, Treat which ones? 9

10 Developed by Purdue University Entomologist Cliff Sadof to help cities find the most cost effective solutions for dealing with EAB. Google Purdue EAB cost calculator. 10

11 To run the calculator you will need: An inventory of the number and size of ash trees An estimate of costs for removing and treating trees based on the size of each tree. An estimate of costs for replacing each ash tree that is removed. The calculator has default values, but you will want to adjust these for NJ, ideally for your specific location Forest managers have 3 options available for managing emerald ash borer: Treat ash trees with insecticides Remove ash trees Replace ash trees with resistant trees The calculator allows you to model several different treatment and removal combinations and evaluate the every year and cumulative costs of each. 11

12 Develop a strategy that makes sense for your municipality Use the calculator to compare the approximate short and long term costs associated with different management strategies Some ideas to consider 12

13 The default diameter classes are the same as the defaults used by i-tree 13

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16 NJ Adjusted Costs Tree Removal Arborists from NJAISA and NJ Society of CTE were surveyed and provided anonymous cost estimates for ash tree removals by diameter class. These estimates were divided into North, Central, and South regions of NJ by Counties. The resulting data was adjusted to provide a cost per inch and applied to the midpoint of each diameter class. NJ Adjusted Costs Variable Area Mean S E Mean 6"-9" * * 10"-13" * * 14"-16" * * 17"-20" * * 21"-23" * * 24"-26" * * We will use these cost estimates along with municipal inventory data to provide examples of what municipal costs could be, and to make a case for the importance of planning, and taking action now. We will encourage municipalities to get cost quotes specific to their resource, and to use those in the calculator for their decisionmaking purposes. 27"-30" * * 16

17 NJ Adjusted Costs Replacement Planting NJ Adjusted Costs We are currently using $ for a 2-3 caliper NON-HOST replacement tree Municipalities should use local tree planting costs The importance of tree replacement will differ depending on the percentage of ash in your municipal tree canopy 17

18 NJ Adjusted Costs Treatment Options Must be entered as a cost per diameter inch Will vary based on the insecticide used The Purdue Cost Calculator assumes every year treatment during the aggressive phase (first 12 years) We used a cost of $5.00 / inch for our examples based on a $10.00/inch treatment of emamectin benzoate every other year Get local cost quotes based on your specific plan EAB Decision-Making There is no one correct answer. Do something! 18

19 EAB Decision-Making Preventive treatment is possible! Treatments are most effective if they are started before the tree is showing signs of infestation Once 30% or more of the crown is showing signs of infestation, it is probably too late EAB Decision-Making The wave of EAB invasion builds in intensity after it begins damaging trees. At the cusp of the invasion wave damage is difficult to notice. Indeed most urban forests cities are lucky to find EAB when 4 or 8% of the trees are infected. This leaves 4-5 years until all ash trees are damaged beyond the point where they can be protected. During the Cusp and Crest Phase of the invasion management needs to be very aggressive because EAB populations are high 19

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22 EAB Decision-Making We used the Princeton old inventory data to run several scenarios using the Purdue Cost Calculator. We will do this for several municipalities in an attempt to estimate the potential overall cost to municipalities in NJ 22

23 EAB Decision-Making Princeton Example 196 of the 5,347 trees in the Princeton inventory were ash species This is approximately 3.7% of their overall street tree resource 23

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29 Take Home Message: Keep your eyes open! This will impact you, you need to have a plan. In many communities, you need to begin acting on that plan now. Map courtesy of Joseph Zoltowski, NJDA 29

30 Report signs of the beetle to the New Jersey Department of Agriculture at Any Questions Thank You Jason: , Pam: , 30