NUDGE KNOWLEDGE BRIEFING METRO MAYORS 2017 A GUIDE TO THE METRO MAYOR ELECTION FOR THE GREATER MANCHESTER COMBINED AUTHORITY AREA

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1 METRO MAYORS 2017 A GUIDE TO THE METRO MAYOR ELECTION FOR THE GREATER MANCHESTER COMBINED AUTHORITY AREA A GUIDE TO THE METRO MAYOR ELECTION FOR THE A GUIDE WEST MIDLANDS TO THE METRO COMBINED MAYOR AUTHORITY ELECTION AREA FOR THE TEES VALLEY COMBINED AUTHORITY AREA UPDATED JANUARY 2017 UPDATED JANUARY 2017 UPDATED 19 th April 2017

2 TEES VALLEY METRO MAYOR ELECTION 2017 A GUIDE NUDGE KNOWLEDGE BRIEFING There are six Metro Mayor elections scheduled to be held on May 4 th 2017: in the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, Tees Valley, West of England, and Peterborough and Cambridgeshire. We have produced a Nudge Knowledge series providing separate short briefing packs for each Metro Mayor election. This note focuses specifically on Tees Valley. In it, we take a look at what exactly a Metro Mayor is, the boundaries of the area they will cover, and what powers the Mayor will have once elected. We also provide background analysis of the election itself, with details of candidates, party manifesto commitments, a breakdown of previous election results across the local authorities making up the Tees Valley Combined Authority Area, as well as some basic demographic data for the region. The briefing will be updated periodically as and when additional candidates put themselves forward and manifestos are published. In putting together this guide we have drawn on a number of different sources: Demographic and economic data is drawn from the Office for National Statistics. Parliamentary and local election results have been taken from the relevant local authority webpages. Information about the powers of the Tees Valley Metro Mayor and the devolution deal agreed with the Government is taken directly from the gov.uk website. Information about candidates and manifesto commitments has come from political party and various news websites. For background on Metro Mayors we have enjoyed reading the excellent and helpful articles from the Centre for Cities website. If you have any questions about this briefing, please contact David Park via david@nudgefactory.co.uk.

3 WHAT IS A METRO MAYOR? Combined Authorities were introduced in England by the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Act This allowed councils and Local Enterprise Partnerships to voluntarily pool their resources to co-ordinate and deliver policies across their combined boundaries. The 2015 Conservative Government continued this trend towards devolution and passed the 2016 Cities and Local Government Devolution Act, which made it possible for Combined Authorities to gain greater powers. However, a condition for receiving these extra powers was the introduction of greater political accountability across the area in the form of a directly elected Mayor or, as has become common parlance, a Metro Mayor. A Metro Mayor will, in effect, act as a directly elected Chair to a Combined Authority area. Mayors will work with leaders of the local authorities to set out a strategic direction for boosting the economy across the area, focussing on issues such as housing, transport, employment, healthcare, or even, in some cases, taking on the role of Police and Crime Commissioner for the region. They will not take over the running of local public services though (e.g. street cleaning or schools), which will still be delivered directly by local councils. However, each devolution deal has to be negotiated separately, and so each Metro Mayor and Combined Authority will have slightly different powers. It is also worth noting that precedent from previous devolution packages i.e. Scotland, Wales and London would suggest that more powers are likely to be delegated over time. There are a number of checks and balances in place to limit the decision-making ability of the Mayor. Each Mayor must appoint a Deputy, who must be a leader of one of the local authorities within the Combined Authority area. The Deputy, together with other local authority leaders in the area, will form a Combined Authority cabinet. The Mayor can delegate powers to cabinet members and the cabinet acts as a check on the Mayor. A 2/3 majority can override a Mayor s strategy or amend a budget. An overview and scrutiny committee will also be created for the Combined Authority area, with one member from each local authority. Devolution deals have been agreed with Greater Manchester, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Liverpool City Region, West of England and Peterborough and Cambridgeshire. All of these areas will see elections for Metro Mayors on 4th May A deal had been agreed with Sheffield City Region but a recent court case means that election is now likely delayed until 2018, although there is a chance the whole deal could now unravel. The Government continue to have discussions with other areas about devolution packages and so it is possible there will be more Metro Mayor elections in other parts of the country in future. AREAS WITH METRO MAYOR ELECTIONS IN 2017

4 WHAT IS THE DEAL FOR TEES VALLEY? The constituent local authorities of the Tees Valley Combined Authority area are Darlington, Stockton-on-Tees, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, and Redcar and Cleveland. It is residents of these local authorities who will elect their first Metro Mayor on 4 th May The Tees Valley Metro Mayor will receive 450 million in funding over a 30-year period - 15 million per annum - and some control of Education & Skills, Housing and Planning, and Transport. These powers will include: Abilities to review and redesign the education, skills, and employment support system Creation and control of Mayoral Development Corporations Fully devolved adult education project from the year 2018/19 A full list of powers can be found in the Tees Valley Devolution Agreement document. Tees Valley currently has fewer powers than other areas that are also being given devolution deals Greater Manchester and the West Midlands for example but it is expected that further powers will be agreed and granted over time, following more devolution talks with Westminster. In some metro mayor areas, the role of the Police and Crime Commissioner can either remain unchanged with a directly elected individual in the post, or be merged with the Mayoral role to come under the scope of their control, if the sitting Commissioner agrees. In the case of Tees Valley, there are currently no plans to merge the two positions. However, as devolution talks are a continual process, this could perhaps change in the years approaching 2020, when both the Police and Crime Commissioner and the Mayor have their next election date.

5 METRO MAYOR CANDIDATES FOR THE TEES VALLEY AREA Ben Houchen Member of Stockton Borough Council representing Yarm ward since 2011, and leader of the Conservative group. A former candidate for the North East in the 2014 European Parliament election. A solicitor by profession, and is the CEO of BLK, a sport clothing company. Sue Jeffrey Leader of Redcar and Cleveland Council, and councillor for South Bank ward since Jeffrey was also a Redcar and Cleveland councillor from 1997 until Has 15 years experience of serving as the chair and a non-executive director of Tees Valley Housing. Chris Foot Wood Has stood in eight General elections since 1974, most recently in Wood has also stood in European Parliament elections six times, as well as in the 2011 Mayor of Middlesbrough election. John Tennant A member of Hartlepool Borough Council representing Jesmond ward since 2016, and leader of the UKIP group. A former Parliamentary Assistant to a UKIP MEP, and current Executive Assistant to Jonathan Arnott MEP. Tennant also stood as a candidate in the Gateshead Council elections in Website: None as of 19/04/2017 Website: Website: chris4teesmayor.weebly.com Website: None as of 19/04/2017

6 MANIFESTO WATCH (Updated 19 th April 2017) This is by no means a definitive roundup of all policy stances, pledges, and visions. If you would like a more detailed reading of these then we encourage you to visit each candidate s website or social media pages. Candidates will continue to release their full manifestos in the run up to the actual date of the election on May 4th, and we shall periodically update this page to reflect this. Policing Conservative candidate Ben Houchen has pledged to create a commission designed to bring an end to the Cleveland Police and establish a suitable successor - despite the future Tees Valley Mayor not having policing powers. His reasoning for this is that the structure and organisation that controls the Cleveland force had lost all credibility following two decades of controversy, and that the local community no longer place their full confidence in them. Houchen also advised the Government and relevant Ministers to not make any long-term policy decisions that would bind them to the organisation s future. Miscellaneous Transport John Tennant has said he would look at the possibility of bringing back the Tees Valley Metro project which was cancelled due to lack of funding. Ben Houchen has pledged to use Mayoral funds to renationalise Durham Tees Valley Airport and give it new leadership after it has experienced what he referred to as a period of decline. The private owners of the airport currently have plans for 350 homes on the land. The Economy & Jobs Following her selection as the Labour party candidate, Sue Jeffrey gave a speech in which she outlined some changes that would be made should her mayoral bid be successful. She said her aim would be to ensure that our economic recovery and growth is sustainable and delivered to all parts of the Tees Valley. Jeffrey said that a way of doing this is to introduce more high quality, well paid jobs, with a future vision of full employment built on local investment, diversifying our economy and reducing our dependency on foreign capital and labour. Chris Foote Wood has declared that if elected he will donate half of the Mayoral salary to local charities and trusts each year. At a recent hustings event, John Tennant said he would want a referendum on the Tees Valley devolution deal

7 2015 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS

8 2015 & 2016 LOCAL ELECTIONS 1 1 Methodology. Where one-third elections took place with just one candidate per ward, the highest polling candidate s party is highlighted. To enable better comparisons, where multiple candidates stood in one ward, e.g. for all-out elections in a 2 or 3 member ward, or where a by-election was held the same day, the average of each party s vote share in each ward has been calculated and the highest average vote shown on the map and included in the calculation of a total party vote across the council area in the election analysis below.

9 EU REFERENDUM VOTE

10 ELECTION ANALYSIS TWO HORSE RACE? NUDGE KNOWLEDGE BRIEFING On the face of it, a Labour victory would seem the most likely outcome. At the 2015 General Election, Labour won most seats and by far the most votes across the Tees Valley Combined Authority Area 2. The Conservatives came second with one Parliamentary seat and nearly 30% of the vote. (General election 2015) Votes Percentage Labour 144, % Conservative 98, % UKIP 56, % Lib Dem 16, % Green 8, % Others 5, % Total 330,017 UKIP came third with a solid 17% of the vote and it is also worth noting the strong Leave vote in the EU Referendum of This would suggest the Party has a strong base to work with for the Metro Mayor Election in May. However, the most recent local election results suggest the Tees Valley Metro Mayor election may not be the shoe-in for Labour some might expect. Labour polled just 35% of the vote across the Tees Valley area at the most recent local elections. Whilst the Conservatives and UKIP both polled less than at the General election too, it is the size of the other vote that is most interesting. Made up of various independent candidates, residents associations and small parties, the 15% other vote is substantial. (Local Elections 2015 & ) Votes Percentage Labour 95, % Conservative 70, % UKIP 35, % Lib Dem 18, % Green 11, % Others 39, % Total 270,114 We had initially singled out the Tees Valley as providing a potential upset, due to the area s history of electing independent candidates, (H Angus the Monkey in Hartlepool and Ray Mallon in Middlesbrough) in addition to a relatively high proportion of independent votes cast at council elections. However, there are now no independent candidates running, with the possible disruptor in the race the North East Party withdrawing after being unable to raise the required 5,000 deposit. Whilst recent election results suggest Labour may seem favourites to win, all Metro Mayor elections are fought under the supplementary vote system. This means voters get to vote for a first and a second choice candidate. If no candidate gets over 50% of first choice votes in the first ballot, the top two go into a run off where all the other candidates second choice votes are reallocated. History suggests no candidate will receive more than 50% in the first round in this contest, and so a scenario exists where the Conservatives come second in the first round and go on to win with the aid of UKIP second preference votes. There is also now the added backdrop of a June 8 th General election. How will that impact on the Mayoral races on 4 th May? We cannot be sure but two of the local MPs Iain Wright and Tom Blenkinsop have both said they will not seek reelection, giving a picture of internal Labour Party strife across the region. Will that bad blood also help the Tories sneak over the winning line for an unlikely victory? CONCLUSION TWO HORSE RACE 2 The Sedgefield Parliamentary Constituency also includes parts of Sedgefield Borough and Easington District, which slightly inflates the apparent size of the Labour vote when using the last GE results as a comparator/predictor for the Tees Valley Metro Mayor Election. 3 Mix of all out elections in 2015 and 1/3 seats in Where all out, we have averaged the party vote in each ward to ensure compatibility.

11 SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

12 If you would like a more in-depth analysis about this or other upcoming Metro Mayor elections, or would like to discuss how Nudge Factory might be able to assist you in producing other briefings or reports, please contact us using the details below: Ahzaz Chowdhury Managing Partner D: +44 (0) E: az@nudgefactory.co.uk David Park Partner D: +44 (0) E: david@nudgefactory.co.uk Nudge Factory is a Public and Corporate Affairs consultancy based in the United Kingdom. Our team uses its experience to assist our clients influence policy and opinion. From local communities to town halls, to City Hall and Westminster; our bespoke strategies help some of the biggest names in the corporate world win hearts and minds. Our expertise spans five practices and provides support for our clients in all areas of their businesses. Our partners and senior team have decades of experience in some of the most demanding environments in national and local politics and a passion for problem-solving. Working closely with your organisation we will draw up a strategy that fits your priorities. PUBLIC AFFAIRS LOCAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS CSR & SOCIAL VALUE PRIVATE CLIENT Unit 35, Centrale, Keeley Road, Croydon, CR0 1TF, UK +44 (0)