Visualization of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges in the Florida Keys. Chris Bergh, Director Coastal and Marine Resilience

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1 Visualization of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges in the Florida Keys Chris Bergh, Director Coastal and Marine Resilience

2 Keys>7,700 acres

3 Sea Level Rise is a Critical Threat Even at its most rapid, sea level rise is hard to perceive. Seeing is Believing so we use visualization tools

4 Initial Estimates of the Ecological and Economic Consequences of Sea Level Rise on the Florida Keys through the Year 2100 Sea level rise modeling focused on Big Pine Key using fine scale elevation data Potential future shorelines Changes in terrestrial habitat distribution Property value loss estimates Sea level rise modeling on the entire Keys using coarse scale elevation data Resilience and adaption responses

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6 2008 Value Data $1,561,809,861 6,235 acres

7 -$40,000, acres

8 -$75,000, acres

9 -$239,000, acres

10 -$993,000, acres

11 -$1,620,000, acres

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13 PROPERTY VALUE AND ACREAGE AT RISK UNDER VARIOUS SLR SCENARIOS (MONROE COUNTY; 30M NED) LOWER KEYS MIDDLE KEYS UPPER KEYS FLORIDA KEYS SLR Scenario PROPERTY VALUE AT RISK ACRES PROPERTY VALUE AT RISK ACRES PROPERTY VALUE AT RISK ACRES PROPERTY VALUE AT RISK ACRES IPCC 18cm $2,610,000,000 11,000 $753,000,000 4,430 $7,670,000,000 43,300 $11,000,000,000 58,800 IPCC 35cm $8,790,000,000 49,400 $1,850,000,000 9,500 $8,040,000,000 47,500 $18,700,000, ,000 IPCC 59cm $11,000,000,000 54,400 $2,610,000,000 11,200 $8,330,000,000 49,600 $21,900,000, ,000 Rahmstorf 100cm $13,000,000,000 56,300 $3,530,000,000 12,600 $10,100,000,000 55,600 $26,700,000, ,000 Rahmstorf 140cm $15,800,000,000 58,000 $6,040,000,000 17,300 $13,200,000,000 67,100 $35,100,000, ,000 Note: Figures are rounded to 3 significant digits. Entries may not sum to totals due to rounding. $35.1 B

14 We Have Time to Minimize the Consequences of Sea Level Rise By mitigating the root causes of global climate change at international through local scales Atmospheric pollution from greenhouse gases Deforestation and forest degradation By preparing our local natural areas, native species populations and the built environment Enhancing their resilience to undesirable change Then enabling them to adapt to unavoidable change And Now is the Time to Start

15 Enhancing resilience to undesirable change Identifying and protecting conservation areas and built areas with inherently high resilience elevation, representation, replication, connectivity, and effective management Implementing no regrets strategies for effective management controlled burning fire-dependent areas invasive species control wetlands/groundwater restoration flood-proofing/storm-proofing buildings storm water management

16 Adapting to unavoidable change Implementing ex-situ conservation measures if necessary and warranted captive breeding for imperiled animals seed banking for imperiled plants Managing today for tomorrow s marine ecosystem removing artificial surfaces (e.g. asphalt) once they are obsolete removing pollutants prior to inundation Landfills at Key West, Cudjoe, Long Key, N. Key Largo

17 Planning ahead Integrate resilience and adaptation planning for the natural and built environment to minimize natural areas degradation and maximize nature s benefits to people Monroe County Climate Change Advisory Committee MC Comprehensive Plan Energy and Climate Element Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Florida Keys Coastal Resilience Tool

18 Coastal Resilience (coastalresilience.org) With more complete information, municipal managers can make informed decisions that enhance both ecological and socio-economic resilience in the face of sea level rise and coastal hazards.

19 Geographies

20 sea-level rise and storm surge scenarios 2020, 2050, 2080 High, Medium, Conservative No Storm, Cat-2, Cat-3

21 sea-level rise and storm surge scenarios Left Map & Right Map Synch Maps 2080 High No Storm 2080 High Cat-2

22 a tool with a lot of data Map Layers Tree Ecological Social Economic Critical Facilities Land Use Boundaries

23 SE FL Regional Climate Change Compact Vulnerability Assessment 2-Foot Sea Level Rise Scenario Long Key -- Duck Key Conclusions

24 Visualization of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges in the Florida Keys Chris Bergh, Director Coastal and Marine Resilience