Grey Correlation Analysis of Tourism, Economy and Environment in Hunan Province

Transcription

1 Grey Correlaton Analyss of Toursm, Economy and Envronment n Hunan Provnce Ma Qonghu, Ouyang Wen, Zhou Lfang, Xngyu* Abstract Usng grey correlaton analyss, quanttatve analyss of the relatonshp between toursm, economy and envronment of Hunan, the results show that: (1) toursm and economc have strong correlaton, and they have a certan mpact on the envronment, whch s the man factor to restrct the development of Hunan toursm, whch s the man factor restrctng the development of Hunan toursm. Keywords Toursm Economy Envronment; Grey Correlaton Analyss; Hunan Provnce I. INTRODUCTION Toursm, economy and envronment are a huge and complex system, and t s dffcult to use mathematcal statstcs method for accurate quanttatve analyss, and grey theory just makes up for ths shortcomng, whch s sutable for some nformaton s known, the "small sample", "poor nformaton" s unknown, and the "nformaton" s not determnstc system [1]. For example, these factors, such as toursm resources, toursm projects, toursm preference, passenger servce qualty, traffc condtons, regonal economc development level, and so on, they have obvous gray to the development of toursm, the same as many other related factors for economc and envronmental development also show some gray, so can use gray theory to toursm, economy and envronment of these three systems. Grey theory n toursm, economc and envronmental aspects of the applcaton s not much, and only based on both of them to study, such as the study of toursm and economc relatons are: Yang of guangx [2] (2010) by usng grey correlaton analyss method to analyss the nbound toursm demand nfluence factors and the relatonshp between the nbound toursm traffc and nternatonal tourst foregn exchange ncome, to chongqng as an example the rank correlaton respectvely, found that the bggest factors affectng nbound toursm demand n chongqng s travel related nfrastructure level and the condtons of toursm resources, and puts forward ncreasng toursm nfrastructure nvestment, mprove the vsblty of toursm resources such as conducve to acceleratng the development of nbound toursm n chongqng fast advce; Zhang Haguang and Sun Chunlan [3] (2012) study of cultural toursm ndustry n shandong provnce, n the constructon of the ndex system affectng the development of toursm ndustry, usng the method of grey correlaton analyss reveals the domnant factor, the results found that passenger traffc, fscal spendng n educaton, change n gross regonal product play an mportant role on the development of cultural toursm ndustry; WengGang mnhe L Lngyan [4] (2015) combned wth "twelfth fve-year" mportant strategc plannng, nfluence on toursm. The man factors nfluencng the development of toursm economy n Hebe provnce were analyzed by usng grey correlaton analyss. The results showed that the hghest degree of busness mleage of Hebe Provnce, namely, the convenent and drect mpact of the ralway transportaton, Fu Xangyang and Huang Taozhen [5] (2015) used a regresson analyss method to select Inner Mongola toursm economc evaluaton ndex, based on the gray correlaton analyss method, and found that the economc support factor and resdents lvng standard of Inner Mongola toursm economc development. Study on economy and envronment: Fu Peng [6] (2010) by usng correlaton method of Grey Relatonal Analyss on Page 1

2 Chang-Zhu-Tan ndustral structure development and envronmental qualty of pollutants were analyzed, results showed that the thrd largest ndustry's contrbuton to economc growth, and the development of related ndustres on the polluton of the envronment can not be gnored; Qn Dongcheng, Zhou Yaozh and Sh Qngdong [7] (2012) usng grey relatonal analyss model, the correlaton of Xnjang's economc growth and envronmental ssues were analyzed, the results show that there s hgh correlaton between economc growth and envronmental ssues; and L Zuo Qng and Jang Huyun [8] (2013) n Zhejang Provnce as an example, usng the method of Grey Relatonal Analyss on the correlaton between economc growth and envronment the problem analyss, consstent wth Qn dongcheng. On the bass of the relevant ndex system, the man factors are the man factors, and the development strateges and suggestons are put forward. At present, the author has not found the grey theory n toursm and envronment, and the man factors of dfferent regons are dfferent, therefore, ths paper takes Hunan Provnce as an example, analyzes the relatonshp between toursm, economy and envronment, and puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestons n Hunan provnce. II. GRAY CORRELATION ANALYSIS THEORY The gray theory s proposed by Professor Deng Julong of Huazhong Unversty of Scence and Technology n 1980s. It s a part of the study of the nformaton s known, and some of the nformaton s unknown and the applcaton of the phenomenon of uncertanty. It s through the "small sample" of known nformaton generaton, development to understand the realty of the world, to acheve the system's behavor and evoluton of the law of the correct grasp and descrpton. Snce the publcaton of Control Problems of Grey System The, the gray theory has been appled wdely n varous dscplnes, and has acheved good results. 2.1 Gray correlaton analyss method The gray correlaton analyss method s as follows. (1) Determnng the analyss sequence If there s a m reference sequence, remember A A A ; there are n sequences, remember to 1 2 m B B B put these sequences together, formng to 1 2 n the followng matrx A11 A12 A1 k A21 A22 A2 k Am 1 Am 2 Amk B11 B12 B 1k B21 B22 B2k B B B + n1 n2 nk (m n) k For ease of descrpton, Wrte t down to x j,among them the = (m+n), j=k, expressed as I row and column J (2) Sequence non dmensonal treatment Because of the dfference of the measurement unts of the data, the standard treatment s carred out n the front of the correlaton analyss. In ths paper, the standard data method s as follows: set up the frst I (=1,2,... (m+n) the average value of the sample s the standard data for: X j xj x = rms The root mean square of the I ndex s calculated as: rms = k j= 1 k x 2 j Transformaton form s as follows: rms, Page 2

3 X11 X12 X1k X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X k m1 m2 mk ( m+ 1)1 (m + 1)2 (m + 1) k (m+ 2)1 (m+ 2)2 (m+ 2) k (m + n)1 (m+ n)2 (m + n) k (3) The gray correlaton coeffcent matrx (m + n) k Accordng to the exstng research results, combned wth the current stuaton of Hunan provnce's toursm economy, based on the relablty and avalablty of data, ths paper selects the data ndcators and the correspondng descrpton as shown n Fgure 1. Data ndex 1For the two grade: (k) = X m(k) X m+ (k) ; Economc Toursm Envronmen 2Calculaton of extreme value from (k) : s tal Scence max max X m(k) X m + (k) k ; mn mn X m(k) X m + (k) k ; 3Set resoluton factor: Ths paper takes 0.5; 4Fnd the correlaton coeffcent: let the above values nto the formula mn+ ρ max δj = ; + ρ max 5Seek the degree of correlaton: j n 1 r = ζ ( k) n k = 1 (4) result analyss After gettng the gray correlaton matrx, the numercal value of the correlaton degree of each ndex s compared, and the nfluence degree of the ndex s obtaned. X1:Per X2 : The average X3 : Total Y1:Total Y2:Total Y3:Passenger Z1:Sewage Z2: Bult-up Z3: Lvng Capta:GDP annual wages of staffl revenue number of number of volume treatment rate area green garbage (mllonn) and workers (mllonn) domestc toursts coverage rate harmless Fg. 1: Toursm - Economy - Envronment Indcator Collected from the "2008~2013 Hunan Provnce Statstcal Yearbook" to the relevant raw data, after fnshng the vsble table 1, Table 1 related sequence ndex raw data year X X X Y Y Y Z III. GRAY CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF TOURISM AND ECONOMY AND Z ENVIRONMENT IN HUNAN PROVINCE Z Index selecton The purpose of ths paper s to study the relatonshp 3.2 Calculatng the gray correlaton degree between toursm, economy and envronment of the three. In ths paper, we use R language to calculate the gray relatonal degree, to get the gray relatonal matrx, the Page 3

4 orgnal data s used as a comparson sequence, the orgnal data as the reference sequence, the above data wll be standardzed and then use gray correlaton analyss method to calculate the gray correlaton degree, the results are as follows. Table 2 Grey Incdence Matrx of the Index Comparson Reference X1 X2 X3 y1 y2 y3 X X X y y y z z By the gray correlaton matrx can be the ndex for the reference sequence of gray correlaton degree of order, n whch the numercal value of the black box n the system, the gray correlaton degree of gray correlaton, the sort of results table 3. Table 3 Gray Relatonal Degree of Each Index X X X Y Y Y Z Z Z Comparson Reference X X X Y Y Y Z Z Z As can be seen from the table 3, the system nternal (black box) the sze of the respectve table gray relatonal order Z2 other than the basc front, ndcatng the ratonalty and the scentfc nature of the selected ndcators. The followng s an analyss of the results. 3.3 Result Analyss From the overall pont of vew, the gray relatonal degree of each ndex n the gray relatonal matrx has reached 0.8, whch has a hgh degree of correlaton. Combned wth the gray correlaton degree, the results can be compared wth the results of the reference sequences: (1) The sze of the sort of the grey related degree between the per capta GDP of Hunan Provnce and each ndex: passenger volume > fnancal total ncome > on-the-job workers n the average wage > recepton Travel total number > domestc travel total number > lvng garbage harmless treatment rate > sewage treatment rate > bult-up area green coverage rate. Hunan provnce showed that the per capta GDP and passenger traffc volume of the largest, ranked second, the three s the economc ndcators, followed by the recepton of the total number of toursts and the total number of domestc toursm, and the relatve envronmental ndcators. (2) Remove the nter economc ndcators rankng, respectvely to post year of average wage (x2) and total fscal revenue (x3) for the sort of reference sequence of gray correlaton degree the same: passenger volume > recepton Travel total number > domestc travel total number > lvng garbage harmless treatment rate > sewage treatment rate > bult-up area green coverage rate. Combned (1) analyss shows that the ndex of the gray correlaton degree of the economc ndcators of the ndex poston of toursm n the frst and the envronmental ndcators, and therefore, the mpact of toursm ndcators on the economc ndcators s more. (3) The ndex of domestc toursm revenue n Hunan Provnce between the grey correlaton degree of orderng: recepton Travel total number > on-the-job worker year of average wage > fnancal total ncome > passenger Page 4

5 volume > per capta GDP> bult area green coverage rate > lvng garbage harmless treatment rate of sewage treatment rate >. The total number of toursts and the total number of toursts and the gray correlaton degree between the sze of the sort, n these sort of economc ndcators and envronmental ndcators, and therefore the economc ndcators and envronmental ndcators of the larger relevance. (4) The ndex of Hunan Provnce passenger traffc between grey correlaton degree sze sortng: per capta GDP> on-the-job workers n average annual salary > fscal revenue > recepton Travel total number > domestc travel total number > lvng garbage harmless treatment rate > sewage treatment rate > bult-up area green coverage rate. In ths sort of economc ndcators, the top three, and the correlaton s the largest of the GDP, combned wth (2) analyss shows that toursm and the economy has a strong correlaton, and the economc mpact of toursm more. (5) Hunan Provnce sewage treatment rate between the ndex and the grey correlaton degree of sze sortng: garbage harmless treatment rate > passenger volume > per capta GDP> fnancal total ncome > on-the-job workers n the average wage > recepton Travel total number > domestc toursm revenue > bult-up area green coverage rate. Hunan sewage treatment rate and garbage harmless treatment rate s the largest, followed by passenger traffc volume and per capta GDP, whch s related to the degree of gray correlaton between the number of lfe garbage harmless treatment rate and the gray degree of correlaton between the ndcators, the rankng of the per capta GDP. (6) Bult-up area green coverage rate between the ndex and the grey correlaton degree of sze sortng: domestc toursm revenue > recepton Travel total number > passenger volume > per capta GDP> on-the-job worker year average wage > fnancal total ncome > garbage harmless of processng rate > sewage treatment rate. Ths sort of toursm targets n the top three, wth the largest correlaton s the total domestc toursm revenue, combned wth (5) analyss shows that toursm and the economy has a certan degree of relevance, n whch the mpact of toursm on the envronment more. IV. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Through grey correlaton analyss, the relatonshp between toursm and economy has a strong correlaton, and both of them have a certan mpact on the envronment. In the development of the economy, the development of the toursm ndustry wll ncrease rapdly, whle the development of the toursm ndustry can promote the economc growth, but n the process of economc and toursm development, toursm development has a greater mpact on the envronment. In order to meet the development of toursm, the man factors that restrct the development of Hunan's toursm development are the man factors that restrct the development of Hunan's toursm development. As the ncrease of passenger traffc, the traffc system should be mproved to meet the needs of people. In addton, the gray correlaton degree between , whch s a hgh degree of correlaton, shows that the coordnaton of the three s not enough, and the effect of toursm and economc development s stll not neglgble. Grey relatonal analyss can objectvely reflect the actual relatonshp among the factors n the system. Ths paper analyzes the relatonshp between the three partes n Hunan toursm, economy and envronment by calculatng the grey relatonal degree, and provdes the relevant theoretcal gudance for the ndustry, whch has some practcal sgnfcance. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We acknowledge Hunan provnce unversty students research learnng and nnovatve expermental project (2015). Page 5

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