Forest Sector Modeling State of the Art: Asia

Transcription

1 Forest Sector Modeling State of the Art: Asia Forest Sector Modeling Conference in Seattle 2008 Hiroyasu Oka and Satoshi Tachibana Forestry and Forest Products Research y Institute, Japan

2 Development of Forest Sector Models in Asia Japan China Republic of Korea Others

3 Japan FFPRI published a book on forest sector modeling and outlook in Dec (in Japanese) Modeling in relation to global l forest products market. Forest products demand model. Forest resources model. dl Forest work force model. Forest labor productivity it model. dl Forest management labor demand model. Forested villages population model.

4 Development of world forest products model We are updating World Forest Products Model (WFPM) to estimate trends and prospects of the world forest resources and forest products market. WFPM is an integrated forest sector model which covers forest resources, roundwood production, manufacturing, international trade, and consumption of forest products in major countries and regions of the world. WFPM owes a lot on earlier studies of the GTM and GFPM as well as the World Food Model. 4

5 Feature of the Model l(1) Partial equilibrium lb model dlby which only the forest and forest products market are targeted. Multi commodity model by which market clearing prices of multi commodity that relates with each other are determined simultaneously. Multi regional world model by which the entire world is divided into regions and trade of all regions is determined simultaneously. Non spatial model by which differences such as the transportation expense between various places and preference as trade partner are not considered.

6 Feature of the Model l(2) Net trade model: The amount of import and amount of export are not calculated separately. Model with nonlinear simultaneous equations (mainly using elasticity i of exponential il function) by which approximation solution are obtained. Dynamic model to simulate change over time by using lagged variables. Integrated model: Estimates of some parameters are done outside of the model. Policy simulation model: The effects of change in policy such as re afforestation rates are analyzed.

7 Modeling of Forest Resources and Log Production The stock change in the forest brings the change in log supply potential. The stock change is determined by: Stock change=forest Area*MAI(natural, planted) Initial stock*disaster damage rate Log production*volume impact factor (Industrial roundwood, Woodfuels) For the countries without annual increment data, we tentatively assumed; 0 Annual damage rate (%) 5 1 MAI(natural and protective forests) 5 (m3/ha/yr) 1.25 Impact factor(industrial roundwood) 5 5 (m3/m3) 3) 0 Impact factor(woodfuels) 1 (m3/m3)

8 Results of estimation on regional stock change relations: Africa and Asia Africa (m3/ha/yr) Max Min Asia (m3/ha/yr) Max Min Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI, volume of logging impact, and damaged volume for major regions of the world. 8

9 Results of estimation on regional stock change relations: Europe and Russia Europe (ex Russia, m3/ha/yr) Max Min Russia (m3/ha/yr) Max 0.20 Min Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI, volume of logging impact, and damaged d volume for major regions of the world. 9

10 Results of estimation on regional stock change relations: Americas Latin America (m3/ha/yr) North America (m3/ha/yr) Max Min Max Min Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI, volume of logging impact, and damaged volume for major regions of the world. 10

11 Results of estimation on regional stock change relations: Oceania and the World Oceania (m3/ha/yr) Max Min World (m3/ha/yr) Max 1.50 Min Annual increment Logging impact Disaster damage Stock change Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI, volume of logging impacts, and damaged volume of world average.

12 Discussion on the stock change relations by major regions In the North America and Europe except Russia, large proportion of annual increment is felled by logging, while growing stock is increasing. In Africa, Asia and in Latin America, larger volume might be damaged by disasters than by logging impacts, and resulted in decrease of growing gstock. 12

13 Modeling of Demand The demand for the forest products expand by economic growth. The amount of industrial roundwood demand to produce products is determined by the amount of output of the product (except for pulp and paper). The amount of supply and demand of the woodfuel is determined by the change in population and the resource stock.

14 Sawnwood Resource Roundwood, Material Supply Plywood Board World Demand and Supply, World Price Pulp & Paper Relationship of Blocks

15 t-1 Hazard (Survival Rate) Forest Stock Production Potential c Plantation Annual Increment c Fuelwood Production t-1 Population Planted Forest Area c c Natural Forest Area c Roundwood Production t-1 Forest Resource Block to (from) Other Block

16 Production Potential e Roundwood Production Roundwood Tariff e Roundwood Net Trade Roundwood Domestic Price GDP Roundwood World Price Roundwood Demand e Other Ind.Rndwd Demand Roundwood Supply for Sawnwood e Roundwood Supply for Plywood e Roundwood Supply for Board e Roundwood Supply for Pulp e Relative Price of Roundwood for Sawnwood Relative Price of Roundwood for Plywood Relative Price of Roundwood for Board Relative Price of Roundwood for Pulp Roundwood Supply Block

17 Sawnwood Tariff Sawnwood Domestic Price Sawnwood World Price e Roundwood Supply for Sawnwood Sawnwood Production Sawnwood Demand Sawnwood to Roundwood I/O coefficient c Sawnwood Net Trade e GDP Sawnwood Block (same for Plywood and Board Block)

18 Pulp Tariff Pulp World Price Roundwood Supply for Pulp c Pulp Production Pulp Domestic Price e Pulp Net Trade Pulp Demand Pulp to Paper Fraction c Pulp to Roundwood I/O coefficient e Paper Production e Paper Domestic Price Paper Net Trade Paper World Price e Paper Demand e Paper Tariff Pulp & Paper Block GDP

19 Model Equations ORDER (for Each Year) ITEM VARIABLE UNIT EQUATION (NOTICE: X_1 X at t-1) PARAMETER Predetermined 1 GDP USD YY = YY_1*(1+#1) #1: GDP growth rate Variables 2 Natural Forest Area ha FN = FN_1-RWSS_1*FI_1*#1 #1: initial coefficient 3 Planted Forest Area ha FP = FP_1+#1 #1: Annual Change in Planted Forest Area (ha) 4 Annual Growth of Forest Stock m3/yr RG = FN_1*#1+FP_1*#2 #1: Annual Growth of Natural Forest (m3/ha/yr) #2: Annual Growth of Planted Forest (m3/ha/yr) V #1: Harvest Impact Factor of Fuelwood (ha/m3) 5 Forest Stock m3 RS = RS_1*#3+(RG-RWMS_1*#1-RWSS_1*#2) #2: Harvest Impact Factor of Industrial Roundwood (ha/m3) #3: Survival Rate (from Hazard) 6 Area Impact Factor of Natural Forest FI = FI_1*FN/FN_1*RS_1/RS 7 PA Ratio of Wood Pulp consumption to Paper production MS = MS_1+#1 #1: Annual Change of the fraction 8 RW Demand for Fuelwood m3 MS = PO*RS^#1*c0 #1:ForestStockElasticity(=00or05or10) (= ) PO: Poplulation 9 RW Demand for Other Industrial Roundwood m3 MM = YY^#1*RS^#2*c0 #1: GDP Elasticity #2: Forest Stock Elasticity (=0.5 or 1.0 or 2.0) WHILE (until conversion) { FOR Item(PA,PU,BD,PN,SW,RW) { WHILE ( ΣNE >0) { 10 all Trade Price USD PT = PW+MG PW: World Price MG: PW minus PT (fixed value) 11 all [EXPORTER] Domestic Price USD PD = PT [IMPORTER] Domestic Price PD = PT*(1+TR) TR: Tarrif Rate V 12 RW Production of Industrial Roundwood d m3 SS = PD^#1*RS^#2*c0 #1: Price Elasticity it [JP] (Production of Industrial Roundwood) SS = PK^#1*RS^#2*c0 #2: Forest Stock Elasticity (=0.5 or 1.0 or 2.0) 13 SW,PN,BD,PU Industrial Roundwood Allocated to Products m3 or MT MM = RWDD_1*(PD/RWPD)^#1*c0 #1: Relative Price Elasticity [JP] (Domestic Industrial Roundwood) MK = RWDK_1*(PD/RWPK)^#1*c0 (Imported Industrial Roundwood) MZ = RWDZ_1*(PD/RWPD)^#1*c0 MM = MK+MZ 14 SW,PN,BD,PU Producttion of Forest Products m3 or MT SS = MM/#1 #1: I/O coefficient (Products Production / Roundwood Consumption) 15 PA Production of Paper MT SS = PD^#1*PUPD^#2*c0 #1: Price Elasticity #2: Elasticity to Pulp Price 16 SW,PN,BD,PA Demand for Forest Products m3 or MT DD = YY^#1*PD^#2*c0 #1: GDP Elasticity #2: Price Elasticity 17 PU Demand for Pulp MT DD = PASS*PAMS 18 RW Demand for Industrial Roundwood m3 DD = RWMM+SWMM+PNMM+BDMM+PUMM [JP] (Demand for Domestic Industrial Roundwood) DK = RWMM+SWMK+PNMK+BDMK+PUMK [JP] (Demand for Imported Industrial Roundwood) DZ = SWMZ+PNMZ+BDMZ+PUMZ 19 all Net Export m3 or MT NE = SS-DD 20 RW [JP] [JP] (Domestic Price of Industrial Roundwood) USD PK <--- PK at RWSS = RWDK 21 all World Price USD PW <--- minimize ΣNE } } }

20 Major difference with GFPM and GTM Allocation of IndRoundwood to end products. MM j i,j,t = RWDD j,t 1.(PD i,j,t / RWPD j,t ) α MMi,j.c MMi,j RWDD j,t : Total Demand for IndRndwd PD i,j,t : Products Price RWPD j,t : IndRndwd Price α MMi,j : Relative Price Elasticity c MMi,j : constant This system of equations model include elasticity of log supply for end products with respect to relative price of products to the price of logs. It is often difficult to estimate this relative price elasticity with expected sign and statistical significance. This difficulty is comparable to the difficulty in determining regional difference in the expansion of manufacturing capacity in the GFPM.

21 World models are; Useful in estimating the potential of timber and other fiber supply and long term forest products demand d at the global l level. But not yet sophisticated enough to estimate future equilibrium price and competitive power of industries in each country so far.

22 Asia specific findings Demand for woodpulp in China is rapidly increasing as a result of increase in paper production. Apparent consumption of woodpulp per unit amount of paper production had also increased substantially from 0.14 in 1996 to 0.27 in 2001, and then have gradually decreased to 0.22 in (Input of non wood fiber pulp per unit amount of paper production has been substantially decreasing and input of recovered paper has been rapidly increasing in the same period. See the next slide.) Forest products consumption per capita in India is rapidly increasing but is still quite small compared to other countries. It was about 1/5 of world average for lumber and less than 1/10 for paper in 2005 (calculated from FAOSTAT).

23 ton/ton 1.00 Input of Materials for Paper and Paper Board Production in China (based on FAOSTAT Feb.2008) Woodpulp/Paper 0.40 OtherFiber/Paper Recovered/Paper

24 Japan: Forest Products Demand Model Forestry Agency have published forest sector outlook of Japan several times since 1980s Forest products demand model used by the Japanese government in the late 1980s and 1990s had wood processing capacity as a determinant of demand for logs. Increase of end products imports diminished the power of the model. About 80% of lumber is used for construction in Japan. Demand for lumber depend largely on floor area of housing starts, and the price elasticity of demand is low. Income elasticity of demand for paper used to be close to 1.0 but its demand seems to have stopped increasing recently in Japan as well as in some other high consumption countries. i (see the slide ld coming later)

25 Trends in forest products consumption in log equivalent Mln m Sawnwood Pulp Plywood Year

26 Million ton Apparent consumption of paper and paperboard by major regions North America: Asia: Europe: China Japan

27 Japan: Forest Resources and Timber Supply Model Timber supply model used by the Japanese government in the 1980s and 1990s based on the gentan probability model, which originally assumed that felling rates of the stands of each age class do not change over time (T. Suzuki). Gentan probability model was modified to allow for the change in commercial forest area depending on the level of timber price (M. Amano and I. Noda). Recent development in Forest Age Distribution Assessment System considers age class distribution or existing area of elder stands as an additional determinant of felling rate (H. Oka and H. Kuboyama ).

28 Trends and prospects of Cryptomeria plantations by age class Mln ha Year Rates of felling and planting are low, and the forest will become old. 1-20

29 Historical Industrial Roundwood Production in Japan (Mm3) 60 Estimated Industrial Roundwood Production Total

30 Japan: Forest Work Force Model A large proportion of workers in forestry are aged and is going to retire in a decade or two. Trends in the work force in forestry by age class 250, , , , , Year

31 Japan: Labor Productivity Model Improvement of labor productivity in forestry was slow in Japan. But it is improving recently and the trend show that it will be almost doubled d in 20 years (H. Kanomata). Improvement of labor productivity it has been achieved by the development of forest roads and machines, and by increased volume per tree and per area.

32 Forest Management/ Labor Demand Model A system dynamics model has been developed to simulate the possible combinations of changes in timber production, work force, and labor productivity (H. Noda). Production of timber = Logging work force * Labor productivity Demand for replanting labor = Replanting area * Labor productivity in planting

33 Japan: Forested Villages Population Model Sustainability of forest based communities is an important policy objective. Results of cohort analysis showed that forested village population in Japan decreases from 4.5 million in 2000 to million in 2030, which may have significant impacts on forest management.

34 Prominent works in Republic of Korea Topics and Methodology in the field of FSM Econometric studies on demand and supply of logs and wood products, and imports in Korea since 1980s National Forest Research Institute studies the trend and long term outlook for Korean forest sector (1998, 2007). The latest National Forest Program started in 2008 is the first national program of ROK based on the mathematical forest sector model.

35 Prominent works in China Topics and Methodology in the field of FSM Timber consumption structure and forecasts. Research on timber demand and supply forecast started in 1983 Forest resource inventory based on systematic sampling has been published periodically.

36 Major challenges at present and in the future FSM studies in Asia Major research funds for forest sector models are related with global warming issues including carbon cycle and REDD, and illegal logging issues. In many countries of Asia, statistics on forest resources and forest products are not reliable or non existent. it t International coordination in forest sector study is weak in Asia, compared to Europe and Americas. Advancement of international coordination is necessary because the forest sector of the region is closely related and the relation is getting deeper and deeper.