Renewable Energy Integration Studies for Power Sector Planning

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy Integration Studies for Power Sector Planning Amy Rose, Ph.D. National Renewable Energy Laboratory November 17, 2017

2 What is a grid integration study? A grid integration study is used to evaluate a power system with high levels of variable renewable energy (VRE). Source: Greening the Grid Scaling Up Renewable Energy Generation: Aligning Targets and Incentives with Grid Integration Considerations NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 2

3 Types of grid integration studies Capacity Expansion Study Objective Identify where, how much, and what types of infrastructure investments to achieve VRE targets Time Horizon Long term (e.g., years) Production Cost Study Assess the impacts of VRE on power system operations 1 year, typically at hourly or subhourly intervals Power Flow Study Test the ability of the system to respond to realtime disturbances Seconds to minutes NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 3

4 Types of grid integration studies Capacity Expansion Study Objective Identify where, how much, and what types of infrastructure investments to achieve VRE targets Time Horizon Long term (e.g., years) Production Cost Study Assess the impacts of VRE on power system operations 1 year, typically at hourly or subhourly intervals Power Flow Study Test the ability of the system to respond to realtime disturbances Seconds to minutes NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 4

5 Production cost models can address a wide range of questions How would different levels of VRE impact system operations and costs? What is the value of storage or demand response in the system? How much flexibility is in the system to respond to unforeseen events or forecast errors? How does transmission congestion impact system operations and locational marginal prices? How to changes in market or operating rules impact system operations and system costs? No two studies look alike each is customized to investigate a particular concern NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 5

6 Examples of Grid Integration Studies Eastern US: 30% energy from VRE by 2026 India: 160 GW wind and solar by 2022 Kazakhstan: 10% energy from VRE by 2030 Mexico: Coordinated planning & operations US: value of strengthening regional connections within US Philippines: VRE siting strategies and installation targets South Africa: VRE planning and installation targets NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 6

7 Kazakhstan Grid Integration Study Electricity Produc on by Energy Source (% of total) % 6% 10% Coal Hydro Oil Natural Gas Wind & Solar Source: IEA Statistics 2014 (iea.org/stats/index.asp) What are the operational impacts of Kazakhstan s VRE targets? Could Kazakhstan exceed these targets? What are possible regulatory or operational actions to minimize operating constraints? NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 7

8 Kazakhstan Operational Model Objective: Assess the impacts of different penetrations of VRE Generation Profile Jan 27, Total Plant Starts Imports NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 8

9 Kazakhstan 2030? NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 9

10 Questions Thank you! Amy Rose NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 10

11 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 11

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13 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

14 Mexico 14

15 What is a grid integration study? A grid integration study is used to evaluate a power system with high levels of variable renewable energy (VRE). What are the tradeoffs among generation and transmission investments to achieve renewable energy targets? How would different levels of VRE impact system operations, emissions, and costs? How would high levels of VRE impact grid stability after a disturbance? No two studies look alike each is customized to investigate a particular concern NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 15

16 India 16

17 Philippines 17