Win-Win-Win: Benefits of Regulating Vehicle Emissions on Air Quality, Health, & the Economy

Transcription

1 Win-Win-Win: Benefits of Regulating Vehicle Emissions on Air Quality, Health, & the Economy Department of Environmental Sciences, June 19, 2014

2 1 Introduction 2 Win1: Air Quality 3 Win2: Health 4 Win3: Economy 5 Conclusions

3 Air Pollution Air pollution causes low air quality, adverse health impacts, and reduces agricultural yields. Source: sustainablecitiescollective.com, US EPA

4 Tropospheric ozone and particulate matter Ozone precursors: carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x : NO + NO 2 ), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

5 Tropospheric ozone and particulate matter Ozone precursors: carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x : NO + NO 2 ), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ): created by a chemical reaction of ozone precursors (CO, NO x, and VOCs) and sunlight

6 Tropospheric ozone and particulate matter Ozone precursors: carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x : NO + NO 2 ), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ): created by a chemical reaction of ozone precursors (CO, NO x, and VOCs) and sunlight Particulate matter (PM 2.5 ): direct emission or formed through physical/chemical processes

7 Vehicles are becoming a major air pollution source Vehicle ownership is increasing rapidly in China. In Beijing, vehicles emit 46% of NO x, 78% of CO, & 83% of HC (Hao et al., 1996)

8 Diffusion of Vehicle Emission Standards

9 Diffusion of Vehicle Emission Standards The United States Clean Air Act in 1970 mandated 90% emissions reductions from vehicles.

10 Diffusion of Vehicle Emission Standards Japan followed suit in 1975 with the US Clean Air Act.

11 Diffusion of Vehicle Emission Standards EU countries followed next.

12 Diffusion of Vehicle Emission Standards There were three similar standards at the end of 1992.

13 Diffusion of Vehicle Emission Standards Even developing countries adopted these standards.

14 Questions Why do countries adopt vehicle emission standards? What are the impacts of emissions regulation?

15 Questions Why do countries adopt vehicle emission standards? What are the impacts of emissions regulation? Impact on Asian air quality by regulating Chinese vehicles Impact on health in China and Japan by this regulation Mechanisms of policy diffusion and its impact on the economy

16 Methodology to analyze regional air quality Update detailed emission inventory (REAS) for road transport sector in China. (Collaboration with NIES, Japan) Emission scenarios: 2000 Baseline - No emission standards 2020 No Policy 2020 Euro 3 Quantify the impacts on regional atmospheric concentrations Regional chemical transport model WRF/Chem Initial/Lateral boundary conditions from the global model MOZART

17 Transport Sector Emissions Saikawa et al., 2011

18 Emission factors

19 Scenario comparison Total emissions in China

20 Scenario comparison

21 Regional chemical transport model WRF/Chem Regional 3-dimensional chemical transport model (Grell et al., 2005; Fast et al., 2006) Simulates chemistry & transport of 39 species Horizontal resolution: 40km x 40km Vertical levels: 31 from the surface to 50hPa Fully coupled online model For each scenario, we performed four 1-month simulations (January, April, July & October)

22 Positive Impact on Air Quality Atmospheric O 3 mixing ratio decreases significantly simply by China s implementation of the Euro 3 emission standards Saikawa et al., 2011

23 Positive Impact on Air Quality PM 2.5 concentrations also decrease in the region but the impact is primarily within China Saikawa et al., 2011

24 Win1: Regulating vehicle emissions improves air quality Total Chinese vehicle emissions are reduced by 78% (CO), 74% (NO x ), and 61% (PM 2.5 ) by adopting the Euro 3 emission standards relative to no regulation in Maximum reductions from BAU to Euro 3: 22 ppbv O 3 in China, 6-7 ppbv in Korea 31 µg m 3 PM 2.5 in China, 1-3 µg m 3 in Korea/Japan

25 Methodology to analyze health impacts Use MIT Emissions Prediction Policy Analysis Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model to calculate health impacts Use population-weighted concentrations in China and Japan for the two scenarios in 2020 Use the concentration-response function for O 3 and PM 2.5 Calculate the increase in welfare in the two countries by the reduction in adverse health impacts Saikawa et al., in prep.

26 Positive Impact on Health China Japan O3 PM2.5 O3 PM2.5 Respiratory hospital admissions 275,000 61,500 4, Cerebrovascular hospital admissions 0 44, Cardiovascular hospital admissions 0 38, Symptom days 725,000, ,000,000 13,000,000 3,010,000 Acute Mortality 62,000 49,300 1, Chronic bronchitis (adult) 0 5,520, ,500 Congestive heart failure (elderly) 0 8, Asthma attacks (all asthma) 3,770, ,600 0 Bronchodilator (asthma population) 48,300,000 37,000, , ,400 Lower Respiratory Symptoms 0 583,000, ,010,000 Mortality from chronic exposure to PM2.5 42, Saikawa et al., in prep.

27 Positive Impact on Health & GDP Welfare increase in China and Japan in 2020 due to China s implementation of the Euro 3 vehicle emission standards China Japan From reduced O 3 $5.77B $1.80B From reduced PM 2.5 $27.60B $2.06B Total welfare gain $33.37B $3.87B 2010 GDP % Saikawa et al., in prep.

28 Win2: Regulating vehicle emissions reduces adverse health impacts Regulating Chinese vehicle emissions reduces premature mortality in China and Japan. Possible reduction in mortality: China: 42,700 from chronic exposure to PM 2.5 and 11,300 from acute mortality Japan: 190 from chronic exposure to PM 2.5 and 1,300 from acute mortality The increase in Japanese GDP is approximately equivalent to the amount of environmental aid Japan has given to China over the years.

29 Why do countries adopt emission standards? Countries adopted emission standards to enhance the competitiveness of their automobile industries. Except for low-income countries, automobile exports increase after adoption.

30 Mechanisms of Diffusion 4 major mechanisms in the Policy Diffusion literature (Simmons, Dobbin, and Garrett 2006; Shipan and Volden 2008): Competitiveness International Pressure Normative Emulation Learning The California Effect (Vogel, 1997)

31 Competitiveness Mechanism Importer Pressure Exporting countries adopt emission standards when major importing countries adopt standards

32 Competitiveness Mechanism Importer Pressure Exporting countries adopt emission standards when major importing countries adopt standards Competitor Pressure Exporting countries adopt emission standards when competing exporting countries adopt standards

33 Methodology Analysis 1. Event History Analysis Identify mechanisms of policy diffusion Analysis 2. Gravity Model of Trade Assess impact of policy diffusion on competitive advantage in trade

34 Data on Emission Standards Adoption Created a database of the years that countries first adopted vehicle emission standards Dichotomous coding Code 0 without adoption Code 1 with adoption

35 Competitiveness Mechanisms Importer Pressure: Share of automobile exports to countries with standards

36 Competitiveness Mechanisms Importer Pressure: Share of automobile exports to countries with standards Competitor Pressure: Index to measure an exporter s market share and diversity of the market

37 Control variables International Pressure: ODA & Official aid as share of GDP Normative Emulation: Number of countries that have adopted standards Learning: Number of environmental IGOs of which a country is a member CO 2 emissions from transport sector (proxy for tail-pipe emissions) Real GDP per capita EU membership Automobile exports share of GDP

38 Standards Adoption Tested using a rare events logistic regression Analyzed all countries Cluster by country Include year dummies Saikawa, 2013

39 Results Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Base High Developing Income Countries Diffusion Mechanisms Competitive Pressure Importer Pressure Emission Standards Share ** * ** (0.711) (1.128) (0.912) Competitive Pressure Competitor Pressure Auto Exports Status ** ** * (0.106) (0.100) (1.479) Controls International Pressure International Aid Share of GDP (0.1.52) (1.229) (1.966) Normative Emulation Standards *** ** * (0.036) (0.036) (0.085) Learning Environmental IGO Membership ** * * (0.056) (0.063) (0.094) Saikawa, 2013 N

40 Automobile exports increase after the adoption Saikawa, 2013

41 Impact of standards on automobile exports Gravity Model of Trade Standard framework to assess the effects of bilateral trade Estimates the impacts of emission standards on automobile exports

42 Impact of standards on automobile exports 4 variables to consider: Std it : exporter s adoption of standards Std jt : importer s adoption of standards Both t : both exporter/importer adopting standards ln(std t ): log number of countries with standards Saikawa, 2013

43 Positive Impact on the Economy High Upper-Middle Lower-Middle Exporter Standards *** ** *** (0.069) (0.202) (0.370) Importer Standards *** *** (0.161) (0.163) (0.160) Both Standards *** ** (0.160) (0.265) (0.560) Log Number of Standards *** *** *** (0.042) (0.126) (0.177) N Saikawa, 2013

44 Adoption of emission standards results in more automobile patents Adoption of emission standards gives countries a competitive advantage China Brazil Number of vehicle patents Number of vehicle patents Year Year Saikawa and Urpelainen, 2014

45 Win3: Regulating vehicle emissions has positive impact on the economy Enhances economic development Increases the competitiveness of a country s automobile industry Increases automobile exports Increases technology transfer in developing countries

46 Regulating vehicle emissions has 3 positive impacts Win 1: Reducing vehicle emissions leads to improved air quality.

47 Regulating vehicle emissions has 3 positive impacts Win 1: Reducing vehicle emissions leads to improved air quality. Win 2: Improved air quality results in reduced adverse health impacts.

48 Regulating vehicle emissions has 3 positive impacts Win 1: Reducing vehicle emissions leads to improved air quality. Win 2: Improved air quality results in reduced adverse health impacts. Win 3: The economy also benefits by reduced mortality and also by stronger automobile industry.

49 Acknowledgments Air Quality Health Jun-ichi Kurokawa (Acid Rain Center), Toshimasa Ohara (NIES), J. Borken-Kleefeld (IIASA), Masayuki Takigawa (JAMSTEC), Denise Mauzerall (Princeton), and Larry W. Horowitz (GFDL) Noelle Selin (MIT) The Economy Others Christina L. Davis (Princeton), Daniel Y. Kono (UC Davis), Johannes Urpelainen (Columbia) Ron Prinn (MIT), C. Adam Schlosser (MIT), Matt Rigby (MIT), Gil Rozman (Princeton), M. V. Ramana (Princeton)

50 Vehicle emissions are also related to climate change Black carbon absorbs light and thus warms the atmosphere. By reducing BC, we reduce positive radiative forcing. Sulfate aerosols and organic carbon cool the atmosphere by scattering the light. So by reducing them, we increase positive radiative forcing.