REDD Methodology Module. Estimation of emissions from activity shifting for avoided unplanned deforestation

Transcription

1 REDD Methodology Module Estimation of emissions from activity shifting for avoided unplanned deforestation Version 1.0 April 2009 I. SCOPE, APPLICABILITY, DATA REQUIREMENT AND OUTPUT PARAMETERS Scope This module provides methods for estimating displacement of unplanned deforestation (leakage due to activity shifting). Applicability conditions This module is applicable for estimating carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions related to the displacement of activities that cause a conversion of forest land to non-forest land due to avoided unplanned deforestation in the project area. Where the displaced activities are related to timber extraction in the baseline, the Module Estimation of emissions from market effects leakage (LK-M) shall be used. The forest landscape configuration can be either mosaic or frontier. Data requirements A projection of the rate and location of unplanned baseline deforestation as well as an analysis of agents and drivers of deforestation must be available to apply this module. This module calls upon the following other VCS-approved Modules and Tools: CP-A CP-B CP-D Estimation of carbon s and changes in carbon s in the aboveground biomass carbon pool Version 1.0 Estimation of carbon s and changes in carbon s in the belowground biomass carbon pool Version 1.0 Estimation of carbon s and changes in carbon s in the deadwood carbon pool Version 1.0 CP-L Estimation of carbon s in the litter carbon pool Version 1.0 CP-S Estimation of carbon s in the soil organic carbon pool Version 1.0 CP-W Estimation of carbon s and changes in carbon s in the wood products carbon pool Version 1.0 1

2 LK-DFW Estimation of emissions from displacement of fuel wood extraction Version 1.0 BL-UP Estimation of baseline carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions from unplanned deforestation Version 1.0 BL-UR Estimation of the baseline rate of unplanned deforestation Version 1.0 BL-UL Location and quantification of the threat of unplanned baseline deforestation - Version 1.0 LK-ME Estimation of emissions from market-effects leakage Version 1.0 REDD-MF REDD Methodology Framework Version 1.0 A/R CDM-approved Tools: Tool for estimation of GHG emissions related to displacement of grazing activities in A/R CDM project activities. Reforestation or afforestation of land currently under agricultural use - AR-AM0004, Section on Estimation of leakage due to conversion of land to crop land, based on area of conversion. Calculation of GHG emissions due to leakage from increased use of non-renewable woody biomass attributable to an A/R CDM project activity. Output parameters This module provides methods to determine the following parameter: Parameter SI Unit Description ΔC LK-AS,unplanned t CO 2 -e carbon changes due to activity shifting from avoided unplanned deforestation GHG LK-AS,unplanned t CO2-e greenhouse gas emissions due to activity shifting from avoided unplanned deforestation II. PROCEDURE Activities that deforestation agents would implement inside the project area in the absence of the REDD project activity could be displaced outside the project boundary as a consequence of the implementation of the REDD project activity. Where this displacement of activities increases the rate of deforestation and forest degradation or decreases the rate of growth in forests outside the project boundary, the related carbon changes and non-co 2 emissions must be estimated and counted as leakage. Two different groups of deforestation agents could be displaced: 2

3 a) Local deforestation agents living inside or near the project area since the start of the REDD project activity. This will be the main agent group in most cases of mosaic deforestation. The risk of displacing the baseline activities of local agent groups must be addressed in the design of the REDD project activity using one or both of the following two approaches: Exclusion from the project area of the forest locations that are likely to be deforested, degraded or otherwise impacted by these groups during the implementation of the REDD project activity. Changes in the rate of deforestation, forest degradation and carbon enhancement in these areas, compared to the non-project case, must be counted as leakage; and Implementation of leakage prevention measures, such as the creation of alternative sources of fuel-wood, employment, and sustainable livelihoods. Where the REDD project activity is likely to displace the baseline activities of local groups, the methods described in Step 1 of this module must be used to estimate the GHG impacts. b) Immigrant deforestation agents expected to encroach into the project area in future periods. This will be the main agent group in most cases of frontier deforestation. Influencing the land-use decisions of this deforestation agent groups will not be possible in most cases, particularly if the agents are coming from distant locations and are driven by powerful economic reasons. Leakage prevention measures may not be sufficient to avoid some level of activity displacement to happen. To address potential leakage due to activity displacement in this case use one the options described in Step 2 of this methodology module. STEPS The basic steps to estimate displacement of unplanned deforestation are: STEP 0. Selection of the procedure STEP 1. Estimation of leakage due to the displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents STEP 2. Estimation of leakage due to the displacement of baseline activities of immigrant deforestation agents STEP 3. Estimation of total leakage due to the displacement of baseline activities STEP 0. Selection of the procedure The REDD project activity may be located: 1. Scenario 1 in a region or country in which no broader REDD program exists yet; or 3

4 2. Scenario 2 in a region or country in which a broader REDD program already exists. If Scenario 1 applies: Steps 1 to 3 must be applied. If Scenario 2 applies: If the broader REDD program is run by the national or a regional government, displacement of unplanned deforestation will be monitored and accounted in the broader REDD program. In this case, the authority responsible for the REDD program must be consulted, and policies, regulations and accounting rules related to project leakages set by the government or authority must be applied. If the broader REDD program is run by a third party that is not the national or regional government, the entity that is responsible for the broader REDD program must be consulted, and: a) If: The broader REDD program is monitoring, accounting and reporting GHG emissions from deforestation for a region that is larger than the project area and includes the project area, and monitoring, accounting and reporting of emissions from deforestation in the broader REDD program will occur during a period of time that is at a minimum covering the crediting period of the proposed REDD project activity, then proponents of the REDD project activity and the entity leading the broader REDD program can enter into an agreement on how leakage due to shifting of unplanned deforestation will be monitored, accounted and reported. b) If the above conditions are not satisfied, Steps 1 to 3 of this methodology module must be applied. STEP 1. Estimation of leakage due to the displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents This step is not required if option 1 or 2 are chosen in Step 2 (Leakage accounted in another REDD program). Two methods are available to estimate leakage due to the displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents: Method 1: Leakage belt Method 2: Activity monitoring Project proponents are free to choose the method that best fits the particular project circumstances. However, method one is only applicable if a baseline of carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions has been defined for the leakage belt area. 4

5 Method 1: Leakage belt With this method, changes in carbon s and emissions of non-co 2 gases that would occur in absence of the REDD project activity in an area surrounding or adjacent to the project area (the leakage belt ) are estimated and compared with the changes in carbon s and emissions of non-co 2 gases occurring during project implementation. The sub-steps to implement this method are the following: 1.1 Definition of the boundaries of the leakage belt 1.2 Estimation of the rate and location of unplanned baseline deforestation in the leakage belt 1.3 Estimation of baseline carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions in the leakage belt 1.4 Ex-ante estimation of leakage due to displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents 1.5 Monitoring of carbon changes and non-co 2 emissions in the leakage belt 1.6 Ex-post estimation of leakage due to displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents, based on measures of carbon s and deforestation rate in the leakage belt. 1.1 Definition of the boundary of the leakage belt The potential mobility of the main groups of local deforestation agents must be analyzed to define the boundary of the leakage belt. This analysis supposes that local agents and drivers of deforestation have been identified. Use Module Estimation of the baseline rate of unplanned deforestation (BL-UR) to analyze agents and drivers of potential leakage and establish the boundary of the leakage belt using transparent criteria that can be independently verified. 1.2 Estimation of the rate and location of unplanned baseline deforestation in the leakage belt The rate and location are estimated using the Modules Estimation of the baseline rate of unplanned deforestation (BL-UR) and Location and quantification of the threat of unplanned baseline deforestation (BL-UL). 1.3 Estimation of baseline carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions in the leakage belt For methods to define the baseline of the leakage belt area refer to Module Estimation of baseline carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions from unplanned deforestation (BL-UP). 5

6 The result of the estimation of baseline carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions must be reported using Table 3 and 4 of the REDD Methodology Framework (REDD-MF). 1.4 Ex ante estimation of leakage due to displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents Based on the expected impacts of the proposed REDD project activities, conservatively estimate the carbon s changes and greenhouse gas emissions in the leakage belt due to the implementation of the REDD project activity. As carbon changes and GHG emissions in the leakage belt will be subject to monitoring, the judgment of the project proponent will be sufficient for the ex ante estimate. The result of the ex ante estimate shall be reported using Table 3 and 4 of the REDD Methodology Framework (REDD-MF). To determine the net ex ante leakage carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions due to activity displacement, calculate the difference between the results obtained in 1.4 and 1.3 above. Present the results of the calculation using Table 1. 6

7 Table 1: Ex ante estimated leakage due to displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents Project year Carbon change Baseline of the leakage belt carbon changes Non-CO 2 emission non-co 2 emissions Ex-ante estimated actual emissions of the leakage belt Carbon change carbon changes Non-CO 2 emission non-co 2 emissions Carbon change Ex-ante estimated leakage carbon changes Non-CO 2 emission non-co 2 emissions yr tco 2 e yr -1 tco 2 e tco 2 e yr -1 tco 2 e tco 2 e yr -1 tco 2 e tco 2 e yr -1 tco 2 e tco 2 e yr -1 tco 2 e tco 2 e yr -1 tco 2 e N Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum 7

8 1.5 Monitoring of carbon changes and greenhouse gas emissions in the leakage belt For monitoring carbon changes and increases in greenhouse gas emissions in the leakage belt refer to the following modules: M-FCC for estimating changes in forest cover. The carbon pool modules (CP-A, CP-B, CP-D, CP-L, CP-S, and CP-W) for methods to estimate carbon changes, and LK-DFW for estimating forest degradation in the leakage belt; and E BB, E-FFC and E-NA for estimating increases in sources of emissions of GHG (other than carbon changes) if these are included in accounting. 1.6 Ex post estimation of leakage due to displacement of baseline activities of local deforestation agents To report ex-post leakage, use an ex-post version of Table 1. Method 2: Activity monitoring This method estimates leakage by assessing and monitoring the displacement of individual types of activities. Three types of activities could be displaced: 2.1 Grazing activities 2.2 Agricultural activities 2.3 Use of non-sustainable biomass 2.1 Displacement of grazing activities Where grazing activities are displaced, use the most recent version of the CDM EBapproved Tool for estimation of GHG emissions related to displacement of grazing activities in A/R CDM project activities Displacement of agricultural activities Where agricultural activities could be displaced, use the most recent version of the CDM EB-approved methodology for Reforestation or afforestation of land currently under agricultural use - AR-AM0004, Section on Estimation of leakage due to conversion of land to crop land, based on area of conversion. If the CDM EB approves a new tool to calculate carbon changes related to displacement of agricultural activities, use this tool instead of AR-AM Available at: 8

9 2.3 Increased use of non-renewable biomass Where collection of fuel-wood, production of charcoal and other short-lived wood products could be displaced and cause an increased use of non-renewable biomass outside the project boundary, use the CDM EB-approved tool for the Calculation of GHG emissions due to leakage from increased use of non-renewable woody biomass attributable to an A/R CDM project activity 2. STEP 2. Estimation of leakage due to the displacement of baseline activities of immigrant deforestation agents Three options are available to address this type of leakage: Option 1: Time discount approach. This option can always be chosen. Option 2: Leakage accounting through another program. This option is applicable only if there is such a program (more details below). Option 3: Buffer of credits. This option is applicable only if a broader REDD program is in preparation (more details below). Option 1: Time discount approach This approach addresses all forms of leakage due to displacement of unplanned deforestation. When this option is used, Step 1 must be ignored. Under the time discount approach, leakage is assumed to be the difference between actual net emission reductions and their net present value for climate change mitigation. The net present value is calculated based on the assumption that the REDD project activity will cause a 100% displacement of the baseline deforestation. As a consequence, the overall deforestation rate in the reference region will not change in the short term compared to the baseline situation. However, the REDD project activity will reduce the total area of forest that remains available to deforestation agents. As less forest area remains available for unplanned deforestation, it is assumed that the REDD project activity will anticipate the time point when deforestation will end, and reduce the total area deforested in the longterm compared to the baseline case. Using a 100-year time horizon, a discount rate of 1%, and the atmospheric carbon decay curve from the version of the Bern model used in the IPCC s Third Assessment Report, Fearnside (2007) calculated the net present value of avoiding the emission of one ton of CO 2 as being 0.6 tco 2 e. Thus, under option 1, leakage due to displacement of unplanned baseline activities is assumed to be 40% of the project s net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions: 2 Available at: 9

10 ΔC LK,Activity shifting = (ΔC BSL,unplanned - ΔC PS,unplanned ) * 0.4 (1) Where: ΔC LK,Activity shifting Leakage due to all forms of activity displacement; t CO 2 -e ΔC BSL,unplanned Baseline net greenhouse gas emissions through unplanned deforestation; t CO 2 -e ΔC PS,unplanned Project net greenhouse gas emissions; t CO 2 -e Option 2: Leakage accounting through another program Under this approach, leakage due to shifting of unplanned baseline deforestation is included in the accounting of a broader REDD program (e.g. a state- or nation- wide REDD program recognized by the UNFCCC or VCS) instead of being measured and deducted from the project s net emission reductions. To demonstrate that leakage is accounted in another program, evidence must be provided about the following: a) A broader REDD program covering the region encompassing the project area exists and it has adopted a REDD target or has established a regional deforestation baseline. b) A plan to reduce and monitor deforestation in the region surrounding the project area has been established and will monitor deforestation during the crediting period of the REDD project activity. Any increase in deforestation outside the boundary of the project activity will be detected by the monitoring plan of the broader REDD program and included in its GHG accounting. c) The broader REDD program is implemented by or on behalf of a national or sub-national public entity and is consistent with existing policies and regulations. Where the above conditions are not yet in place, but a regional or national REDD program is being designed, the proponents of the REDD project activity may enter into an agreement with the entity managing the broader REDD program to prove that any leakage due to activity displacement from the project area to the surrounding region will be counted as a GHG emission of the region s broader program. Option 3: Buffer of credits With this option, the net anthropogenic GHG emissions reductions are calculated without taking into account the displacement of unplanned baseline activities of immigrant groups. Instead, 10% of credits issued for the emissions reductions will be earmarked. Earmarked credits will have to be held in a credit account that is not under the control of the project participants and such earmarked credits will not be available for trade. However, the earmarked credits can be transferred to a broader REDD program entity, as per option 2, once such a program will become operational. 10

11 Option 3 can be used only where conditions required for option 2 are not fully met at the time of validation, but where it can reasonably be assumed that that a broader REDD program will be implemented in the future. STEP 3. Estimation of total leakage due to the displacement of baseline activities Summarize the results of the previous steps using Table 2. 11

12 Project year Leakage due to the displacement of activities implemented by local deforestation agents Carbon change carbon changes Table 2: Estimated total leakage due to displacement of baseline activities Non-CO 2 emission non-co 2 emissions Leakage due to the displacement of activities implemented by immigrant deforestation agents Carbon change carbon changes Non-CO 2 emission non-co 2 emissions Total estimated leakage due to displacement of unplanned baseline activities Carbon change carbon changes Non-CO 2 emission non-co 2 emissions yr tco 2 -e yr -1 tco 2 -e tco 2 -e yr -1 tco 2 -e tco 2 -e yr -1 tco 2 -e tco 2 -e yr -1 tco 2 -e tco 2 -e yr -1 tco 2 -e tco 2 -e yr -1 tco 2 -e N Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum 12

13 III. Data and parameters used and generated in this module Data/parameter Unit Used in equations Descripiton Source of data Measurement procedure (if any) Comments ΔC BSL,unplanned t CO 2 -e 1 Baseline net greenhouse gas emissions through unplanned deforestation ΔC PS,unplanned t CO 2 -e 1 Project net greenhouse gas emissions ΔC LK,Activity shifting t CO 2 -e 1 Leakage due to all forms of activity displacement 13