The Changing Cold Regions Network: Atmospheric, Cryospheric, Ecological and Hydrological Change in the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River Basins, Canada

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1 The Changing Cold Regions Network: Atmospheric, Cryospheric, Ecological and Hydrological Change in the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River Basins, Canada John Pomeroy 1,2, Howard Wheater 2,1, William Quinton 3, Ronald Stewart 4 and the Changing Cold Regions Network Team 1 Centre for Hydrology & 2 Global Institute for Water Security University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada 3 Centre for Cold Regions & Water Science, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada 4 Dept. of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg

2 CCRN: Changing Cold Regions Network

3 The Network Recently funded by NSERC s Climate Change and Atmosphere Research Initiative ($5 million) to an application submitted by Howard Wheater et al. Leveraging $24 million in kind support Linked to GEWEX, CLIC, GEO 36 Canadian researchers 15 collaborators (Canada, USA, China, UK, France, Germany)

4 Canada s Western Interior Cold Regions Arctic Sub-arctic Boreal Forest Rocky Mountains Prairies

5 Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis Effects of climate change? Change in air temperature (K) (comparison with mean) CanESM2 model, RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 experiments, 11-year running mean

6 Issues Rapid environmental change in the cold northern interior of North America is being driven by changing climate (warmer, more extremes) Manifest in interactions amongst weather, hydrology, cryosphere, ecosystems Rapid population increase, industrialization and demand for agricultural production is increasing water demand Vast conservation areas, ecosystem requirements, indigenous populations and downstream waters are vulnerable to changes in hydrological cycling and water supply.

7 Declining Spring Snowcover One to two month decline in snow covered period in Canadian western cordillera observed from satellites Ross Brown, Environment Canada

8 Retreating Glaciers Peyto Glacier total glacier area loss: North Sask River Basin 23% South Sask River Basin 37% Projected to continue into the future Indicator of mountain climate change ?? Demuth & Pietronrio

9 Sequential LiDAR Ice Peyto Glacier Demuth + Hopkinson

10 Mean March Flow m3/sec Spring Mountain Discharge is Increasing Slightly Winter flows small and rising somewhat 12 Bow River at Banff, Mean March Flow Trend +15.2% since 1910, Statistically Significant at 99.9% Probability Year

11 Mean August Flow m3/sec Summer Mountain Discharge is Declining Rapidly Late summer flows large and dropping rapidly Bow River at Banff, Mean August Flow Trend -24.9% since 1910, Statistically Significant at 99.9% Probability Year

12 Prairie Streamflow very seasonal Smith Creek, Saskatchewan 25 Drainage area ~ 450 km 2 Streamflow m 3 per second Average High Year 2000 Low Year No baseflow from groundwater 27-Dec 27-Nov 28-Oct 28-Sep 29-Aug 30-Jul 30-Jun 31-May 01-May 01-Apr 02-Mar 31-Jan 01-Jan Hydrological drought can be viewed as the absence of prairie runoff

13 Prairie Drought of Most Expensive Natural Disaster in Canadian History $5.8 billion decline in GDP $3.6 billion drop in agricultural production, ,000 jobs lost forest fires dust storms

14 Spatial Variation of Evapotranspiration (Drought vs Pluvial) Mean for normal period 352 mm Drought period: distribution wide, variance large, median >> mean Wetter period: distribution symmetric, variance greatly reduced Drought Wet Probability density of evapotranspiration Armstrong + Pomeroy

15 Streamflow Increasing for Some Prairie Streams Larger storm volumes, rain/snow proportion increasing

16 William Quinton Discontinuous Permafrost Decrease: -30% in 53 Years Years Ft Simpson, NWT degrees C

17 Change in Permafrost Cover Peat Plateau Area (underlain by permafrost) 1947: 70% 1970: 54% 1977: 53% 2000: 49% 2008: 43% William Quinton

18 Janowicz Northern Mountain Rivers have Increasing Peak Flows Due to Melting Glaciers Discharge (m 3 /s) Atlin River Northern continental glaciers & icefields are melting rapidly and strongly affecting summer river flow

19 Shrub Tundra expanding in Arctic effects on accumulation, melt, runoff

20 Arctic Rivers have Decreasing Peak Summer Flows Discharge (m 3 /s) Porcupine River Discharge (m 3 /s) Firth River Decreased soil moisture Longer melt due to shrub advance Janowicz

21 CCRN Focus Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River Basins both drain the Western Cordillera and flow to the east and north respectively Coupled response of atmospheric, hydrological, cryospheric and ecological systems to change at multiple scales from small scale to large river basins to the regional domain. Observe, simulate, diagnose and predict the processes and dynamics of Earth system change

22 Saskatchewan River Basin Area 340,000 km 2 -Drains from Canadian Rockies in Alberta, through Saskatchewan to Manitoba and feeds Lake Winnipeg

23 Saskatchewan River Basin One of the most extreme and variable climates in the world major droughts and floods Transition in aridity from wet mountain headwaters to semiarid grasslands and sub-humid forests Home to 80% of Canada s agricultural production and strategically-important natural resources Rapidly growing population and economy Headwaters part of the largest UNESCO World Heritage reserve Water managed for irrigation, hydroelectricity, urban and industrial supply New GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Study Basin

24 Mackenzie River Basin Area = 1.8 million km 2. Drains from western cordillera, sub-arctic and boreal forest and flows to the Arctic Ocean via the Northwest Territories

25 Mackenzie River Basin Cold continental to polar climate with extremely cold winters Permafrost covers 75% of the basin area Massive oil sand, shale gas and conventional oil and gas reserves, some in permafrost terrain. Water required for hydraulic fracturing and oil sands extraction. Headwaters part of largest UNESCO World Heritage reserve - natural ecosystems are largely intact in many sections and support downstream aboriginal societies. Water managed for hydroelectricity, abstracted for energy production Former GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Study Basin (MAGS)

26 Water, Ecosystem, Cryosphere and Climate Observatories A network of WECC Observatories combine meteorological, hydrological, ecosystem, and cryospheric observations with multi-scale coupled models from the surface to the atmosphere.

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28 Thematic Approach A. Observed Earth System Change in Cold Regions - inventory and statistical evaluation B. Improved Understanding and Diagnosis of Local Scale Change C. Upscaling for improved Atmospheric Modelling and River Basin Scale Prediction D. Analysis and Prediction of Regional and Large Scale Variability and Change E. Outreach

29 Theme A: Observed Change How have the hydrological, ecological, cryospheric and atmospheric components of the Earth system changed over the last 30 years in response to climate warming? What are the collective large scale trends and variability of the Earth system? Local scale Biome to regional scale Lower Marmot Creek

30 Theme B: Diagnosis of Local Scale Change How have interacting Earth system processes changed in response to changing climate? How can fine-scale process models be improved to better diagnose for key factors governing change?; What are the interactions amongst climatic, hydrological, ecological and cryospheric drivers, processes and feedbacks, and thresholds leading to system changes at local scales? Process studies Improved local scale models Diagnosis of past changes Alpine snowpack - CRHM TIN-based modelling

31 Theme C: Upscaling Models for Prediction How can our large-scale predictive models be improved to better account for the changing Earth system and its atmospheric feedbacks? Algorithm development for MESH Large scale basin application and testing

32 Theme D: Analysis and Prediction of Large Scale Change What governs the observed trends and variability in largescale aspects of the Earth system and how well are these factors and effects represented in current models? What are the projected regional scale effects of Earth system change on climate, land and water resources? Large scale land surface and climate controls Changing climate, land surface and large scale hydrology Atmospheric circulations, temperature and precipitation Water resources, cryosphere and ecosystems Probability of water resource system failure due to upstream climate change, South Saskatchewan River

33 Theme E: Outreach How do we apply and transfer our results to government and other stakeholders? user Community Workshops, popular science articles in the public media, development of short-courses on predictive tools and other issues

34 CCRN Structure Jim Bruce, Chair of BOD Board of Directors International Advisory Panel Howard Wheater (UofS, PI and Chair of Science Committee Secretariat Themes to Teams cross-cuts Science Committee CCRN Research Themes Sub-themes Outreach Committee Science Committee Sean Carey (McMaster U) Al Howard (AAFC) Murray Mackay (EC) Phil Marsh (EC) Alain Pietroniro (EC) John Pomeroy (UofS) William Quinton (WLU) Ronald Stewart (UM) Merritt Turetsky (WLU) 36 Canadian Researchers from University and Government

35 The Future Over the next five years, CCRN will Improve our understanding of recent Earth system change in the cold interior of western and northern Canada Advance water, weather, climate and environmental prediction Improve our understanding of Earth system processes and their representation in hydrological, atmospheric and ecological models Enhance our capability for water management Train the next generation of Earth System Scientists Provide high quality datasets for change assessment and model verification