Preparing for the future? Adaptive capacity to climate change. Katrina Brown University of East Anglia

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1 Preparing for the future? Adaptive capacity to climate change Katrina Brown University of East Anglia

2 Summary Current emphasis on Adaptation as a response to climate change in developing countries is problematic, not least because of the difficulties of multiple stressors, uncertainty, maladaptation A Resilience approach helps to overcome some of these problems Greater focus on Adaptive Capacity can help formulate more effective policy at multiple But can Adaptive Capacity support Transformation?

3 A Resilience approach the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks Linked social ecological system Expect change, manage for change Expect the unexpected Different types of change Interactions between multiple stressors Non-linear change - Thresholds and Tipping Points, Crises as providing windows of opportunity Cross scale issues

4 How do current policies affect Resilience? Current conservation and development policies may undermine resilience Evidence from Mozambique and Tanzania Bunce, Brown, Rosendo, 2010 Current climate change responses undermine long-term resilience and adaptive capacity Evidence from responses to climate change Adger, Brown et al., 2011 Misfits and maladaptation

5 MPAs, climate change and livelihoods in Tanzania

6 Dams, climate change and livelihoods in Mozambique

7 Current Climate Change responses 9 case studies developing and developed countries 3 critical factors Problem framing Governance structures Feedbacks Current responses undermine long term resilience

8 Limited PROBLEM FRAMING Inclusive Current responses to climate change Water management Brazil Lake management Uganda Hurricane preparedness Cayman Islands Coastal management UK Drought management Kenya Drought management Brazil Pine bark beetle Canada Agro-prairie management Canada Biofuels USA Year Years Decades

9 Why do these maladaptations happen? Development and conservation policies do not take longterm climate change into account They reflect international, not local priorities They do not take account of interactions between multiple stressors they address one impact They take a static not a dynamic view of change

10 a focus on Adaptive Capacity Adaptive capacity provides key insights into sources of resilience and vulnerability Adaptive capacity the preconditions necessary to enable adaptation to take place, where adaptation is a process or activity undertaken in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of environmental stresses or take advantages of new opportunities Adaptive capacity is a latent characteristic which must be activated in order to effect adaptation

11 Components of Adaptive Capacity AC will depend on: Recognition of the need to adapt Belief that adaptation is possible and desirable Willingness to undertake adaptation Availability of resources necessary for implementation of adaptation measures Ability to deploy resources in an appropriate way External constraints, barriers and enablers to implementation Some indicators Infrastructure Technology /Gear diversity Social capital Occupational multiplicity Occupational mobility Material assets Change anticipation Recognition of causality Importance of socio-cognitive and cultural factors, including identity and attachment to place and occupation; Agency; Innovation

12 Household analysis of Adaptive Capacity McClanahan et al., 2010

13 Probability of exit Adaptive capacity of Kenyan fishers related to household wealth Wealthiest households Moderate households Poorest households No. household occupations 16

14 Vulnerability to coral bleaching in the Western Indian Ocean Area of coral reef (km 2 ) No take area (NTA) (km 2 ) NTA as % of reef area Madagascar % Mauritius % Seychelles % Kenya % Tanzania % The sustainability of this protection strategy under climate change scenarios is questionable - * Seychelles Kenya W. Madagascar Tanzania E. Madagascar Mauritius

15 Cinner et al., 2012

16 Leverage points to reduce vulnerability of coral reef communities International National Local Interventions to enhance adaptive capacity Interventions to ameliorate sensitivity Interventions to lower exposure Interventions which tackle two or three facets of vulnerability simultaneously Effective mobilisation of relief funds Mobilisation of funding to invest in infrastructure Regional conservation planning Adaptation investments Climate change mitigation Social safety nets Strengthen community groups and infrastructure Improved information and market terms Seasonal gear and access restrictions Evacuations from most vulnerable sites Adaptation planning Investment in coastal infrastructure Planned migration Strengthen conservation of reefs Migration to noncoastal areas Investment in alternative energy and industry Enhance capacities and health status of fishing communities Livelihood diversification out of fishing farming Short-term Medium-term Long-term

17 Where next for adaptive capacity? Do we need a different set of capacities to transform?

18 Preparing for the future? Adaptive capacity to climate change Thank you

19 Overview What do we know about adaptive capacity? What can we learn from studies of vulnerability and adaptive capacity? How can adaptive capacity support interventions? Where next for adaptive capacity?

20 Resilience is.. the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks The RA website glossary at

21 Insights into Vulnerability VULNERABILITY (V) = Potential impact (PI) Adaptive capacity (AC) PI = Exposure (E) + Sensitivity or dependence (D) Exposure: The nature and degree to which a system experiences environmental or socio-political stress Sensitivity: The extent to which a human or natural system can absorb the impacts without suffering long-term harm or some significant state change Adaptive capacity the preconditions necessary to enable adaptation to take place, where adaptation is a process or activity undertaken in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of environmental stresses or take advantages of new opportunities

22 Maladaptation action taken ostensibly to avoid or reduce vulnerability to climate change that impacts adversely on, or increases the vulnerability of other systems, sectors or social groups 5 Pathways to maladaptation: increase emissions of greenhouse gases disproportionately burden the most vulnerable have high opportunity costs reduce incentives to adapt set paths that limit the choices available to future generations

23 What do we learn from analysis of vulnerability and adaptation at different scales? No simple cause and effect relationships

24 What affects fish catch at the Kenya coast?

25 What do we learn from analysis of vulnerability and adaptation at different scales? No simple cause and effect relationships Climate change interacts with other stressors

26 What drives change at the Kenyan coast?

27 What do we learn from analysis of vulnerability and adaptation at different scales? No simple cause and effect relationships Climate change interacts with other stressors Lack of precise data on impacts

28 What surprises could affect the Kenyan coast?

29 At a regional scale: Vulnerability to coral bleaching in the Western Indian Ocean Area of coral reef (km 2 ) No take area (NTA) (km 2 ) NTA as % of reef area Madagascar % Mauritius % Seychelles % Kenya % Tanzania % The sustainability of this protection strategy under climate change scenarios is questionable - * Seychelles Kenya W. Madagascar Tanzania E. Madagascar Mauritius