Luciano Losekann Montevideo, October 28, 2016

Transcription

1 RENEWABLE ENERGY DIFFUSION IN BRAZIL Luciano Losekann Montevideo, October 28, 2016

2 RENEWABLE ENERGY PREDOMINANCE IN BRAZIL The Brazilian electricity sector has dealt with renewable predominance and intermittency for a long time Hydro predominance Highly volatile generation Installed Capacity Interconnected System (GW) July/2016 Source: CCEE Gás Natural 8% Carvão 2% Outros 1% Óleo 4% Eólica 6% Biomassa 7% Nuclear 1% Hidro 71% Total : 160 GW Hidro (1996): 86%

3 RENEWABLE ENERGY PREDOMINANCE IN BRAZIL Hydrology Historic data GWavg The Brazilian electricity sector has dealt with renewable predominance and intermittency for a long time Hydro predominance Highly volatile generation 4 x 6 x

4 TWh THE BRAZILIAN WAY TO DEAL WITH RENEWABLE INTERMITTENCY The Brazilian solution was based on Large Hydropower reservoirs Continental Transmission system Complementary thermo power generation Storage Capacity on Brazilian hydropower reservoirs- TWh SE/CO S N NE Regulation Capacity of Brazilian Resevoirs (SIN) Storage Capacity Monthly Consumption+losses = 5 months

5 THE BRAZILIAN WAY TO DEAL WITH RENEWABLE INTERMITTENCY The Brazilian solution was based on Large Hydropower reservoirs Continental Transmission system Complementary thermo power generation Brazilian Interconnected System 98% BR Consumption

6 THE BRAZILIAN WAY TO DEAL WITH RENEWABLE INTERMITTENCY The Brazilian solution was based on Large Hydropower reservoirs Continental Transmission system Complementary thermo power generation Share of thermopower generation in Brazilian Electricty Supply (%) Jannuary/ September/2012

7 THE NEW CHALLENGE The renewable diffusion has new features in Brazil Restrictions to new Hydropower plants Reduction of the regulation capacity of reservoirs Diffusion of new Renewables PDE 2024: Hydropower expansion concentrated in the North

8 THE NEW CHALLENGE The renewable diffusion has new features in Brazil Restrictions to new Hydropower plants Reduction of the regulation capacity of reservoirs Diffusion of new Renewables Reduction of the regulation capacity of reservoirs

9 GW SISTEMA ELÉTRICO EM TRANSFORMAÇÃO Wind and Solar Installed Capacity - GW The renewable diffusion has new features in Brazil Restrictions to new Hydropower plants Reduction of the regulation capacity of reservoirs Diffusion of new Renewables Eólica Solar

10 Brazilian Electricity Sector Crisis Hydro Reservoirs SE/CO The old solution is no longer adequate Energy security threatened Inadequate Power generating Matrix Financial crisis Expansion paralyzed Spot Price SE/CO R$/MWh Monthly

11 Brazilian Electricity Sector Crisis Expansive Therpower Generation The old solution is no longer adequate Energy security threatened Inadequate Power generating Matrix Financial crisis Expansion paralyzed Monthly cost > R$ 0.6 bilion

12 Brazilian Electricity Sector Crisis The old solution is no longer adequate Energy security threatened Inadequate Power generating Matrix Financial crisis Expansion paralyzed MP 579 Price control on Electricty prices Drought and High Spot Prices Revenue Deficit Distribution: US$ 12 bi Hydro Generators: US$ 6 bi

13 Brazilian Electricity Sector Crisis The old solution is no longer adequate Energy security threatened Inadequate Power generating Matrix Financial crisis Expansion paralyzed

14 Brazilian Electricity Sector Crisis The old solution is no longer adequate Energy security threatened Inadequate Power generating Matrix Financial crisis Expansion paralyzed Power sector under review

15 WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? NEW OPERATIONAL PARADIGM New role of reservoirs water has higher value Thermopower swicthes to the base of the load curve How to use reservoir to administrate intermittency of new renewables? Complementarity benefits? 15

16 WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? NEW ROLE OF THERMOPOWER Share of thermopower generation in total load (%) Source: Own elaboration. ONS data. Nowadays, cost is unbearable. Is there lower price gas available to thermopower? Oil and LNG Domestic natural gas 16

17 WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? ENERGY POLICY Critical situation turns energy policy measures more atractive Opportunity cost increases Boost diffusion of renewable energy Solar Distributed generation becomes more competitive (not only PV) Energy efficiency reduces the need for expansion. 17

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