Multiparty government in Europe: How many, how big, where, and in what

Transcription

1 CHARLES LEES, UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD Multiparty government in Europe: How many, how big, where, and in what context? Presentation to Coalition at One Conference, 29 th -30 th of June at the Institute for Government, 2 Carlton Gardens, London SW1Y 5AA, UK

2 SUMMARY How many? o 424 Western European Governments by type, How big? o 239 Western European Coalitions by type, Where? o 424 Western European Governments by country by type, o 239 Western European Coalitions by country by type,

3 SUMMARY In what context? o Electoral and Party Systems o Key structural attributes of the polity o Coalition agreements o Conflict and conflict management Conclusions

4 HOW MANY? Figure Western European Governments by type, N Single-Party Governments N Multi-Party Governments N Other Goverments Source: data adapted from Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008

5 HOW BIG? Figure Western European Coalitions by type, N Minimal Winning Coalitions N Surplus Majority Coalitions N Minority Coalitions Source: data adapted from Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008

6 WHERE? Figure Western European Governments by country by type, Lux NL Fin Bel Ger Aus Fra Ita Por Den Ire Nor Gre Swe Spa UK 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Single party governments % Coalition governments % Other (including transitional or non-partisan governments) Source: data adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008

7 WHERE? Figure Western European Coalitions by country by type, Den Nor Ire Swe Ita Fin NL Fra Bel Por Gre Ger Aus Lux 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Minority Coalitions % Minimal Winning Coalitions % Surplus Majority Coalitions Source: data adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008; Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008

8 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Electoral and Party System context o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index) o Effective-number of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index) Key structural attributes of the polity o Bicameralism o Federalism o Consociationalism Coalition Agreements Conflict and conflict management o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences; constant-sum and variable-sum games) o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)

9 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Figure 5. Government type for 16 European party systems by relative disproportionality of electoral systems and effective number of parties, 'Effective number' of parties in parliament Netherlands Denmark Sweden Austria Belgium Finland Italy Norway Luxembourg Germany Ireland Portugal Spain Greece UK France Disproportionality of electoral system Source: Lees, 2011

10 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Electoral and Party System context o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index) o Effective-number of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index) Key structural attributes of the polity o Bicameralism o Federalism o Consociationalism Coalition Agreements Conflict and conflict management o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences; constant-sum and variable-sum games) o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)

11 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table coalition-prone systems by key structural attributes Country Bicameral? Federal? Consociational? Austria Yes Yes No Belgium Yes Yes Yes Denmark No No No Finland No No No France Yes No No Germany Yes Yes No Greece No No No Rep of Ireland Yes No No Italy Yes No No Luxembourg No No No Netherlands Yes No Yes Norway No No No Portugal No No No Sweden No No No Sources: data adapted from World Resources Institute; ACE Electoral Knowledge Network; The Electoral Systems Website (

12 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Electoral and Party System context o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index) o Effective-number of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index) Key structural attributes of the polity o Bicameralism o Federalism o Consociationalism Coalition Agreements Conflict and conflict management o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences; constant-sum and variable-sum games) o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)

13 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table coalition-prone systems by number and content of coalition agreements, Country N Mean size Mean % general procedural rules Mean % specific procedural rules Mean % distribution of offices Mean % distribution of competencies Mean % policies Austria 14 6, Belgium 16 14, Denmark 5 3, Finland 33 1, France 5 1, Germany 10 5, Rep of Ireland 6 10, Italy 1 3, Netherlands 11 14, Norway 8 12, Portugal 3 13, Sweden 7 2, Source: Table adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008

14 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Electoral and Party System context o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index) o Effective-number of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index) Key structural attributes of the polity o Bicameralism o Federalism o Consociationalism Coalition Agreements Conflict and conflict management o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences; constant-sum and variable-sum games) o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)

15 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table 3a. 14 coalition-prone countries by most commonly used arenas for cabinet conflict Country N Internal Mixed External Other arenas Inner Cabinet Cabinet Committe e Coalition Committee Cabinet + Parliamenta ry Leaders Parliament ary Leaders Party Summit Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Rep of Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal Sweden Notes: Percentages of countries cabinets; Source: adapted from Anderweg and Timmermans, 2008

16 IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table 3b. 14 coalition-prone countries by conflict management areas for most serious cabinet conflicts Country N Internal Mixed External Other arenas Inner Cabinet Cabinet Committe e Coalition Committee Cabinet + Parliamenta ry Leaders Parliament ary Leaders Party Summit Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Rep of Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal Sweden Notes: Percentages of countries cabinets; Source: adapted from Anderweg and Timmermans, 2008

17 CONCLUSIONS Coalition government most common form in Western Europe since 1945 Varieties of coalition (Minority; Minimal Winning; Surplus Majority) Context is hugely important o Electoral and Party Systems o Key structural attributes of the polity o Coalition agreements o Conflict and conflict management Used with caution, Western European data can illuminate aspects of UK coalition

18 Thank you for your attention