FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Transcription

1 December 19, 2009, Cpenhagen, Denmark FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE The final Cpenhagen Accrd reaffirms the imprtance f limiting glbal warming t 2 C, but current natinal cmmitments wuld lead t apprximately 3.9 C (7.0 F) warming by T clse that gap glbal emissins must peak within the next decade and fall apprximately 50% belw 1990 levels by 2050 (a cut f apprximately 60% belw current emissins). The sner the natins f the wrld begin t clse this gap the cheaper and easier it will be. The Climate Interactive research team frm Sustainability Institute, the MIT Slan Schl f Management, and Ventana Systems have analyzed the greenhuse gas emissins reductins targets stated in the final Cpenhagen Accrd and cmpared these with the emissins reductin cmmitments made by individual natins. The analysis, based n the C ROADS climate plicy simulatin mdel ( assumes that all natinal cmmitments ffered prir t and during the Cpenhagen meeting remain in frce, are verifiable and will be fully implemented. The Accrd adpted in Cpenhagen (accessed 19 December 2009) calls fr deep cuts in glbal emissins s as t hld the increase in glbal temperature belw 2 degrees Celsius cmpared t preindustrial levels. Simulatins f the C ROADS mdel shw that ding s requires glbal greenhuse gas emissins t peak by 2020 and then fall 50% belw 1990 levels by 2050 (a cut f apprximately 60% belw current emissins). Hwever, simulatins f the C ROADS mdel shw a large gap between the targets in the final Cpenhagen agreement and the cmmitments ffered by individual natins. Using the C ROADS mdel, the researchers estimate that current cnfirmed prpsals (that is, submissins t the UNFCCC r fficial gvernment psitins) wuld raise expected glbal mean temperature by 3.9 C (7.0 F) by Including cnditinal prpsals, legislatin under debate and unfficial gvernment statements wuld lwer expected warming t an increase f apprximately 2.9 C (5.2 F) ver preindustrial levels. Full details and assumptins are at cp15 analysis and press releases. The fllwing graphs shw simulatin results frm the C ROADS mdel fr emissins (in GtCO 2e/year), atmspheric greenhuse gas cncentratins (ppm f CO 2e), expected glbal mean surface temperature ( C and F), and expected sea level rise (mm) fr fur scenaris: business as usual (calibrated t the IPCC A1FI scenari), current cnfirmed cmmitments, ptential cmmitments, and the lw emissins path required t achieve an expected warming f 2 C ver preindustrial levels. In the lw emissins path, glbal CO2e emissins peak by 2020 and fall by 50% f the 1990 level by 2050, remaining cnstant after that. The 50% glbal emissins reductin by 2050 can be accmplished by cmbinatins f reductins in emissins frm fssil fuel cmbustin and cement prductin and by reductins in emissins frm land use and land use change.

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4 Climate Interactive researcher and MIT Prfessr Jhn Sterman cmments If yu pur water int yur bathtub faster that it drains ut, the level f water in the tub will rise. In exactly the same way, the wrld currently purs abut twice as much CO 2 int the atmsphere each year than nature can remve, increasing the cncentratins f greenhuse gases that drive cntinued warming, sea level rise, and ther climate changes that pse grave risks t ur ecnmy and welfare (see idea/05/carbnbath). In the figure belw, the panel n the left shws glbal CO 2 emissins under business as usual (IPCC A1FI) cmpared t the remval f CO 2 frm the atmsphere, as it disslves in the cean and is taken up by bimass. The panel n the right shws the cncentratin f CO 2 in the atmsphere. Nte that emissins cntinually exceed the remval f CO 2 frm the atmsphere. Therefre atmspheric CO2 cncentratins rise thrughut the century. Further, because the gap between emissins and net remval widens, the rate f increase in atmspheric cncentratins grws, exceeding 900 ppm by Nte that net CO 2 remval frm the atmsphere als grws as CO 2 cncentratins rise: higher CO 2 cncentratins increase the rate at which CO 2 disslves in the surface layer f the cean and als the rate at which CO 2 is taken up by bimass. Hwever, the increase is less than prprtinal, because the sinks taking up that carbn begin t saturate: the ability f bimass t take up additinal CO 2 thrugh phtsynthesis becmes limited by the availability f ther nutrients, and the greater the cncentratin f disslved CO 2 in the cean, the less CO 2 can be absrbed. The graph belw shws the balance between emissins and net CO 2 remval in the lw emissins path. Nw, glbal CO 2 emissins peak befre 2020 and fall by 50% cmpared t the 1990 value (abut 60% cmpared t recent values). The bathtub is nearly in balance: emissins are nw nly slightly greater than net CO 2 remval, s the rate f increase in atmspheric CO2 is much lwer, staying under 500 ppm by 2100 (nte that these graphs shw CO 2 nly; the ttal radiative frcing that drives glbal warming als depends n the cncentratins f ther greenhuse gases). In the simulatins abve anthrpgenic emissins f these ther gases are assumed t fall tgether with CO 2.

5 The lnger we delay the emissins reductins required t stabilize greenhuse gas cncentratins, the mre cstly it will be t cut emissins, the wrse warming will be and the mre the peple f the wrld, rich and pr, will suffer. The lnger we delay, the greater the risk that warming will trigger psitive feedback lps in the climate system that can limit the ability f the land and ceans t remve CO 2 frm the atmsphere, causing still faster accumulatin f CO 2 in the atmsphere and still mre warming, in a vicius cycle. The gd news is that there are many pprtunities t cut emissins tday, prfitably, with technlgies fr efficiency, and fr clean, renewable energy. And the faster we d s, the cheaper it gets: thrugh R&D, scale ecnmies and learning, every megawatt f slar and wind we build tday lwers the csts f the next ne, further bsting demand fr clean energy and cutting emissins in a virtuus cycle. The natins whse plicies drive these psitive feedbacks the fastest will create jbs and build the industries that will dminate the ecnmy f the future.

6 Ntes Fr Editrs: The C ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decisin Supprt) climate plicy simulatr is a scientifically sund tl that enables users t rapidly evaluate the impact f natinal greenhuse gas (GHG) emissins reductin plicies n key climate impacts including per capita emissins, atmspheric GHG cncentratins, mean glbal temperature and sea level, thrugh C ROADS has been carefully calibrated t the best available peer reviewed science, including the Furth Assessment Reprt f the IPCC. The scientific review panel that assessed the mdel cncluded that C ROADS reprduces the respnse prperties f state f the art three dimensinal climate mdels very well... Given the mdel s capabilities and its clse alignment with a range f scenaris published in the Furth Assessment Reprt f the IPCC we supprt its widespread use amng a brad range f users and recmmend that it be cnsidered as an fficial United Natins tl. C ROADS was develped by the Sustainability Institute, MIT Slan Schl f Management, and Ventana Systems. Full dcumentatin and details are available at C ROADS is based n simulatin mdeling riginally cnducted at MIT and has been develped by a partnership f MIT s Slan Schl f Management, Sustainability Institute and Ventana Systems. C ROADS draws upn and is intended t cmplement the insights f ther, mre disaggregated mdels such as MAGICC, MINICAM, EPPA, AIM and MERGE. The develpment and use f C ROADS has been supprted by Active Philanthrpy, Zennström Philanthrpies, The Mrgan Family Fundatin, The Rckefeller Brthers Fund and thers. Sustainability Institute is a nn prfit rganizatin based in Hartland, VT, USA. It was funded by Dnella Meadws in Current prjects at SI include simulatin mdeling f climate change and public health and the Dnella Meadws Leadership Fellws Prgram. Fr Mre Infrmatin: Dr. Elizabeth Sawin Sustainability Institute bethsawin@sustainer.rg Andrew Jnes Sustainability Institute apjnes@sustainer.rg Prfessr Jhn Sterman MIT Slan Schl f Management jsterman@mit.edu General Infrmatin n the Sustainability Institute: Bas de Leeuw Executive Directr, Sustainability Institute bas.deleeuw@sustainer.rg X100 (ffice) Fr further infrmatin please visit: r Inquires at inf@sustainer.rg