Planning for New Hampshire's Changing Climate: Economic Development for a Sustainable Future. Blending Climate Change Solutions with.

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2 Planning for New Hampshire's Changing Climate: Blending Climate Change Solutions with Economic Development for a Sustainable Future Cameron Wake Carbon Solutions New England Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS) University of New Hampshire Sustainable New England NNECAPA Oct 2010 Portsmouth, NH

3 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Business as Usual Clean Energy & Efficiency Vostok Ice Core Current 400, , , ,000 0 Years Before 2100 AD IPCC 2007 carbon dioxide (ppmv)

4 Arctic Sea Ice: Sept 1980 vs Sept 2007 University of Illinois - The Cryosphere Today

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6 Northeast Winter Temperature Trends Temperature ( o F) Year Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR

7 Northeast Winter Temperature Trends Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR

8 Trends in One Inch Precipitation Events Change over 5 decades (events) Increase Decrease 0.0 to to to to 10 statistically significant (p<0.1) 0.0 to to 5.0 Spierre and Wake, 2009

9 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Daily Discharge for Lamprey River near Newmarket, NH July July / FIS 100 year flood (7300 cfs) 4/ / / Year discharge (cubic feet per second)

10 Relative Sea Level Rise Saco. Maine 17 Apr 2007 Boston New York Relative Sea Level Rise (inches) SW Shore, Nantucket, 18 Apr Year Data from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level

11 Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Collaboration between Union of Concerned Scientists and 50 independent scientists Geographic Scope Nine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania Peer Review Climate Dynamics, papers in Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change, 2008

12 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

13 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Rising Annual Temperatures observations higher emissions lower emissions Higher: o F Lower: o F 2 o F warming since 1970

14 Summer heat index: How hot summers will feel in New Hampshire Days per year over 90 o F

15 Increasing winter precipitation OBS Higher emissions Lower emissions As temperatures rise, more falling as rain, less as snow

16 Extreme Precipitation Events Increase Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast Under both emissions scenarios -rainfall is expected to become more intense -periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent Bridge over Axe Handle Brook, Rochester, NH May credit: Associated Press

17 Drought 1-3 months 3-6 months >6 months credit: Associated Press

18 Vulnerability of Ski Resorts to Climate Change Higher Emissions

19 Changes in Habitat Suitability for Different Forest Types by Late-Century AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty Julie Hart

20 Late-Century Range of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

21 Impacts on Agriculture: Dairy

22 Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Traditional Fruit Crops May Suffer in a Warmer Climate

23 Boston: The 100-Year Coastal Flood in 2100 (Higher-Emissions Scenario; 16 inches of SLR) credit: Associated Press

24 Portland, ME: The 100-Year Coastal Flood in 2100 (Higher-Emissions Scenario; 4.6 ft of SLR) Climate Change in the Casco Bay Watershed:

25 NH Climate Action Plan One of the largest, most diverse collections of leading NH citizens Promotes growth of new jobs and renewable energy development Reduces energy costs Identifies 67 recommended actions buildings electricity generation, transportation & land use natural resources government action adaptation Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 44% below 2005 levels by % below 2005 levels by 2050 More info at:

26 Sustain the unique quality of life in NH Avoid the significant costs of responding to a changing climate Create jobs through development of in-state sources of energy Spur economic growth and reduce $$$ spent on energy through energy efficiency THE OPPORTUNITY NH Climate Action Plan

27 Overarching Strategies to Achieve Goals 1. Maximize energy efficiency in buildings & transportation 2. Increase renewable & low-emitting heat & electric power sources 3. Protect our natural resources to enhance the amount of carbon sequestration 4. Develop an integrated education, outreach and workforce training program 5. Develop plans to adapt to existing and potential climate change

28 New Hampshire Climate Action Plan (March 2009)

29 New Hampshire Economic Benefits vs Avoided CO2e Emissions in 2025 $1,600 $1,200 $800 Buildings Electricity Generation Transportation Natural Resources CAFE 2009 Existing residential 60% less energy use Existing commercial 50% less energy use Fuel efficiency feebate $400 $0 VMT based registration fees Lower highway speeds Heavy duty fuel efficiency Avoid forest land conversion Integrated forestry and wood plan use New construction Net-zero energy Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Promote durable wood products Avoided Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMTCO2e) Econoimc Benefits (Savings - Costs) Million $

30 New Hampshire Greenhouse Gas Emissions NH GHG Emissions (from EIA) NH 'Business as Usual' GHG Emissions (From NH Climate Action Plan) NH Climate Action Plan Target GHG Emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMTCO2e) Year

31 NH GSP (Billion $2009) NH GHG Emissions vs Gross State Product NH GHG Emissions NH Gross State Product Year Greehouse Gas Emissions (MMTCO2e)

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33 The Sustainable Learning Community: One University s Journey to the Future John Aber, Tom Kelly, Bruce Mallory (Eds). University Press of New England