How Much Restoration & Where? Using structured decision making to turn landscape priorities into efficient adaptation strategies in the Ozarks

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1 How Much Restoration & Where? Using structured decision making to turn landscape priorities into efficient adaptation strategies in the Ozarks D. Todd Jones-Farrand Thomas W. Bonnot Replace this box with key image to introduce talk s scope, importance, or background NCER 21 April 2016

2 Steering Committee State Wildlife Agencies AL DCNR, AGFC, FFWCC, KDFWR, LDWF, MDWFP, MDC, ODWC, TWRA, TPWD Federal Agencies NOAA, NPS, USACE, USFWS, USFS, USGS NGOs DU, NBCI, TNC (ABC, TCF) Universities MS State, (Auburn)

3 The GCPO aims to define, design & deliver landscapes capable of sustaining desired natural and cultural resources

4 Science Delivery Science

5 Elements of the Problem Large Region Restoration on private lands Complexity Cumulative impacts/responses Conflicting objectives Uncertainty Present & Future changes Ambiguity Sustainable, landscapes, etc. Discontinuity Data doesn t match objectives

6 Solutions to the Problem Clear Objectives What & How much Transparent Assumptions Species-habitat relationships Current conditions Expected changes Strategic Framework Learn by doing Structured Decision Making & Scenario Modeling

7 What is Structured Decision Making? A formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense. -Ralph Keeney, 1982

8 PrOACT Trigger Problem Decide & Take Action Objectives Multiple Species SDM Analysis Toolkit Tradeoffs & Optimization Alternatives Strategies & Scenarios Uncertainty: Climate Change? Land use Change? Funding? Consequences Modeling Toolkit

9 Moving towards Proactive Conservation For complex decisions with substantial uncertainty, scenario modeling provides a way to evaluate alternative sets of actions OBJECTIVES ALTERNATIVES Portfolio 1 Portfolio Portfolio n Species Species : : Species n Time Cost

10 Moving towards Proactive Conservation Strategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project) DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems

11 Moving towards Proactive Conservation Strategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project) DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems Landscape Prioritization

12 Ozark Highlands CCS pilot project used a Rule Set

13 Rule 6: Is the catchment a high priority?

14 Repeat for 9 Forested Habitat Types & Inform with CHJV Habitat Objectives

15 Moving towards Proactive Conservation Strategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project) DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems Landscape Prioritization Species Models & Future Projections

16 Landscape-based Regional Population Models 1. Regional growth depends on processes occurring across all scales! 900 m 2 >100,000 s km 2 2. Planner s Paradox Translating regional goals into local actions requires understanding the effects of local actions on regional growth

17 Carrying Capacity and Abundance Productivity Dispersal Cell-level movements Habitat Dependent Distance Dependent

18 Abundance Abundance 800, , , , , , ,000 50, % BBS BBS -0.5 % Abundance (MIllions) % BBS Year

19 Conservation Scenarios Habitat Restoration Random NPS/Todd Edgar Protected Areas North Central Region Forest Management Guide

20 Conservation Needs to be Strategic 400, ,000 Habitat Restoration Protected Afforestation Strategic PRAW Abundance 300, , , , ,000 50,000 Random Random Year Year

21 Moving towards Proactive Conservation Strategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project) DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems Landscape Prioritization Species Models & Future Projections

22 Process-based Approaches We have projections of climate We know how forests grow Species habitat Factors that affect reproduction and survival Movements and dispersal Climate Model Simulated Landscapes Population Growth

23 Landscapes & Forest Processes Climate Model Temperature Precipitation Solar radiation Ecosystem Model Location Tree vital rates Climate Soil characteristics Landscape Model Tree establishment, growth Seed dispersal Vegetative reproduction Longevity Shade tolerance Fire tolerance Disturbance regime Management regime

24 Landscapes & Forests under climate change Sugar maple White oak % VARIATION Short term Midterm Longterm Extinction Colonization Persistence Succession Climate Harvest Climate*Harvest

25 Climate change impacts on Wood Thrush Distribution Juan Zamora Population Size Abundance (females) 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Year

26 Climate change impacts on Prairie Warblers Distribution Population Size Climate Scenario Current CGCM.T47 (Moderate) GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)

27 Moving towards Proactive Conservation Strategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project) DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems Landscape Prioritization Species Models & Future Projections Adaptation Strategies evaluated in terms of sustainable wildlife populations

28 Comprehensive Conservation Strategy CHJV Acreage Targets ( 3 million ac) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Protected Areas Only Protected and Private Areas Acres 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Year Year

29 Comprehensive Conservation Strategy Managed lands - Public Managed lands - Private Developed lands Likely Developed lands

30 Managed lands in 2100 Protected Only Managed lands - Public Managed lands - Private Developed lands Likely Developed lands Private and Protected

31 Prairie Warbler without CCS Climate Scenario Current CGCM3.T47 (Moderate) GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)

32 Prairie Warbler with CCS under Extreme Climate Change Conservation Scenario Base Private and Protected-Full Private and Protected-Half Protected - Full Protected - Half

33 Wood Thrush without CCS Climate Scenario Current CGCM3.T47 (Moderate) GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)

34 Wood Thrush with CCS under Extreme Climate Change Conservation Scenario Base Private and Protected-Full Private and Protected-Half Protected - Full Protected - Half

35 Multiple species and Multiple Climates. 40% Risk of population declining by half through 2100 Wood Thrush Prairie Warbler 30% Risk 20% 10% 0% Base Full Half Full Half Private and Protected Protected

36 Moving towards Proactive Conservation Strategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project) DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems Landscape Prioritization Species Models & Future Projections Adaptation Strategies evaluated in terms of sustainable wildlife populations Tradeoffs within & among habitat systems