Wind Energy Growth: Technology in Context

Transcription

1 GE Energy Wind Energy Growth: Technology in Context Andreas M. Lippert Manager: Alternative Energy Technologies GE Global Research Nov 2009

2 New energy technology growth What it takes: Big domestic marketplace Scalable, competitive supply chain Best technologies Strong intellectual property protection Free trade and competition. Only if we create a large domestic marketplace 2

3 The promise of big markets creates technology leadership

4 Nuclear industry born from U.S. government R&D 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s U.S. Gov t funded R&D U.S. nuclear expansion Worldwide expansion U.S. stagnation Rest of world continues to build 1 st Gen III - ABWR Today: 370 GW of nuclear generation worldwide 436 reactors in 31 countries 104 reactors in U.S. Nuclear plants worldwide U.S. France Japan 27% 17% 12% 44% Rest of World U.S. government investment has created the technology used for majority of nuclear plants worldwide 4 Source: WNA, IAEA

5 Heavy duty gas turbine byproduct of defense spend U.S. government funding jet engine during WWII Leading to First Gas Turbine American Society of Mechanical Engineers Landmark s First U.S. jet engine built Development of land based technology beginning of commercial application for energy generation First gas turbine connected to U.S. grid Gas turbine technology generates 20% of all U.S. electrical power ~600 GW of combined-cycle generation operating worldwide 5

6 Consistent Europe policy created wind industry Cumulative GW '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Germany Feed In Tariff (FIT) Denmark FIT Spain FIT EU White Paper 40GW by 2010 France FIT EU Renewables Directive 1 22% Ren. Elect. by % in 2001 UK Green Certificate Sweden Green Certificate Poland Green Certifcate Romania Green Certifcate EU Renewables Directive % Ren. Elect. by

7 The cleaner energy leadership race

8 Is public energy R&D spending enough? Government funded energy R&D by country (as % of GDP) 0.25% 0.20% 0.15% United States Japan Europe (Big Five) 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% Source: International Energy Agency, R&D budgets, 2009 Japan investing ~3X more than U.S. in energy R&D (as % of GDP) 8

9 Domestic agendas drive leadership Forecasted power gen industry orders: West Europe East Europe China North America 13 GW 37 GW Latin America 32 GW 53 GW Africa 3 GW MidEast 17 GW 3-year global orders (GW) Coal 208 CCGT/SCGT 127 Nuclear 25 Hydro 44 India 78 GW Wind 57 Solar 9 Other 13 TOTAL GW Asia 77 GW 9 Source: GE Energy forecast, 2009

10 Future technology and market leadership

11 EU Wind Energy Roadmap GE has participated actively in TPWind, and supports the EWEA Wind Technology Roadmap Concrete, transparent plan Public-private partnership Concerted process with stakeholders Strong EU government support is crucial; EU SET-Plan provides exemplary funding vision Not just about turbine technology but infrastructure Difference on 10-20MW turbine by 2020 aggressive timeframe but accept this as a vision to grow technology development all around 11

12 U.S. wind industry U.S. wind installs (GW) PTC ARRA (stimulus) Source: GE + AWEA analysis Key points U.S. at ~5% renewable electricity now 2.7% Wind (end of 09 est.) 1.7% Biomass 0.5% Geothermal 0.1% Solar 2012 target in H.R drives zero renewable installs Waxman/Markey > 6% by % net after efficiency 12% by 2012 RES target maintains 2008 production and job levels Proposed RES targets require ZERO new renewables 12

13 Wind installed base (GW) Global wind outlook Europe 1st 2nd 3rd China U.S. EU Renewable Energy Directive MM wind job years National Energy Administration/NDRC* State New Energy Revitalization Plan *Proposed increase to 100 GW target MM wind job years American Clean Energy & Security Act MM wind job years % of wind industry outside U.S. 13

14 Global Smart Grid landscape Implementation easier with reliable distribution systems Canada + Infra stimulus + Provincial mandates U.S. + $4.5B SG stimulus + Timing 2 years + Standards Environmental mandates U.K. + Environmental mandates + Olympics village + Existing network Timing France + Stimulus Spain + Stimulus E.U. + Environmental mandates - Timing Fragmented vision China + Energy stimulus Australia + Mandates + Energy stimulus Timing Japan + Existing network S. Korea + Policy 14

15 Exploring Energy Storage 1 example 15

16 Free trade and competition

17 Cooperate globally to restore growth Challenge More and more countries slipping into protectionism, particularly where they believe clean energy jobs are at stake Solution Take offensive to eliminate trade barriers Governments should move rapidly to roll back existing barriers and open markets start with a WTO environmental goods and services agreement Governments should challenge each other for violations of WTO rules 17

18 Promote innovation Challenge Some countries proposing compulsory licensing of green technologies Solution Innovation Essential to addressing climate change at lower cost Drives competitiveness and green jobs Results primarily from private R&D Requires return on investment Based on intellectual property protection 18

19 Maintain financing Challenge Deployment of new and cleaner technologies requires financing Solution Special climate change funds under United Nations Framework Convention should be: Available for all low carbon technologies Open to private sector proposals Extended to all developing countries Carbon credit procedures should be streamlined Export credit agencies can also contribute Open in key countries, where now closed 19

20 Summary Cleaner, smarter energy including wind - is a global, growing and competitive market To succeed, requires: Big domestic marketplace supported by consistent policies & government investment Scalable, competitive supply chain Best technologies Strong intellectual property protection Free trade and competition 20

21 GE Energy Wind Energy Growth: Technology in Context Andreas M. Lippert Manager: Alternative Energy Technologies GE Global Research Nov 2009