Key Developments in the U.S. Power Market

Transcription

1 Key Developments in the U.S. Power Market Lessons for Europe John J. Easton, Jr. Vice President, International Programs Edison Electric Institute European Power Generation Strategy Summit December 3-5, 2012 Prague, Czech Republic

2 Nothing travels faster than light, with the possible exception of bad news, which follows its own rules - Douglas Adams

3 Bright Future

4 Total Installed Capacity

5 In 2010, U. S. electricity generation was 70%fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable

6 The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2010)

7 The average delivered price of coal to electricity generators varies widely across U. S. regions transport costs are a key reason

8 U.S. Electricity Output from Natural Gas and Coal Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly

9 While electricity consumption grows by 23% over the projection, the annual rate of growth slows

10 EPA Regulations Affecting Coal Plants Cross-State Air Pollution Rule August Eastern States Covered Significant Reductions in SO2 and NOx By 2014: SO2 reductions 73 % below 2005 levels NOx reductions 54 % below 2005 levels Goal: To control Ozone and Fine Particulates Appellate Court vacated rule in August 2012

11 EPA Regulations Affecting Coal Plants Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) Dec 2011 Covers Coal and Oil Electric Generating Units (EGUs) > 25 MW 1400 Units Affected: 1100 Coal and 300 Oil 90 % Reduction of Mercury from Coal Plants Up to 4 years to comply (fifth year possible) Legal challenges and Congressional review

12 EPA Regulations Affecting Coal Plants Carbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plants April pounds of CO2 per megawatt-hour Practical effect eliminates new coal plants Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plants may not be able to meet standard under normal, real-world operating conditions. New coal plants would have to use CCS, which has not been commercially demonstrated at utility scale. EEI recommending separate standards for coal-based units and NGCC units Coal- at least 2000 pounds of CO 2 per megawatt-hour NGCC no lower than 1100 pounds of CO 2 per megawatt-hour

13 U.S. Coal Fleet Retirement Announcements

14 Coal Plant Retirements Influencing Factors EPA Air Quality Regulations Natural Gas Prices Economic Growth Age, Heat Rates, Lack of FGD Energy Information Administration (EIA), July 31, 2012 Reference Case 49 GW by 2020 The Brattle Group, October 1, GW to 77 GW in next 5 years (25 GW higher than previously estimated)

15 Projected Retirements of Coal-Fired Generators

16 Coal to Gas Generation Example Southern Company example 5 years ago 16% gas generation 70% coal generation % gas Generation 35% coal generation

17 Shale Gas Widely Dispersed

18 Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas productions sources

19 Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption

20 EIA s natural gas price projections for AEO 2012 Early Release

21 Reference case electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and natural gas

22 Non-hydro renewable sources more than double between 2010 and 2035

23 U. S. Wind Resources

24 Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies / September states,+ Washington DC and 2 territories,have Renewable Portfolio Standards (8 states and 2 territories have renewable portfolio goals).

25 Net Metering / October states, + Washington DC & 4 territories, have adopted a net metering policy. Note: Numbers indicate individual system capacity limit in kilowatts. Some limits vary by customer type, technology and/or application. Other limits might also apply. This map generally does not address statutory changes until administrative rules have been adopted to implement such changes.

26 Location of Projected New Nuclear Power Reactors

27 New Nuclear Plant Status New Nuclear Plant Status Status Company Location (Facility) Design # of Units Under Construction (5) Early Site Permit (ESP) Construction / Operating License Submittal Docket Date Approval Date Southern Company Burke County, GA (Vogtle 3, 4) AP Approved August /31/08 5/30/08 2/10/12 South Carolina Electric & Gas Jenkinsville, SC (Summer 2, 3) AP NA 3/27/08 7/31/08 3/30/12 Tennessee Valley Authority Rhea County, TN (Watts Bar 2)* Gen II PWR 1 NA Detroit Edison Newport, MI (Fermi 3) ESBWR 1-9/18/08 11/25/08 Dominion Louisa County, VA (North Anna 3) APWR 1 Approved November /27/07 1/28/08 Duke Energy Cherokee County, SC (William States Lee 1, 2) AP /13/07 2/25/08 Miami-Dade County, FL (Turkey Florida Power & Light AP /30/09 9/8/09 Point 6, 7) Under Active NRC Review Luminant Glen Rose, TX (Comanche Peak 3, APWR 2-9/19/08 12/2/08 4) (10 applications; 16 units) PPL Corp. / Unistar Luzerne County, PA (Bell Bend) EPR 1-10/10/08 12/19/08 Suspended NRC Review Early Site Permits Progress Energy Wake County, NC (Harris 2, 3) AP /19/08 4/17/08 Progress Energy Levy County, FL (Levy 1, 2) AP /30/08 10/6/08 South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company Matagorda County, TX (South Texas Project 3,4) ABWR 2-9/20/07 11/29/07 UniStar Calvert County, MD (Calvert Cliffs 3) EPR 1-7/13/07 & 3/14/08 1/25/08 & 6/3/08 Ameren Fulton, MO (Callaway 2) EPR 1-7/24/08 Entergy West Feliciana Parish, LA (River Bend 3) ESBWR 1-9/25/08 12/4/08 Entergy (NuStart ) Claiborne County, MS (Grand Gulf) ESBWR 1 Approved April /27/08 4/17/08 TVA (NuStart ) Jackson County, AL (Bellefonte 3, 4) AP /30/07 1/18/08 UniStar Oswego County, NY (Nine Mile Point 3) EPR 1-9/30/08 12/12/08 Exelon Clinton, IL (Clinton) tbd - Approved March 2007 tbd Exelon Victoria County, TX tbd - Withdrawn August 2012 Withdrawn PSEG Lower Alloways Creek, NJ (Salem/Hope Creek) tbd - Submitted May 2010 tbd Amarillo Power / Unistar Amarillo, TX EPR 1 - tbd Ameren / Westinghouse Fulton, MO (Callaway) SMR** tbd Under consideration Blue Castle Holdings, LLC Green River, UT Under Consideration Southern Company tbd tbd tbd tbd tbd Southern Ohio Clean Energy Park Alliance Piketon, OH - - Under consideration Under consideration TVA / Generation mpower*** Roane County, TN (Clinch River) SMR** 6 Under consideration * TVA suspended construction of Watts Bar 2 in On July 2008, NRC issued an Order allowing TVA to resume construction. ** SMR = small modular reactor, usually 350 or fewer MW *** Generation mpower is a small modular reactor development company formed jointly by Babcock & Wilcox and Bechtel. NRC New Nuclear Plant Review Schedules Updated: 9/12

28 United States Government Policy President Obama U.S. House of Representatives U.S. Senate Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) State Legislatures and Regulators Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Department of Interior (DOI)

29 Obama Energy Agenda All-of-the-Above Strategy Invest in a Clean Energy Future Promote Energy Efficiency Reduce our Dependence on Oil Tackle the issue of Climate Change

30 Contact Information John J. Easton, Jr. Vice President, International Programs Edison Electric Institute