ASSESSEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL Calculation model AREP-LP

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1 ASSESSEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL Calculation model AREP-LP Eng. Alexander Penchev, MSc. Managing director ESD-Bulgaria Ltd. Key words: Renewable Energy (RES), Renewable Technologies (RET), Theoretical Potential, Technical Potential, Municipalities, Regions, Energy Planning(EP), Emission Reduction (EmR), Market Assessment (MA), Data base(db). Introduction Bulgaria is a country rich in renewable energy sources. There are all types of RES including: solar, geothermal, biomass, wind energy and hydropower. Per capita it ranks among the top in Europe. Bulgaria's target for 2020 is 16% of final consumption of electricity should be from renewable energy. To achieve this goal, the first and most important task is assessing the potential of renewable energy and its geographical distribution. Creating a database of renewable energy is essential for implementation of investment projects in this area. Models for assessment of RES potential Currently there are different models for the assessment of RE potential. One of the first is SAFIRE (Strategic Assessment for Implementation of Rational Energies). It was developed in the early 90's of last century by ESD Ltd. UK and Freiburg University Germany. The model assesses the macro level. It has a complex structure and is designed to work on renewable energy experts with high experience. Evaluate: the technical and theoretical potential, financial and economic indicators including market potential and market penetration. Results are intended for policy makers and decision makers. The results do not give a response where the resource is located and what are the investment opportunities. SAFIRE has been used in over 40 countries worldwide. During the period it was made a first assessment of the potential of renewable energy in Bulgaria. Another group of models such as: RETScreen, Energy software, Renewable software and others. They are designed for pre investment studies for specific RET. They work with a detailed database on specific RE technologies. From the foregoing it appears that at present there is no 455

2 Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Science FMNS 2011 model for the assessment of renewable energy potential and its geographic distribution in a given area and / or region. Calculation model AREP-LP. General description. (Assessment of Renewable Energy Potential - Local Planning) The lack of a suitable model for assessment of RES potential has forced our company (ESD-Bulgaria Ltd) to develop their own calculation program. The computational model AREP-LP was established. The main objectives of the model were: To fill the gap between assessment models on the macro level and to those for investment research (Figure 1). Evaluate the theoretical and technical potential, depending on the RET Evaluate the commercial applicability of the RET Evaluate the market potential and market penetration Evaluate under different scenarios To be able currently to introduce modifications Be friendly (can be used by non professionals) Ability to make evaluations at the macro level and feasibility studies for investment projects. To serve to create a database of renewable energy potential of municipal, regional and national level. Fig.1. On Table 1 is a comparative assessment of different computational models made by a team of TU - Sofia. Comparison is based using the following criteria: Range of models - a variety of categories and components of the model (1) Structure of the model - allowing easy access and use its various modules (2) Functionality of the model - flexibility of the model (3) Sensitivity and accuracy of model (4) Applicability (universality) of the model (5) Accessibility for use by non-specialists (6) 456

3 Number of RET, which can be used to model their energy assessment (7) Calculation model Criteria Tabl RETScreen 8 Energy software 2 SOMES 2 Siterra software 2 Renewable software 5 Renewable fuels module 5 SAFIRE 8 AREP - LP 9 AREP-LP Structure The model includes three main groups: input data, computation part and generate results. Input data is consistent with the format in which are represented by official institutions. Computational part is designed based on precise engineering methods of calculation. The results are generated in tabular and graphic form. On Figure 2 presents the type of input data. 457

4 Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Science FMNS 2011 Fig.2 The model make the following groups of evaluations - Fig.3. Input data and results Fig.3 All inputs and outputs are presented in tabular and graphic form. Examples are given in fig.4 and fig.5 458

5 Fig.4. Geothermal energy potential Velingrad municipality Applicability Fig.5. Data present in graphs - Examples Computational model "AREP-LP" was established as a universal tool for development of municipal energy plans Fig

6 Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Science FMNS 2011 Estimates with him are extremely effective in applying the bottom up method. First, evaluate the potential of municipal level and then aggregating the results of regional and national level - fig.7 Fig.7. Assessment of RES potential. The method bottom-up Computational program is a type of "open source", which gives the model greater opportunities. Based on the basic model different versions were developed such as AREP-Geothermal, REScan and others. REScan version was specifically developed for use by municipal and regional administrations. Where used AREP-LP and its various versions began to be used by 2001 Most important applications Assessment of renewable energy potential in all 11 municipalities in Stara Zagora. Establishment of municipal and regional database Assessment of renewable energy potential of the municipality of Sofia. Establishment of a municipal database Assessment of RE potential of the municipality of Petrich. Establishment of a municipal database Assessment of RE potential in all nine municipalities of Smolyan. Establishment of municipal and regional database Assessment of RE potential in municipalities: Silistra, Kyustendil, Kocherinovo, Teteven, Velingrad and others 2002 Poland Sins 2005 in UK Why AREP-LP The model give opportunities to estimate: The energy equivalent of theoretical and technical potential of RES The market potential and commercial applicable RET Assessments may be made under different scenarios Ability to create and maintenance of database 460

7 Key tool in the development of local sustainable energy plans Flexible - with the possibility to include additional modules in the model, depending on the specific task A universal - can be applied in all countries, allows to obtain information additional to that implied by the model It can be used for pre investment studies and also for the development of investment project It has high sensitivity and accuracy of assessment of the results. Easy to use Identify investment projects in renewable energy and energy efficiency areas Assessment of CO2 emission reduction. Conclusions Computational models AREP-LP and its versions: AREP-Geothermal and REScan are with proven qualities. It can be widely used at home and abroad. References 1. PHARE Energy Program. Project Technical and Economic Assessment of RES Potential in Bulgaria SAFIRE - Description of calculation model for assessment of RES potential. ESD Ltd.UK Project Local sustainable energy planning. Donor DFID Project Development of calculation model AREP-LP. ESD- Bulgaria. ESD-Bulgaria Project Assessment of RES potential Smolian municipality ESD- Bulgaria Project Sofia municipality development of municipal renewable energy program ESD-Bulgaria Project Public Private Partnership: Building the capacity for municipal sustainable energy development, Municipality of Petrich ESD-Bulgaria REScan calculation model for assessment of RES potential in the territory of Stara Zagora region ESD-Bulgaria. Project Petkova.S and collective. Article. Analysis of models for assessment of RES energy potential