General Election 2017 Special Report 18 April 2017

Transcription

1 General Election 2017 Special Report 18 April 2017

2 Introduction Prime Minister Theresa May today defied her own judgement not to hold an election until 2020 and announced that a general election will be held on Thursday 8 th June. Some have called this opportunism based on her significant lead in the polls, but what is clear is that the Prime Minister has felt the challenge of governing without a clear personal mandate from the electorate and this June will most likely set that right by delivering her a bigger majority. This election will be fought solely on Brexit meaning MPs that voted Remain or Leave in contradiction to the majority of their constituents face the biggest challenge. But there are other dynamics at play here that will affect the result of this election. In this note, we go through some of the key areas of consideration over the next few months and give a sense of where the UK is heading. Today is yet another turn in a dramatic political story taking place not just in this country, but globally too. As ever, Maitland Political s strong team of cross-party consultants are on hand to give your business or organisation the vital political antennae it needs to address the choppy waters ahead. If you would like to hear more sign up to our daily morning briefing by ing political@maitland.co.uk, follow us on or speak to one of us by calling Yours sincerely, 2

3 The Fixed Term Parliaments Act The Coalition Government introduced the fixed term parliament s act, removing the inherent right of the Prime Minister to request the dissolution of Parliament. Hence, in order for Theresa May to carry out this snap election, she needs either the approval of parliament via a twothirds majority in the House of Commons, or a vote of no confidence by a simple majority. In this instance, it s the former and tomorrow MPs will vote on whether to hold a General Election with a requisite majority of at least 434 MPs for the vote to pass. The vote will pass without a fuss as Labour have already announced their support. Though the other parties have the legal basis to resist Theresa May s demand, the political problems from doing so are too great to resist. So, in short, we will have an election on 8 th June. The House of Commons motion set to be voted on tomorrow will use the following wording (It is expected that the motion will be debated for 90 minutes before a vote is called): That there shall be an early Parliamentary General Election. Dissolution of parliament and outstanding legislation Parliament has to be dissolved a minimum of 25 days before a General Election. Whilst it has been reported that the government will seek to dissolve on Wednesday 3 rd May, reports from MPs inside the House actually suggest parliament could be dissolved as early as next Thursday 27 th April, meaning there would be just 6 remaining sitting days in parliament. This could mean legislation waved through. The outstanding pieces of legislation are as follows: Bills Digital Economy Bill The Bill has passed the Commons and passed its third reading in the Lords - it is now scheduled to go to the Commons for consideration of Lords amendments. To read more, click here. Neighbourhood Planning Bill The Bill has returned to the Lords for consideration of Commons amendments. This will take place in the Lords on 26 April. To read more, click here. Bus Services Bill The Bill has returned to the Lords for consideration of Commons amendments. This will take place in the Lords on 26 April. To read more, click here. Standing orders Local Government Andrew Percy MP That the draft Greater Manchester Combined Authority (Functions and Amendment) Order 2017, which was laid before this House on 20 March, be approved. 3

4 The make-up of the commons The question everyone is wanting answered is what will the House of Commons look like from 9 th June? Which MPs will still be there, and who will likely be out? A number of MPs have already announced their decision to stand down. The list currently is as follows: Alan Johnson (Labour, Hull West and Hessle) Tom Blenkinsopp (Labour, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) Simon Burns (Conservative, Chelmsford) Ken Clarke (Conservative, Rushcliffe) Comeback kids Former Liberal Democrat Business Secretary, Vince Cable, dramatically lost his London seat of Twickenham in 2015 to Tory MP Tania Mathias. He has announced he is to stand in that seat once again. Could we see Ed Balls given a seat to stand somewhere? Possible upsets on the night The central prediction of the election results is that the Conservatives will take a considerable amount of seats from the Labour party. Seats that have an incumbent Labour MP with a Conservative MP as the closet rival clearly face the biggest threat. These MPs include: Constituency MP Party Majority Closest rival City of Chester Chris Matheson Labour 93 Conservative Halifax Holly Lynch Labour 428 Conservative Brentford & Isleworth Ruth Cadbury Labour 465 Conservative Ilford North Wes Streeting Labour 589 Conservative Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly Labour 650 Conservative Barrow & Furness John Woodcock Labour 795 Conservative Enfield N Joan Ryan Labour 1,086 Conservative Hampstead & Kilburn Tulip Siddiq Labour 1,138 Conservative Hove Peter Kyle Labour 1,236 Conservative The Liberal Democrats will be going after Conservative MPs and Ministers as the election will be hard-fought on Brexit. The following government ministers face a challenge from a Liberal Democrat MP, who came second at the last election: Constituency MP / Minister Vote share Liberal Democrat challenger Truro & Falmouth Sarah Newton (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Home Office 22,681/ Simon Rix Oxford West & Abingdon Romsey & Southampton North Harrogate & Knaresborough Nicola Blackwood (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department of Health) Caroline Noakes (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Work and Pensions) Andrew Jones (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at Department for Transport) 26,153/ 45. 7% 26,285/ 54. 3% 28,153/ Layla Moran Ben Nicholls Helen Flynn 4

5 The Devolved Assemblies Scotland North of the border, there will be expectations among Scottish Conservatives that they can reverse some of the losses they have incurred there in recent elections. The party made a breakthrough in the Scottish Parliament elections last year to become the largest opposition group, and will be hoping that t 2015 was the high-water mark for the SNP. Labour too will be anxious to stage a recovery although they have been lacklustre since the independence referendum, being replace as Scotland's second party by the Tories. There is still a danger that they underestimate the SNP, however. The Conservative's only MP in Scotland, Scottish Secretary David Mundell, has a slender majority of 798. His is a scalp Nicola Sturgeon will want to claim. Likewise, Labour's Ian Murray is defending Edinburgh South with a larger, but still tight, 2637 votes. The SNP, meanwhile, will fight the election on an independence ticket, arguing that the only way to protect Scotland from a hard Brexit is a referendum to leave the UK. Should the SNP claim a majority of Scottish seats, Sturgeon is likely to see this as her authority to proceed. Wales In Wales, Labour could potentially encounter a similar Brexit dynamic to the one they will face in Northern seats, as constituencies that voted strongly to leave the EU abandon their Remain-supporting incumbents. With the UKIP vote, which was also strong at the last Assembly elections, coming under pressure from the Conservatives, Labour may find themselves losing seats in places they once thought impossible. Northern Ireland This will be the second election in months for Northern Ireland, whose political system is paralysed by the ongoing deadlock between the DUP and Sinn Fein. Neither side has been able to agree on a path forward and the prospect of direct rule has been rumoured. DUP leader Arlene Foster said that the election provides the people of Northern Ireland with the opportunity to vote for the union, while Sinn Fein s leader in Belfast, Michelle O Neill, said it will be an opportunity for voters to oppose Brexit and reject Tory cuts and austerity. If March's Assembly election is any indication, Sinn Fein could gain ground while the Ulster Unionists are further squeezed between the DUP and the cross-community Alliance Party. 5

6 Polling This week's YouGov/Times voting intention figures saw the Conservatives on 44% while Labour are on 23%, giving the Tories a 21 point lead. The Liberal Democrats were on 12%, UKIP on 10%, and votes for other parties at 10%. Theresa May continues to be the favoured choice for best Prime Minister, with 50% of people preferring her to Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader is backed by 14% of voters, whilst 36% don't know. Psephologist Michael Thrasher says recent polls point towards a generous, but unlikely, 140 seat majority for the Conservatives their biggest majority since Thrasher s model suggests Labour could get 164 seats in this election. That would represent their lowest haul since

7 Boundary reforms The election will be fought on the existing boundaries meaning this election will return 650 MPs. This gets rid of a big issue for all parties, meaning their MPs do not have to fight each other over merged seats The following MPs from the Conservatives and Labour that were due to be affected by the boundary changes are as follows: Labour Owen Smith (Pontypridd) Stephen Kinnock (Aberavon) Mike Gapes (Ilford South) Chris Evans (Islwyn) Cat Smith (Lancaster and Fleetwood) Jim Dowd (Lewisham West and Penge) Vicky Foxcroft (Lewisham, Deptford) Conservative George Osborne (Tatton) David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden) Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip) Justine Greening (Putney) Priti Patel (Witham) Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire) Simon Hart (Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire) 7